Race 7: MOC for $25k tags 7.5f (T, inner two turns) – moving over to synthetic
- Best value: #2 Hullabaloo (12-1) Gets to try turf for the first time, drop in class, adds blinkers and has tactical speed. Last out was in a weird pace dynamic with the middle fraction was extremely quick and forced most all others near the front to begin downlining. Even still, this horse ran on well enough all things considered. Today should get the advantage of a rail ride near the lead, and even pace, and would expect a bit of quicken.
- Most Logical: #7 Awesomecrest (4-1) Was very much against the pace flow and lacked patience around the far turn by making the move way too early. Today doesn’t have a ton of pace to run into, but I don’t think this runner needs that much of a pace setup considering this runner is improving each and every start and not in for a tag.
- Next Best: #9 More Chances (3-1) Is going to have a very tough trip from the wide out post for a runner who likes to be up near the lead (trying to cut over in the short run into the first turn is always tough at the 7.5 inner distance). Either way, this runners take a step down in class and has back figures that could win in this event.
- Consideration: #4 Sun Forester (6-1) Closed well last out while being hindered at the start. Not sure if the pace will unfold but like the unexposed form.
Race 8: Mdn 8.5f (AW)
- Most Logical: #4 Join The Dance (2-1) Should have clear sailing early as this is the only runner with speed. Last trip was a mess and two back (debut race) was a bit of a non-finish clunker effort after hitting a wall of horses tipping for home. I think the longer distance will only help this youngster.
- Long shot: #8 Awesome Street (8-1) Rated well back on debut and ran well enough into that hot pace. The added distance should help this one run type with the Sire who does best running over the route all-weather.
Race 9: Overskate $100k 7.5f (off the turf)
- Best Value: #5 Derzkii (20-1) Have been chasing this one all year. The last three races we’ll toss out: terrible trip last out, two and three back too long without pace to run into. What I love is the strong race as a two year old over the inner. The figure earned was respectable and did it so impressively closing into the neutral pace but traveling wide. Today should get plenty of pace to run into and needs a little race luck to work out the trip. Fair value is 15-1 or higher.
- Next Best: #7 Forester’s Fortune (5-1) Pretty much betting that this horse will enjoy two turns more so than the flat one turn events. Some of the other runners that have already beaten this one, notably the short price of Not So Quiet, but they will have to navigate two turns and would project they’ll be burned up, paving the way for Forester or other closers to get into the frame late.
- Too short to back: #4 Not So Quiet (3/5) If this price jumps up to 2-1 this story is different, but at the price there’s too many question marks of distance and class. Last years winner only snuck away with a tiny margin of victory against horses who really stack up well among the other bunch in here. The reward is too great to risk that this one doesn’t get the prefect trip or pace.
Race 10: Mdn $20k 6f (AW) – ice cold single here with a horse we’ve been chasing
- Most Logical: #10 Gospel Hill (8-1) Really liked the early speed this horse showed on the 2021 debut and grit late in the race. Then we can make a case from there this horse went too long, too fast, or a combination of the both. Faces the easiest of class today. Just needs to work out a trip with as there’s other speed drawn inside which may cause problems. But we’ll be paid at 8-1 for taking such a risk.
