Race 3: Ontario Jockey Club Stakes $100k 6f (AW) – I think you have to be against Pink Lloyd here with the merri-go-round paces this horse has seen in this year. I do think the old boy is a step slower this year.
- Best Value: #3 Magical Man (20-1) In last two starts has been shuffled to the back of the pack and tried to make wide runs at merri-go-round paces. With the flat 6f, I hope owner/trainer Gail Hughes will send a bit more aggressively and give this runner chances. There’s back form that shows there’s ability and I don’t think we’ve seen that ability this year due to pace setups and wide runs.
- Most Logical: #2 Pink Lloyd (1/5) Old boy needs no introduction, will try to stalk any pace in the two path and kick clear. Figures of this runner are a bit lighter this year but the back class should hold this runner’s finish together nicely.
Race 7: OC $62k 6f (AW)
- Most Logical: #5 Lenny K (3-1) The pace sets up perfectly for this runner to stalk and make a move similar to the last event against Clayton. Last out ran a winning race but was nipped at the wire by a rail horse who saved all the ground and had a dream ride.
- Next Best: #10 Super Comet (8-1) Oxley, Casse, strong works, ultimate equipment change, and gate bullet drill last out. Hard to not keep this runner onside.
Race 8: Alw 8.5f (AW) –what do we make of those figures coming out of the Oct 17th race. If they’re true to 84 and 85, then this race really narrows down to two runners
- Most Logical: #5 Transient (5/2) Have to trust the figure earned considering the next out runner (November Fog) ran an 80 as well. I think Casse and team have found where this horse wants to thrive on the all-weather north of the boarder. Without any real pace except for some outside speed, this runner should get a nice inside stalking trip saving ground. Last out had to travel wide and was victim to that pretty neutral pace. Good sign for Hernandez to get aboard.
- Next Best: #8 Sweet Serenade (4-1) Again, having to side the pair coming out of the Oct 17th race. Second time facing winners and hopes to get a better trip than the last way: shuffled to back of the back by a subtle check out of the gate. Needs a bit of race luck from way out in the eight post, but not insurmountable.
- One to watch: #6 Driedel (3-1) Will be watching this one and not betting. Last out really struggled to change leads down the lane and figure things out. The figure needs to be higher and the overall visual performance needs to improve. Prefer the top two choices, but curios if this one can figure things out. I expect that price to drift up to 5-1 and our top two to take all the beating in the markets.
Race 9: Mdn 6f (AW)
- Most Logical: #1 Buck Moon (2-1) Hometown stud for Chicago, Rivelli is 31% with positive ROI off these long layoffs. Overall figures are higher and breeding suggests will take to the all weather. Garbage trips in last two starts. Loveberry getting board is interesting, so hopefully he has studied up on the WO surface. However, don’t forget he rides in Chicago as well so he knows how synth plays.
Race 10: Clm $5k 8.5f (AW) sticking with logicals coming off the pace
- Most Logical: #8 Piccadilly Beau (3-1) Should get the perfect stalking trip with some many of the speed and fade types on the inside. Sit 2w and make one run late.
- Next Best: #7 Amberwood (8-1) Another that will get a stalking trip and figures fit.
- Consideration: #2 Rocket Plan (4-1) Figures fit, maybe needs the race luck to work out the trip but will have the stalking cat birds seat if he wants it.
- Consideration #1 Society Joe (12-1) Has one way to go, and that’s go with the speed. Could continue to improve as four year old.