Woodbine 11/6/2021 – by Drew Coatney

Race 8: Alw 8.5f (AW) – fun race for the throw down of the Casse runners with Barber and Win d’Oro ($650k) vs. Oxley and Milano ($1.3M).

  • Most Logical: #6 Milano (3-1) Massive $1.3M colt out of Into Mischief. That debut race was a wild one: broke inward, lost position and sat back of pack wide, started making move around far turn, shied from the whip at the 1/8 pole,  green down the lane, blew by. There’s absolutely talent with this runner overcoming all that adversity. If he can get his head right, this one is scary. There’s a story to tell that this one took a long time to get to the races after the hammer fell at that seven figure sum and we saw the reasons why in that debut acting green and quirky. I am betting in the hands of Casse this one is ready to fire again and improved. Last thing you want to do with a seven figure investment is get him beat badly second out.
  • Next Best: #5 Tecumseh’s War (5/2) Only the second start for 2021 and the only other start in 2021 faced a tough allowance bunch in Belichick the Breeders’ Stakes winner and English Conquerer a graded stakes place runner. In today’s event the class level is much softer and the pace looks to fit well for this front runner. Best overall figures and should have enough tactical speed to stay a length off any of the other speeds that decide to go early.
  • Consideration: #9 Broadway (12-1) Yet another massive purchase price, this Attfield runner will have to work out a trip from the far post. With the blinkers going on for the first time, should have enough early speed to establish position. As for the light figures in the last three races, there’s a story to be told of trips and wide runs. Bridgmo gets aboard for the first time and is a smart heads up rider.

Race 9: Clm $7.5k 6f (AW)

  • Most Logical: #2 Hitters Park (8/5) Gets an inside draw for once and should setup perfectly to sit behind the front runners and make a big move at the top of the stretch. Nice drop in class and imagine this is a prudent financial move to offload this good runner as we go into the winter season, get the last win, and collect a paycheck.
  • Next Best: #8 Hurricane Dancer (3-1) Might be the best of the speeds in here. Last out just a smidge too long and two back too short. Without much signed on here today, could easily see clear sailing on the front end.

Race 10: Clm 5k N2L 8.5f (AW)

  • Most Logical: #2 If Six Was Nine (3-1) Should get the best of trips, has enough tactical speed to establish early position into that first turn and has enough finish to keep going after the 1/8th pole. Average Beyers higher than the rest of this bunch. Last race was wide the entire way and made the first move.
  • Next Best: #7 Top Prize Girl (6-1) In these N2L events, it’s sometimes advantageous to find the fresh face. This runner went out threw in an absolute clunker but had a few excuses trying to make a move along the rail but getting shut off subtly.  I think this runner gets back on track and runs competitively in this field today.

Race 11: Clm $15k N2L 6.5f (AW)

  • Best Value: #4 Shuddacuddawudda (20-1) Might be the best of speed in here today, gets the inside post draw, blinkers go on for first time, and figures fit with this bunch. Not impossible.
  • Most Logical: #1 No Whammie (6-1) Gets the inside draw and will work out a stalking trip from there. Last out ran quite impressively against a higher class division. Today should be able to take back and let the outside speeds go, making one run late. Best overall figures and the distance fits very well.
  • Next Best: #5 Reign by Rein (10-1) Hard to leave off tickets racing for the second time at this $15k level. If the pace is mild, which it looks to be, I could see this runner grinding late to get up by a nose.
  • Fading : #2 Hidden Identify (4-1) My oh my what happened to this horse. Such promise early in the season, but has thrown in clunkers race after race. I guess that goes to show earning a higher Beyer in a race with lesser competition, no adversity, and setting blue fractions really can inflate figures.
  • Fading: #8 Stencil (5/2) Hard to explain away the race two back but gets back to business last out and breaking the maiden. Figures are light against the rest of this bunch and will be forced to workout a trip, why take favoritism there?

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