Woodbine 10/31/2021 – by Drew Coatney

Race 3: Ontario Damsel

  • Best Value: #2 Salty as Can Be (10-1) Hard to ignore this runner has climbed the Beyer ladder in each start except when trying to set the pace over the dirt. Has the best proven tactical speed over the all-weather and should get a dream of a trip. Big question of the race: how much track position will Munnyfor Ro give up on the rail? If #2 Salty as Can Be gets the first jump and rail, this could be a dream trip.
  • Most Logical: #1 Munny for Ro (2-1) I think wants a bit shorter; however, this runner will likely be stalking and might have enough class to push past this bunch in deep stretch.

Race 7: Alw 7f (AW)

  • Best Value: #9 Beat the System (12-1) Drexler gets the first off the claim and threw a bullet work before today’s races. Has the best lone speed today and Kimura gets aboard. Value line is 6-1.
  • Most Logical: #4 Antigone (4-1) Might be overlooked considering the form looks like this one wants to go longer and run into a pace. However, I think this distance should fit very well and have much more finish than the last few races due to cut back.
  • Considerations: 3, 2

Race 8: Ontario Derby 9f (AW) – against the favorite here #2 Dolder Grand considering the only win against winners was a pace setup against easier.

  • Best Value: #4 Swot Analysis (4-1) Second off the bench and is the lone speed in a group of closers. Workout tab is brilliant, so we can only imagine this runner is ready to fire.
  • Best Value: #5 Riptide Rock (5/2) I’m torn on this runner because I think wants longer but… remember we were discussing “does this one want to go long” when stretching out in the Queen’s Plate. I think this horse continues to get better and should show more tactical speed than last few marathon (almost) races.

Race 9: Clm $7.5k – spread like crazy, but top choice below

  • Top choice: #4 Four Knights (8-1) Has shown an ability to have tactical speed, albeit with slower paces on dirt. Moreover has shown an ability to run well over the Woodbine course. Does give you a bit of pause that Fort Erie is the preferred surface to run over this summer, but we won’t try to read too much into that.

Race 10: MC $7.5k 8.5f (AW) – only two horses in here I can trust, and those will be horses who can pass other horses as all the “lead types” are going to be fading hard

  • Most Logical: #6 Northern Conquest (3-1) Has the best of the tactical speeds of the top two selections and will be able to pass horses late down the lane
  • Next Best: #13 Suigu Start (4-1) Bit more of a deeper closer that will need to work out a trip from the far post. Doubt it will be too much of an issue as jockey will take back and try to save ground. However, there’s not enough pace in here to convince me this race will be won from so far off the lead.

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