Woodbine 10/30/2021 – by Drew Coatney

Race 3: Display Stakes 7f (AW)

  • Most Logical: #1 Ironstone (8/5) Should have this one locked up: best speed, improving, better going the middle distances between 6-7f. Fair value is even money. If anything less, we’ll look to place a half unit wager on our next runner.
  • Best Value: #2 Heat Merchant (6-1) Continued to stretch out longer and longer in each of the first three starts and improved Beyer-wise in each event. We’ll cross a line through the last race due to surface and company kept. Today gets plenty of pace and the perfect 7f to run into. Value line at 5-1.

Race 8: Coronation Futurity $250k 9f (AW)

  • Best Value: #12 Lament (10-1) On debut was strangled and ran inefficiently. Came back and ran a stormer closing into neutral fractions. Today should sit wide and have plenty of upside left.
  • Next Best: #11 Rum Cup (6-1) Easy to forgive the last two efforts as one was against Grafton Street, a horse Nick Luck thinks is still unexposed, and then two back had a mess of a trip. Speaking of that trip, the replay ALMOST looks like the jockey wrapped this one up at the 1/8th pole and the horse said, “nope, I can catch them” and the jockey reengaged because the horse wanted to. Needs another step forward figure-wise and will be flying late.
  • Logical: #6 God of Love (3-1) Too short of a price for my liking but looks to want the two turns. We have yet to see this runner explode on the all weather so won’t be leaning on heavily. Not impossible but not the most logical.
  • Long Shot: #7 Mad Mocha (30-1) I thought ran very well on debut stalking the pace 2w and made an early move. Building off that 66 Beyer should be no issue for a trainer who is 20% with 2 year olds. Hard to ignore at what will be a nice price.

 

Race 9: Glorious Song Stakes 7f (AW) – looks to be too many speed types only proven at the 6f or less distance. Fading the two outside horses to unlock value as think they will be both over-bet considering neither have faced much adversity yet.

  • Best Value: #6 Fifth Anniversary (12-1) I don’t think wanted to go the 5f on the turf last out and had to use too much early speed. The race two back showed promise for today’s running style: sit off the pace and make one run late. Needs to jump in figures but I don’t think that will be a problem based on the work tab.
  • Next Best: #1 Aubrieta (4-1) Took money in the last race to come up short. Today the distance fits better as this runner was coming on late in that last event. Would expect another step forward.

Race 10: OC $40k 6f (AW)

  • Most Logical: #3 Keep on Truckin (3-1) The elephant in the room is the massive layoff but the workout last recorded was a gate work, signaling to me this runner is ready to fire. Catherine Day-Phillips is 16% with a positive ROI coming off 180 day layoffs. This runner’s debut race lays over the field.
  • Next Best: #8 Derzkii (12-1) Has been on the three year old stakes trail and takes a drop in class. Last out ran VERY wide and pushed a horse by the name of Jelgo extremely wide into the first turn (Jelgo came back to finish a heck of a second, mark that horse down as a bet back). Good sign they’re running this one right back after that misshape last week. The muddy form shows some talent is still there. Value line around 8-1.

Race 11: OC $15k 6.5f (AW)

  • Most Logical: #9 O’Kratos (4-1) Couldn’t quite hold the speed on the turf last out. However, the speed should hold much better going shorter with less speed to the inside to compete with. Should get clear and grab run.
  • Next Best: #6 Kitten’s Solution (3-1) Should get the best of the stalking trips with enough early tactical speed to establish early position. Drexler is firing at 20% so hard to argue against

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