Race 6: Mdn 6.5f (AW)
- Spot Play: #3 Shez a Sealy (20-1) Runner on debut for 2021 season dropped well out of it early and came running late. Tried turf last out and that didn’t go well. Has a respectable worktab and those MOC ranks are not as bad as they look. Expect to see this price drop to 10-1.
Race 7: Duchess Stakes 7f (AW)
- Most Logical: #5 Souper Munnings (10-1) Last out told us everything we need to know, comes off the long layoff, shows a new dimension by overcoming the adversity and stalking the field. Today gets the same distance, albeit over the all weather, and an even better pace setup.
- Best Value: #6 Miss Speedy (5/2) First time blinkers are coming off and that feels significant considering the massive cut back from the 8.5f back to a flat 7f. Runner has plenty of speed and could just be the best of this bunch.
- Defensive Use: #3 Hazelbrrok (8-1) Continues to improve every start and looks to only want to longer distance running. Last out one of the runners has already come back to score a listed stakes event over at Fort Erie. Could be another stalk and pounce contender, saving all the ground with that inside post draw.
Race 8: OC $40k 7.5f (T, inner) – same top pick for both AW or Turf if washes off
- Most Logical: #7 Monastery Lane (2-1) Looks to be the best of this bunch, running down the loose leaders in the last event and then firing well in the last two starts. Back form suggests can continue to run and improve. There’s not a ton of pace signed on here so would image can stay much closer to this bunch.
Race 9: Bold Venture G3 6.5f (AW)
- Most Logical: #4 Pink Lloyd (4/5) Is just the class of the field, tactical and should be a daylight winner. Value feels like evens as this runner continues to fire an honest effort, regardless of age. One more time for the ol’ boy.
- Best Value: #1 Magical Man (20-1) I’ve been chasing this horse a few times with the in and out pattern. I don’t see a ton of pace and could have a tactical edge being drawn to the inside. Pink Lloyd does like to stalk as well and will take on ground loss. Where this runner might (a big might) get the upper hand is if the pace heats up and the strong workout tab can finally be translated to the afternoon. I would imagne value for this horse should be north of 15-1.
Race 10: Alw 8.5f (T, inner) – again, watch for the rain off, either way tough race
- Most Logical: #11 Juan Pablo (5/2) Is supposed to win this right? Best figures and should have enough tactical speed to stay in touch with the field as they enter the far turn. Has a habit of hanging so will need to see 3-1.
- Best Value: #1 Dani’s Victory (15-1) Drexler is firing well first off the claim. Last few events this one has been closing into the slow-ish paces and getting up. Last out work has this one firing a bullet and you have to imagine the connections are trying to build that speed more in early.
- Next Best: #5 Court Battle (10-1) Drops out of the claiming ranks and into allowance company, however, there’s zero speed signed on. I would imagine they ask Hoyte to send and try to get loose. Without a ton of speed anywhere else, could just be as simple as that. Overall figures fit on paper, so that helps the chances. Value line around 8-1 still.
- Other Use: #7 Broadway (10-1) Simple approach for this defense use: second off layoff, strong work tab, figures fit, strong connections, etc.
- Have money, not looking for life changing scores
- Have action throughout the card
- Always feel comfortable
- Have 3-4 plays / 80% of money
- R6: $5 Win #3
- R7: $10 Win #5
- R7: P3 ($25)
- $10 5,6 w 7 w 4
- $5 3 w 7 w 4
- R8: $10 win #7