Race 6: MOC $40k 5.5f (AW)
- Best Bet/Most Logical #12 Demogorgon (6-1) Debuted very professionally to stalk the hot pace, pull herself into contention around the turn, and then only to come up a bit short as the pace around her collapsed. Today should be even more suited for this event getting Lasix, second start, and a half a panel off. Big jockey upgrade and a sharp workout has this one at the top of my list. Value line stands around 3-1.
- Next Best: #6 Olympic Fencer (10-1) Ran decent enough on debut, catching the gate pretty good on the way out, rushing up to the lead pack into the turn, and then stalled out a bit as the loose leader had an easy go of it. With the addition of Lasix, Kimura, and extra furlong to run into, this one might have the goods still. Value line around 8-1.
- Bad Favorite: #10 Loaded Vixen ( ) Everyone will see all the 1’s in the running line, the cut back, and think this speedster will get loose. However, those earned position calls were done at very slow paces. There’s bound to be a few more in here that will break on top above this one. Considering this horse has never passed another horse in all three starts, I’m waiting to let this one beat me at what I assume will be less than 5/2.
Race 7: Mdn 8f (T, outer) – tough race now that this is off the turf
- Most Logical: #1 Stylish Gent (3-1) Might just get loose here.
- Next Best: #10 Ready for the Lady (4-1) – Ran fairly well on debut and then ran in the Summer Stakes G1 with Albahr who is going to have a bright future. Today’s bunch should let this runner sit and make one run late.
- Consideration horse: #6 Lament (8-1) Second time starter for Casse with Stein who stays aboard, which surprises me considering the wide park job this one got last out. The rider and horse had the lead more or less but took back to forfeit all rail position and forced to travel 2-3w around the entire track. This horse will likely be sitting in the second flight of horses behind the speeds and may have an improvement step left.
- Consideration horse: #9 Rapper Zapper (8-1) Same story as above mostly, way too wide the entire way but ran a more honorable race. However, this runner is likely to get the exact wide trip with all the speed and middle types drawn to this runners inside. At least there’s only one turn to navigate this time around and the wider version should help this one quicken earlier.
- [was our top choice but now with the off the turf, fading this one] Most Logical: #4 Bartica (20-1) What a story we can weave with this runner: debut closed into slow fractions going the sprint distance, last out tried stretching out but forced off the turf and didn’t run a step. Why we have reason to believe today is twofold. Frist the foundation element of the debut race. That 60 Beyer earned doing it the hard way by closing into slow sprint fractions is impressive. Second, the inside runners will hook up and create a pace collapse. Value line stands around 6-1.
Race 8: Mdn 9f (AW)
- Most Logical: #6 Master McGrath (5-1) That debut race was even puzzling for track announcer Mr. Geller trying to paint the picture for his listener’s late in the stretch drive, “the rest of them… I just haven’t seen this much distance in a first time starter race”. Overall this horse ran on well enough to try and close the gap late down the lane, but the sprint distance felt too short for this one. Today should get a much more fair chance to stay in touch with the field over the route distance and close late. Kimura stays aboard for Casse. Value line at 9/2
- Best Value: #5 Maritime Mission (12-1) Two back was forced to get into the speed duel with being down on the inside and was committed to this. Love the conviction by Stein to not give up the rail, although he lost the battle and closers came running late to win. Last out was in tight most of the race and found running room late. Would like to see this one stalking right behind the two speeds in this race.
- Defensive Use: #2 Enchantme (9/2) Last out threw in a clunker because there were too many little hiccups during the running. Needs to find clear running room as this one is a grinder type who will come running late. 0 for 14 doesn’t have me excited but Contreras gets aboard to pilot a more clean trip. Value line at 8-1
Race 9: MOC 5.5f (AW) – so many cut back speed and fade types, such an open race
- Most Logical-ish: #8 Chancel (4-1) Ran two decent efforts over the all-weather surface, one of which tending to a hot pace coming off a very long layoff. The two turf tries and lackluster to say the least, so we’re hoping this horse wakes back up over synth. Value line is at 4-1.
- Next Best-ish: #2 Red Maple (8-1) Speed and fade type that might be best suited going just the 5.5 furlongs.
Race 10: Alw 8.5f (T, inner two turns) – now that this is off the turf, I don’t see much of a change in our top picks other than our confidence wavering
- Most Logical: #10 English Conqueror (5/2) should have the run of the race, stalk, sit wide, make late big wide around the turn. Even with the tight turns, this horse will be tactical and be near the lead pack.
- Next Best: #8 My Sea Cottage (4-1) Last out got stuck in a merri-go-round pace with some very very classy horses. Two back off the long break made the first move into the hot pace and couldn’t fend off the late charging runners (including #11Desolator who got the brilliant ride along the rail and tipping clear for wide open running room). This horse has still upside and two sneaky bad trips to his name.