Woodbine 10/3/2021 – by Drew Coatney

R3: Clm $25k n2L

Spot Play: #8 Hidden Identify (5/2) Had a massive run on debut with a monster gallop out. Next ran into a neutral pace flow at 2/5 and beaten a smidge. Tried to stretch out two back, not a good idea. Last out tried turf and didn’t run. Today gets the right surface, distance and pace setup. There are three speed horses in this race who must have the lead to win and that should setup perfectly for this pickto make one run late. It’s also notable the Casse/Barber claimed this $7.5k horse… Barber is buying horses for six figure sums so this feels odd to pull the trigger on such a small project. That would be like Bill Belichick recruiting a player out of Bluefield State College, that player must be special if he’s plucking out a draft pick from the Division 2 ranks.

R8: OC 9f (AW)

  • Best Value: #6 Solar (6-1) Good speed, highest figures, slight drop in class, hopefully saves more ground than last. Has shown an affinity to run on the all weather
  • Most Logical: #5 Moon over Montana (3-1) will get the perfect setup, has the tactical speed, doesn’t mind the added distance
  • Longshot/Underneath: #3 Seventyseven Stone (20-1) Continues to get unfavorable against the pace type of trips. Would expect this price to be nice again after failing three straight times. Ground saving rail ride.
  • Defensive Use #11 Antigone (9/2) Don’t love this wide draw in the two turn events. I find these wide draw types in the 9f configuration get stuck wide into the first turn more often than not. Runs competitively at this level. Only problem I have here is this runner will want the shame race flow as Moon Over Montana, who projects a much easier trip.

R9: Breeders Stakes with the change in the turf course, I’ll be fading #4 Safe Conduct as I predict this track to be tiring and want to find a horse that wants to run long and has shown an ability to handle boggy conditions. Remember Safe Conduct almost got snapped at the wire going shorter and had an easy trip.

  • Most Logical: #3 Riptide Rock (3-1) Ran well enough last out at the flat mile. Two back in the Queen’s Plate was pinched back and only one running late and against the pace. This one will take to the rail, establish a bit better position early, and then coming grinding down late to run down leg weary horses
  • Next Best: #1 British Royalty (30-1) Well here were are again, with the old favorite of ours. As I said above, I’m looking for a horse who can keep running, and this one fits that bill. Has had zero pace to run into lately. There’s too many trip notes on this horse to list them all, but maybe today is the day this horse decided to not find trouble.

Race 10: Ontario Fashion – main rival Amalfi Coast will likely get stuck on rail

  • Most Logical: #7 Boardroom  (3/5) Need we say more. I would like to see her put into the race a bit more as the short 6f doesn’t lend well to the “closer wide move”.
  • Longshot: #2 Summer Sunday (10-1) could get loose

Race 11 – Md $10k 8.5f (AW)

  • Most Logical: #2 Four Bounce (5-1) has nice speed and should work out the best trip, grabbing the rail before that first turn comes up. Al other rivals will be fighting to establish position while this horse is conserving energy on the lead, a winning combo. Drop in class helps, too.
  • Longshot: #8 Northern Conquest (8-1) – drops down in rank and could have that nice stalking speed There’s a bit more speed signed on than previous races, so like the chances.
  • Defensive Use: #6 Undefiled (4-1) These Casse runners always find a way to surprise, especially 3rd off. Should get the stalking trip and have a bit of pace to run into. Emma-Jayne stays aboard.

Bank Roll $60 Wagering Strategy

  • R3: Win Bet #8 Hidden Identity = $20
  • R8: Win Bet #6 Solar = $5
  • R9: Double 1,3 w 7 $15 base bet = $30 (will be looking at probables, anything below 8-1 with Riptide and 25-1 with British Royalty is bad value)
  • R10: Win Bet #2 Four Bounce = $5

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