Woodbine 10/23/2021 – by Drew Coatney

Race 3: Hendrie Stakes (G3) 6.5f (AW)

  • Best Value: #4 Toffen (8-1) Is an in-and-out type who has run some brilliant speed races and then some real clunkers. Today gets a paceless race and third off the bench cycle up on form. The workout tab suggests that this horse does like the AW. Value line is at 3-1 and I’m curious if the public will over bet this obvious angle we’re talking about above (speed, cycle-up, paceless race).
  • Most Logical: #2 Our Secret Agent (8/5) Should get a nice trip stalking along the rail but needs to use more speed than in previous races. Has the best TimeForm US figures and should really relish 6.5f.

Race 7: Princess Elizabeth 8.5f (AW) – what a tough race and Gary Barber has three in here. Look for tote clues.

  • Most Logical: #8 Baksheesh (3-1) Was trending upward very nicely until trying the turf in a graded stakes over a good going. Getting back onto the right surface at the right level should help things. Kimura keeping the mount is a good sign as him and Casse are 18% together in past five years (thanks DRF Formulator).
  • Next Best: #1 Broken Proposal (12-1) Debuted going the one turn mile distance over the turf and had some good finish, albeit with a pace collapse. But for me horses who can pass others on debut is a good sign of things to come. Changes turf to all-weather today and has to navigate the two turns. With so many in here having unexposed form, it’s easy to see this one hitting the board at least.
  • Considerations: all the other Casse runners…

Race 8: Clm $20k T (outer one turn)

  • Most Logical: #1 Bayou Belle (4-1) First after the claim for $15k tag for Drexler. Has ran very competitive numbers going longer and gets a nice cut back. Needs to show a bit earlier speed and I think the recent bullet workout indicates Drexler sees that and is trying to work in that speed.
  • Defensive Use: #3 Make No Mistake (3-1) Could just get loose and never look back. If no one pressures this runner early, an easy win.
  • Best Value: #4 Grateful Praise (8-1) Has tried to race over the good going while being stuck in the far post and then trapped on the rail. Could get a perfect stalking trip if the pace heats up between our top two choices. However, don’t think the pace will materialize enough, hence the third choice.

Race 9: MOC 7f (AW) – sets up for a pace collapse

  • Best Bet/Best Value: #1 Sun Forester (8-1) Last out ran into all of  the trouble. Also hindering this horse was the pace that never collapsed up front, even though the hot pace reported on TimeFormUS. Two back going the route into the neutral pace shows this horse can close if gets a clear run. Today gets the pace setup and just needs to walk out of the gate, sit the rail, and kick clear late without finding trouble. Value line 4-1 and best bet.
  • Most Logical: #3 Kodiak Mamba (5/2) Has improved Beyer-wise since coming to Woodbine. Hard to argue with a trainer that fires 23% on AW and a jockey change to Kimura may shake things up.

Race 10: MOC 6f (AW)

  • Best Value: #3 Veery (6-1) Tiller runner did things pretty well on debut, pulling herself into the race around the turn but coming up short in the final 1/8. Second starters for Tiller are 13% and this runner has some impressive works to her name.
  • Most Logical: #9 Ashbury (3-1) Runner was very wide one debut and had excuses closing into the slow pace. Next out earns a good figure running over the good outer turf. Today switches over to the all-weather for a trainer who strikes at 17% with this move. The jockey change is a positive sign
  • Bad Favorite: #6 Green Gables (5-1) Continues to have every reason to get the win and flops. Speed and fade type.

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