Woodbine 9/19/2021 – by Drew Coatney

Race 2: OC $62k 6.5f (T, outer) – looking to play doubles 2 w 4 if probable will pays are above 6-1 as I figure the true parlay will pay between 5-1 and 6-1 (2/1 horse into a even money horse).

  • Spot Play: #2 Toffen (5/2) Without much speed here this horse looks very logical. Last out did all the hard work to be passed by Boardroom and the likes. I’ll excuse that effort because of the hot pace set, wrong surface, and bit of a layoff. Fair value feels like 2-1 and I believe we’ll see that as Roman d’Oro and Rosebud’s Hope will take money.

Race 3: Ontario Racing Stakes 5f (T, inner)

  • Spot Play: #4 Diamond City (2-1) Easy to look and say “speed and fade” type, but I like the looks here. On debut got sloppy down the lane after setting hot fractions. Last out set hot fractions again, on the wrong surface, but was able to run much more efficiently down the lane. I think this horse gets loose and becomes a turf sprinting monster at Woodbine. The tight inner turns are significant as no other horse will really be able to make up ground until they tip for hope, giving this runner a huge advantage if has already opened up a few lengths.

Race 7: WO Cares $125k 5f (T, inner) – there’s others I could play if the “what if” pace scenario unfolds, but I just don’t see them catching this top pick.

  • Most Logical: #5 Fulminate (2-1) Last out had a bog to run over and set hot fractions. Two back ran a great race to build a foundation on top of. With Lasix added and not a whole lot of speed in here, this one might be clear. Again, tight turns of the inner often favor speed horses as it is harder to make a move around those turns vs. the outer.

Race 8: Natalma Stakes G1 8f (T, outer) – the other speeds have been gifted easy rail rides in past and can’t side with the likes of Diabolical

  • Most Logical: #2 Pizza Bianca (4-1) Ran them down impressively on debut and today should get a similar pace setup. Outside speed will allow this one to take back and make one run around the turn. Clement shipping this one for the second start shows he has confidence in this horse. I wish there was more class establish with that 7/22 race, but if odds stay above 3-1 that risk is compensated. And Rosario just ran lights out (See La Dragontea’s ride in the Canadian yesterday).
  • Next Best:  #5 Wild Beauty (5/2) TimeForm shows this one is below the rest of this bunch, so I must be missing something here if this one was established as the ML favorite.

Race 9: Summer Stakes G1 8f (T, outer)

  • Most Logical: #4 Albahr (7/5) Unlike the Wild Beauty question marks, this one has the upward trends we like to see in figures and much higher rating by 10 points than the Wild Beauty. Can be on the lead or stalk. Would imagine Frankie Detorri would want… what am I thinking, Frankie can do whatever he wants because he’s the GOAT.
  • Too Short: #3 Grafton Street (10-1) Tons of buzz for this horse and will likely be below 5-1. I will use in horizontals but nothing else.
  • Bad Favorite: #8 First Empire (5/2) Sure has speed but the PP line of “ridden out” makes it sound like this horse was confidently handled. This one was used hard early in the last race, then scrubbed on down most the stretch to find off the #6 Degree of Risk who was stalking and trying to mount the winning move.

Race 10: OC $40k 6f (AW) – tough bunch, hard to separate

  • Best Value: #6 Souper Classy (6-1) Figures fit and keeps improving. Has run two honest last out efforts and would expect that same today. Sit off the pace and make one run late.
  • Most Logical: #2 Combative (2-1) Has the best of speeds here, could be simple as that. Does have a habit of not winning going 2 for 16 lifetime and burning big time money. Will use but need a few backups.
  • Next Best: #5 Executive Search (4-1) Looks to have decent speed and should sit close to the lead.

Race 11: MOC $40k 8.5 (AW)

  • Most Logical: #2 Blast in the Snow (5-1) Gets an inside draw and should be able to workout a ground saving stalking trip. We know can already get the distance. Value line stands around 4-1.
  • Best Value: #13 Frosty Breeze (10-1) Connections putting this one up for sale for the first time. If we can get back to that form on June 20th.
  • Next Best: #11 I’m alone (4-1) Could be best of speed dropping in class.

Betting Strategy Goals

  • Have money, not looking for life changing scores
  • Have action throughout the card
  • Always feel comfortable
  • Have 3-4 plays / 80% of money

Total Bankroll = $50

  • R2 Double: 2 w 4 = $10 (value above 6-1) – I would imagine both these runners will be too low to play in win pools. If Toffen stays above 2-1, this moves to a $10 win be on that horse
  • R7 Pick 3 = 5 w 2,5 w 4 = $10 ($20 total) – to to nab some blind value into #4 Albahr
  • R9 Win = $20 #4 Albahr (7/5) – The price is going to be below evens, so hard to place win bets. If above evens will bet $20
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