Race 7: Alw 6f (AW) – with so many “need the lead types”, I’m predicting the winning ride will be slightly off the pace
- Best Value: #5 Lucky Score (8-1) Last out ran decently stalking the slow pace and trying to pass in deep stretch, albeit green the final 1/8th and lugging in. Today’s race projects to have too many “need the lead types” where they likely will try to blitz and grab the lead, setting up perfectly for this horse to sit the pocket and tip out. Value line stands around 6-1 as that flash of green-ness and the dependency on the pace dynamic creates added uncertainty.
- Most Logical: #9 Red Hierarchy (6-1) Hard to see this runner not taking another step forward getting the second start in 2021. Four year old looks to have decent speed and some finish. Took money after throwing in a clunker after that long layoff. Today would expect the same, be bet down to around 3-1. Fair value is 6-1.
Race 8: Mdn 6.5f T (outer) – fun maiden race with many chances. I think the handicapping starts with the favorite. Does the class of those numbers earned and how do they translate to grass? My bet is too short to trust so we’re looking for a price.
- Best Value: #9 Arafat (10-1) Hard to argue with the best earned Beyer of the bunch on turf and has improved in every start. Gets Lasix for the first time but will be going out for a trainer who is 0 for 25 this meet. However, this horse will be sent to the lead and looks to have the best foundation entering here. Fair value is nothing below 6-1.
- Next Best: #10 Ghostliner (8-1) Casse Oxley runner for a massive purchase pricemakes first start at Woodbine. Has some impressive workouts and might just wake up going over a different surface.
- Consideration: #8 Money Printer (6-1) Competent connections geld this homebred who has had some green issues and a strangely high head carriage. Can make plenty of excuses for the two performance this year: wrong surface, too long, traveling wide, etc. Fair value stands around 6-1.
Race 9: Clm $20k 5f (T, inner) – always tough over the inner sprint distances
- Most Logical: #3 Forest Survivor (2-1) Keep it simple: best figures, drop in class, best of early speed, decent post draw. Fair value is 3/2.
- Next Best: #8 Hitters Park (3-1) Will be running from the back of the pack. The wide draw will make sure this horse doesn’t run into traffic problems early. I like that there’s an abundance of speed drawn to the inside that might create a hot pace, however, I don’t see this one passing our top choice in deep stretch.
Race 10: MOC 7f (AW) – going with some creative angles as the top of the market horses love to burn money and find ways to not win.
- Longshot Play: #8 Silver Smoke (20-1) With zero speed in this race, it’s hard to overlook this runner who has only raced once this year and gets blinkers and gelding for the first time. In the race two back, showed great speed from the wide post, near the front going 2w and just came up short. The workout tab is also impressive. I’m willing to take a shot on this runner at anything over 9-1.
- Next Best: #7 Star Scholar (10-1) In last two outings has tried to stay closer to the pace and we love to see that. Runners out of that last race have been performing well. Today should be able to sit wide and make one run late at this group that projects to be slow up front. Workout tab looks sharp and prior figures earned could win this event here.