Woodbine 9/26/2021 – by Drew Coatney

Race 1: Mdn 8f (Off the Turf)

  • Spot Play: #3 Day Tripper (5/2) Went way too fast last time and faded late. Gets Lasix and a light bunch. Should be able to kick clear with ease. Value line around evens.

Race 6: MOC $40k 5f (T, inner)

  • Spot Play: #1 Silent Farewell (5/2) Last out let the front running horses go setting a 44 flat time. Instead of that pace falling apart those front runners ran on at the top of the stretch, leaving this one with a non-finish effort. Today should get an easy trip taking back on the rail and engage wide around the far turn.

Race 7: Clm n2L $25k (OFF the EP Taylor, so we’ll have to see who stays in this wide open event)

If #13 English Classic draws in, I still don’t think I can take a 1 for 31 horse who has floated around this level for some time now. Way too many knocks on the shorter priced horses, so searching for bombs.

  • Most Logical: #5 Stop the Humbug (8-1) Always fun putting a 1 for 23 horse, but here we are. Last out race over the inner made the first move stalking the pace and traveled 5w or so. Once clear faded and started to downline (slow down). Whereas the eventual winner had a bit more patience and saved horse until top of the stretch. Today on the outer, this horse will be able to make more of a gradual advance on the wider turns with more of an impact (running fast on tight turns is harder to gain ground).
  • Next Best: #7 Battle of Yorkton (10-1) Drops out of the allowance ranks into the N2L, getting a significant class drop. Lightly raced 5 year old is a consistent trier and new jockey might wake this horse up even more.
  • Best Value: #11 Download (20-1) Continues to run into slow paces, trying to make up ground. With a smidge of race luck and a wonky pace, this one is not out of it based on figures.
  • Consideration: #12 Grazely (10-1) Attfield owns and trains this runner coming back over to the turf. Has decent tactical speed and figures fit.
  • Defensive Use: #5 Carl G (4-1) Tactical speed and can might be lone speed. Drops back out of the OC ranks and into the n2L. Strong last workout. Trainer a bit ice cold sending out 20 horses with only 1 winner in last month.

Race 8: OC 5f (T, inner) – tough bunch

  • Most Logical: #4 Mas Chikilin (4-1) Has notched some great figures over the turf, one of which on the inner. Should have enough speed to clear the inside horses and then sit in the pocket as the outside speeds clear. Last time Boulanger was on this one, he got the W.
  • Next Best: #7 Red Frog (3-1) Will be able to turn the tables on the favorite Hitters Park. Has the speed and will be clear early.

Race 9: Clm $25k n2L 6f (AW) – tough bunch with bad favorite

  • Best Value: #6 Mr. Cool (10-1) Should be able to get loose and there’s zero other pace signed on.
  • Next Best: #3 Better Boogie (9/2) Blinkers go one for the first time and gets to try the easier N2L bunch. Strong workout tab shows there’s a chance to fire a big one.
  • Bad Favorite: #4 Beyond my Dreams (2-1) This one has had one good race. Based on TimeForm US (thanks DRF Formulator), that figure is on par with four or five other horses in here. The horse can win but don’t want to take a price that reflects a 33% of winning (value feels around 13%, between 6-1 and 8-1)

Race 10: Alw 8.5f (T, inner)

  • Most Logical: #10 Perseverancia (3-1) Last out ran respectably at the long distance with the stakes company. Two back ran a massive one that visually looked like a workout. Today gets plenty of inside speed to setup for a wide move around the turn and come running late. Should be 2-4L back at the first call. Value line around 5/2.
  • Longshot/fan-boy: #2 Say Hey (20-1) Pure pace angle for this longshot. Last out two slow of pace and wasn’t catching, two back tended the hot pace that fell apart, three back was strange with my running line “unhurried out of the gate, spotted field about 3-5L, unhurried as they came around the turn, didn’t really run into trouble as much as was just given a hand ride and drafting behind horses. Odd ride”. With more pace signed on an the easy inside draw to sit the pocket, will be interested to see if this one can pop at a huge price.
  • Consideration: #5 Dictate (8-1) Ran huge over the inner to break the maiden. Has the speed but the other inside speeds have me worried a duel might unfold.

Betting Goals

  • Have money, not looking for life changing scores
  • Have action throughout the card
  • Always feel comfortable
  • Have 3-4 plays / 80% of money

$97 Bankroll

  • R1: $20 Win #3 (evens or higher)
  • R6: $20 Win #5 (3/2 or higher)
  • R8: P3 ($57 Total)
      • ($10 base) 4 w 3,6 w 10 = $20
      • ($6 base) 7 w 3,6 w 10 = $12
      • ($2 base) 2,5,6 w 3,6 w 10 = $12
      • ($0.40 base) 1,3,8,9 w 3,6 w 10 = $2.40
      • ($4 base) 4,7 w 7 w 10 = $8
      • ($0.60 base) 2,5,6 w 7 w 10 = $1.8
      • ($0.20 base) 1,3,8,9 w 7 w 10 = $0.80
  • R10: if we’re still alive in the pick 3, I will hedge with the #2 horse Say Hey as the price will be 20-1. Theory here: yes this horse could help me score out in the P3s but to build tickets using both my logical runner in race 10 and this bomb in race 10 would cost too much equity for my small bankroll plays. Instead of building a massive ticket, I can put myself in a position where I can be alive to both of these runners for $200-500 bucks just by investing a straight win bet $10-20 on the bomb in the last. I wonder if others see the world this way. I’m also predicting that my top choice in the last race well be bet well below value lines, so leveraging the pick three pool to create a nice score instead of loading up $50 in the win pool at 6/5.

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