Woodbine 10/10/2021 – by Drew Coatney

Race 3: Durham Cup Stakes 8.5f (AW) – can’t imagine Mighty Heart connections are excited to be drawn inside

  • Most Logical: #2 Sir Winston (7/5) Will get the stalking run of the race as the other logicals in this race will likely hook up on the front. This horse has been a bit in and out but I think that’s due to the stiff competition with horses like Flagstaff. One of two Casse runners here today.
  • Next Best: # 3 Tap It To Win (3-1) Speed horse has shown an ability to get to the lead and stay. Would imagine that is the tactic today. The Mighty Heart camp knows this and won’t try to take back but instead try to take it to Tap it to Win early. Otherwise, there’s not chance chasing down a loose leader like this one.

Race 8: Cup and Saucer 8.5f (T, outer one turn) – might be able to unlock value with an exacta in this bunch

  • Best Value: #1 Spring Mountain (10-1) Clearly did not like the tight turns of the inner last out. Should be able to build on the debut figure earned over the outer course. Contreras gest back aboard and first time Lasix.
  • Next Best: #9 Brutality (15-1) Hindered by the bad start last out, forcing this one to the back of the pack. Ended up running on well enough late and against the pace flow. Would expect this one to be put more close to the pace but still stalking wide.
  • Defensive Use: # 8 Fast Feet (3-1) On the debut ran very well. Would imagine can repeat a similar effort with a race that looks to be void of speed. Kimura stays aboard.

Race 9: Ontario Matron Stakes 8.5f (AW)

  • Most Logical: #6 Skygaze (6/5) Best of speed and has a bit of finish. Four year old still with upside left in the hands of Casse. Value line stands at 2-1.
  • Next Best: #3 Afleet Katherine (6-1) Stuck two wide two back and ended up in a match race against Art of Almost at the top of the stretch. The table might be turned with Art of Almost getting stuck on the rail. If I were Stein, I would ride aggressively to make sure the other horses go with me and pin this main competitor on the rail. There’s a lot of “ifs” in that previous statement, so the price on the ML needs to be there.

Race 10: Mdn 5f (T inner) – easy favorite to fade

  • Most Logical: #4 Jackie’s Pride (5-1) Second off the bench, blinkers go on, trainer is 18% with a $6 ROI first time turf.
  • Next Best: #6 Raven Echo (12-1) Two back had a horrendous start and yet still clung on well to the pace and finished well. Last out was a bit outmatched and drops back down into the right pace. The wide draw will help this one stay out of trouble and with a clean start will stalk the pace and make one run late.
  • Consideration #1 Tragically Quewick (5/2) Blinkers on, strong work last out, just needs to workout a bit of a trip.
  • Bad Favorite: #2 Stribling (8/5) Too many question marks on this runner trying to break the maiden 13 times with only two second place finishes. The speed for this runner is not terribly impressive on the clock, so can’t imagine this one on the lead. Add to the mix this runner has to go on the tighter inner turns, who knows how this horse will respond.

Race 11: OC $40k 6f (AW)

  • Most Logical: #2 Have a Souper Day (3-1) Stalker has nice tactical speed and will be third start for new trainer Drexler. Kimura stays aboard and predict a pretty clean trip along the rail. Last out got stuck wide going the 6.5 so we’ll upgrade that number earned a bit.
  • Next Best: #5 Browning Island (8-1) Improving type that had an excuse two back and had a perfect trip last out. Tiller is 19% over 58 starts with maiden winners last out.
  • Consideration: #10 Kawacatoose (12-1) Best of the speed in here and should get the rail fairly easily. Got a bit of a freshening and should be ready to fire.
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