Woodbine 10/2/2021 – by Drew Coatney

Race 8: MOC $25k 6.5f (AW) – a group with many question marks. Will come down to price

  • Most Logical: #5 Perfect Picture (6-1) Last out ran a really great race finishing on well down the lane while tending to the hot pace. Today should be able to sit close to the front pack and use the finish well.
  • Next Best: #10 Thelonious (8-1) If this one can get away from the gate cleanly, excited to see what can happen. Last out smashed the gate and was bumped on both sides. Settled to the back, launched a massively wide bid and ran very well through the lane for a two year old.
  • Consideration: #1 Tara Tattoo (12-1) Another runner that showed some nice grit as a 2yr old being rated through the turn nicely and tried to grind up for the win. Stayed on well and may have a chance to step forward.
  • Can’t Trust: #3 Coo Bird (4-1) I don’t think this horse wants to go further than 5.5f. Sure is getting the class drop and has the best Beyer Figures but the pause… the addition of Lasix after trying four times for a trainer who is 0 for 26 at the meet and in the past five years is 7 for 149 overall (5% winners). Doesn’t shout confidence to take a short price in the volatile two year old ranks.

Race 9: Wonder Where Stakes 10f (T, outer)

  • Most Logical: #3 Munnyfor Ro (9/5) Will sit an absolute gem of a trip, getting to hunker down on the rail, make a move along the backstretch find space, and kick on clear. Has shown an ability to quicken in the longer events into a slow pace even (see CD 5/8/2021 and KEE 4/7/2021). Anything over 2-1 feels like nice value here.
  • Long shot: #2 Miss Marie (20-1) The first time Lasix is significant because I don’t think this runner fired at all last out. The addition of the Lasix may wake this runner up as she was all but gassed at the 1/8th pole and not making up any ground late. Will need a pace setup a step forward in figures, but that’s why we’ll see 20-1+ on this runner again. She’s an in-and-out type and could easily upset this tight bunch.

Race 10: OC $40k 9f (AW)

  • Best Value: #2 Us Navy Cross (8-1) Hopeful prospect was down on the NYRA and KEE circuit to begin. Ran a rough race over the yielding surface over a long layoff. Today gets back on firm and should have a good next outing. Overall Doubt we’ll see this price but if we can get anywhere near 4-1, that feels good.  Value line at 6-1.
  • Most Logical: #9 Green Fleet (2-1) Closer is cycling up for third start off layoff. Should get the nice trip outside. Looks to be right on the cusp of the win but don’t love the 2-1. Won’t leave off tickets but placing a win bet needs 3-1 or higher.
  • Defensive Use: #6 Jelgo (4-1) Could just keep improving and speed of the race here. Don’t love the easy leads in the past two races but could see that happening again here today.

Race 11: MOC $40k 7f (T, outer) – many coming out of an event on 9/11 where we saw nothing that gets our attention

  • Most Logical: #8 Lady moonshine (3-1) – Has a very impressive resume even though has yet to notch the first victory. Ran great on the outer on first asking. Then faced a series of tough matches, then on the inner where we know grinder styles don’t love. Today gets back to the outer, should sit wide and make a move around the turn and kick clear.

 

Bank Roll $66

Strategy: The two middle legs project to be too short of prices. I predict both will be 3/2 or lower on Munnyfo Ro and Lady Moonshine. Instead of trying to risk $50 to win $150 (assuming both runners would win), I’m taking to the horizontal pools to try and score out. 

 R8 P4 = $45 total

  • ($5 base bet) 1,5 w 3 w 2,6,9 w 8 = $30
  • ($2 base bet) 10 w 3 w 2,6,9 w 8 = $6
  • ($1 base bet) 1,5 w 2 w 2,6,9 w 8 = $6
  • ($1 base bet) 10 w 2 w 2,6,9 w 8 = $3

R8: P3 $21 total

  • ($3 base bet) 1,5 w 3 w 2,6,9 = $18
  • ($1 base bet) 10 w 3 w 2,6,9 = $3

If we bust out in the first race…

R9: P3 $36

  • ($10 base bet) 3 w 2,6,9 w 8 = $30
  • ($2 base bet) 2 w 2,6,9 w 8 = $6

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