Hey BCBC Players, there’s a chance to qualify in Woodbine’s Saturday contest – get all the details here. There are also a couple of special wagers you need to know about – a global pick five (my thoughts on the international races below as bonus content) AND an all-stakes Pick 5. The great Steven Bonnick also has international/Global Pick Five analysis right here.
Let’s dive in!
R1
Possible pace play for #2 ALZADO stretching out, in light and dropping. Lower profile connections maybe mean a decent price.
#7 RUN MATTEO RUN takes a significant drop and should end up being in a good attacking spot.
3 BEACH FACTOR is a second-time starter (2TS) who could improve, another for underneath
R2
#7 LOIS LEN looks like the only speed – can she run away and hide under Sofia Vives?
#5 HARD TO CAPTURE showed increased early speed last time but still finished well. Sean Boarman taught me long ago that this figure pattern often portends further improvement.
#6 KATHERINE’S GEM should get the right kind of trip to hit the board
R3
Start of the all-stakes Pick 5.
#6 MEILANI has had two inefficient runs sprinting, just going a bit too fast early, hoping that Prat can get her to settle here in her first start going long and she might be able to seize control of proceedings early on.
Tough posts for two others I’ll mention.
#11 ON MY TIME has more speed than she showed last time when she was impeded at the break. Breeding looks good for longer. We’ll get a line on that Catch a Glimpse form here for later. Interesting that Civaci shows up on a stablemate not here.
That makes me want to include #10 EL BARRIO who looked to maybe be figuring things out a little last time and could improve for firmer going.
R4
#3 BELLA CLASSICA might be better on synthetic and should really appreciate the drop in class and the more positive trip that should go along with it.
#5 NYAATA has that sneaky looking bullet work two back and that Churchill race was fast enough early that I could see them sending here in a race without much speed. Under-the-radar outfit has good numbers on the year.
#7 STARSHIP SERENITY is usually there or thereabouts and should be again.
R5
#1 REGAL MOMENT had a tricky trip last time at stakes level and I imagine they’ll just send from the rail. She’s got a chance to prove the best speed.
#6 JUST MAGNIFICENT comes out of that same race where it looked like she was against the flow of the track that day and is another I could see improving.
#5 GOOD AS GONE has form headed back in the right direction and some back races that fit.
R6
Full write-up on the Summer here.
R7
#6 LITERATE was not up for facing the heavy hitters in the Taylor but looks very strong at this G3 level on synth. Should get a great setup for her late run.
#10 CAITLINHERGREATNESS is another dropping from the big race, her speed could play well here especially if she can just behind the pacesetters and attack on the turn like she did in her career highlight race, the ’24 King’s Plate.
#4 WILD PANSY a bit of a wildcard making the NA-debut. I don’t know what to make of the French form but the two shippers that Repole/Attard have bought that came from France have both won winning races on their North American debuts — Hoshiana 2d, 72 fig, and High Handed, winner, 71 fig. Those figs wouldn’t be fast enough but I’m still intrigued enough to include.
R8
Full write-up on the Natalma here.
R9
Full write-up on the Mile here.
R10
2 SIMCOE ran a gigantic race last time but he might have the right circumstances to back that up with another big run as he looks the clear speed once again.
Should the pace be unexpectedly hot, maybe #4 CRUDEN BAY could be the one to benefit? I thought his last was better than it looked, having moved early into a fast pace in the King Edward.
#7 HORSEPOWER might have moved too soon last time, has on-the-board claims.
R11
#1 POSSIBILMENTE could be the best speed for our old pals at Sport of Kings Racing Partners. The work two back looks to be signaling readiness.
#4 PIERRE ran a big race figure wise last time off the layoff and he might just be getting good late in his four-year-old year.
#6 TIZ ROMANTIC made what might have been a premature middle move last time and is a little interesting to me getting back on to the synth.
R12
#3 NIAGARA SKYLINE I have positive notes for on the last two runs. On August 16, closed well to win into blue fractions. The time before he moved too fast into red fractions. Should be able to sit a good trip here just off the pace, depending on how things shake out.
#2 AWESOME BOURBON isn’t just a hunch play – he could also be the best speed and is another I’d love to keep on side.
#5 LAC MACAZA looks fast enough and has some angles, being second-time off the claim for Drexler after an ambitious placement in a stake. He’s third off the bench and could be set for a peak effort.
#10 DAI VERNON showed talent in Kentucky and is an interesting candidate to improve on synthetic given his bloodlines (Good Magic out of a Scat Daddy dam).
International races:
St Leger
2 CARMERS looks the most interesting to me – strong finish to the eye and on the clock in the Voltigeur. Has beaten both the faves here and has beaten both the faves but will be a bigger price.
5 SCANDANAVIA is obvious and the one of the O’Brien trio I like most. Very strong bit of form beating top older stayer Illinois in the Goodwood Cup and he did that without the easiest of trips. One to keep onside for sure.
6 STAY TRUE has O’Brien in his corner and bears some similarities to last year’s winner of this race. There’d be something poetic about a horse from Galileo’s last crop winning this, given his dominance as a sire in this race. Looks logical enough and should pay better in this Global pick than he will on the tote.
1230 Irish Champion
#5 DELACROIX has the best form in the race and loves it around Leopardstown with previous course and distance success. His tactical speed is also an important weapon. He doesn’t have to win, but he’s supposed to win, if that makes sense.
B
You ignore Yahagi-san at your own peril and I liked #3 SHIN EMPEROR’s run in this race last year when it appeared that improved on his previous form despite trouble. I think you can ignore the run in the Sheema Classic in Dubai when he appeared to just go too fast and gas out, and obviously there was an issue as he hasn’t been seen since.
#1 ANMAAT has won at the top levels and comes here fresh off two G1 placings that would have him go close. Would love to include as a backup at least.
