Monmouth Park Full Card Analysis – Sunday, 7/5/26 – By Eric Solomon

Heat caused the first two days of racing this week to be cancelled at Monmouth Park, but today’s card should be safe. The featured stakes race is the Monmouth County Stakes for three year old fillies sprinting on the turf. In addition, New Jersey bred two year olds will get the first chance of the year to compete against in state bred maiden company in the 2nd and 4th races today. First post this afternoon is 12:50 PM (EDT).

I’ll be covering the Monmouth Park meet for the 6th consecutive year on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

The first of four turf races on the card is an optional $40K claiming/N2X allowance race for three year olds and up going 1 1/16 miles. The rails will be set at 24 feet this afternoon. This is an interesting group of six with two runners trying the turf for the first time, one getting back on the turf for the first time in 13 starts, and three runners that have stakes experience on the turf. Neither Atlast (#3) or Versus (#5) have much tactical speed, so this feels like a great spot for the seven year old, New Jersey bred gelding, One Time Willard (#6) to rebound. He struggled in the Cliff Hanger Stakes in his last start where he was a big longshot. However, he has shown the ability to rebound from dull efforts in the past. He was sharp in open company here last summer and he’s proven that he can be comfortable close to the front. He should get first run on both the other short prices, and that may be enough on this course. I am a little curious as to why he didn’t enter in the Irish War Cry Handicap yesterday. He just missed in that race last year and on paper, he’d be a perfect fit in the only two turn handicap race for New Jersey breds of the year. Kelly Breen did enter another horse in that race for a different owner, so why he didn’t show up there is a fair question to ask. Even though the other two main threats in this race are nice horses, I do think this is an easier spot, which may have been the goal. Atlast is the one I want to use as the backup here. He’s a horse that was a Group 3 winner in France in 2024, which was also the last time he won a race. He’s making his second start off the layoff today after coming back with a solid 4th place finish against a tougher group at this condition at Delaware Park last month. He might want a little longer than this distance, but his lone start here was a solid effort in stakes company last season. Graham Motion doesn’t send a lot of horses here, but he’s 2-2 with the pair that did make the trip to the Jersey Shore. 

Race 2:

Six New Jersey bred two year old fillies will dash five furlongs on the main track in this maiden special weight contest. The boys will get their chance at this condition in the 4th race today. Both of these races have a similar theme as Eddie Owens and Holly Crest Farm will send out an experienced runner (sired by Sea Wizard) as the morning line favorites while facing a lot of first time starters. While I typically like experienced runners in these kind of races, Midnight Voodoo (#3) was not especially fast in her debut. The winner of that race, Madeline Swann was last in the Schuylerville Stakes on Friday at Saratoga, and while that was a tough group, she didn’t run a step, easing up and finishing over 30 lengths behind the winner. I think She’s a Twelve (#4) is much more playable in this race as the second choice. There’s not many New Jersey breds sired by Yaupon, who is winning with 21% of his debuting two year olds in dirt sprint races so far. The dam has foaled two other runners which were New York breds. While the first horse didn’t show much in her two starts, the other foal was third on debut in the fall and a winner in New York bred maiden special weight company at Saratoga last month. The AM works have been solid for Kelly Breen, who has struggled with his firsters of late. However, he’s won with 15% of his debut runners in a five year sample. He’s debuted five New Jersey breds in state bred races over the last five years and four of them ran strong races, with two of them getting their pictures taken. This is a classy homebred who looks the part in this race. La Cayetana (#6) is a full sister to La Resolana, who has three wins in five starts, including two straight scores at this meet. She’s been working steadily since May and while I think she’ll be better in her next start, she’s going to be the one that I’ll back up with here. 

Race 3:

We haven’t had many cards with more than eight races at this meet, but with the nine race card this afternoon, we’ll get an extra Pick-5 wager to sink our teeth into and that starts here. Fillies and mares will sprint six furlongs in this $5K starter allowance contest. There’s not a runner that I would feel confident about taking ahead of Charlie’s Beauty (#4) here. She’s had to deal with Unsolved Mystery in her last two starts, so I’m sure that her connections are glad to see that mare is sitting this one out. She has two wins and two second place finishes in the six starts since Juan Avila claimed her at Tampa. She’s a four year filly that is facing a lot of runners that are on the back nine of their careers. She’s going to be less than even money in this race, so there’s not going to be much value, but unless she beats herself, it’s hard to envision one of these six runners getting to her. Miss Neo (#7) is the backup for me in this spot. She was a 22-1 shocker in a beaten $5K claimer here last weekend. Her 2025 campaign was a disaster, but she did have some credible efforts back in 2024 on this course. All three of her wins have come on this oval and while she’ll need to improve from her last try, she’s likely going to be overlooked again in this one. 

Race 4:

Nine New Jersey bred colts and gelding will dash five furlongs in this maiden allowance contest. The one to beat is clearly Sea Devil (#1). He’s coming out of one of the faster two year old races of the meet, finishing a game second to City Streaker. That effort definitely is good enough to win a lot of baby races here, but I do worry about the rail draw in a larger field. Sea Wizard has been a very good state bred sire and Eddie Owens and Holly Crest Farm have had a lot of recent success with these horses. He’s going to be on my tickets, but I’m going for a price in this race. Time to Groove (#8) debuts for Cathal Lynch and Hope Jones this afternoon. Julio Hernandez is making the trip to be here to ride this half brother to Cairo Surprise. That runner is 4-8 in his career with 4 second place finishes in his four losses,(One of those races he was disqualified from finishing first). That one finished a game second on his debut race and most recently he was seen dominating the John J. Reilly Handicap here last month. Dialed In gets 16% winners from his two year old babies debuting in dirt sprint races over the last five years. On deeper tickets, I’ll include Itsy Bitsy Boss (#5). She’s making her first start for Sergio Rabadan this afternoon after a few sharp three furlong drills. Jose Ferrer has won a lot of races at Monmouth and he’s in town to ride this weekend, possibly testing the waters with Paco Lopez and Samuel Marin riding elsewhere right now. Mind Control has one winner from five starters thus far and that winner just came back to run third in the Schuylerville Stakes at the Spa on Friday. This is the first foal to race from an Into Mischief mare who had two wins in her career, including one on this oval. 

Race 5:

We’ll move back to the turf for this optional $40K claiming/$25K starter allowance race for fillies and mares going 1 1/16 miles. The two short prices in this race, Stillthinkingofyou (#5) and Seat At the Table (#6) were both last seen racing at Aqueduct in a $50K claiming race. Stillthinkingofyou set a pokey pace in that five horse field, but Seat At the Table stalked that slow pace and ran her down in the late stages, winning by over a length. Jose Lezcano had inside position from the rail aboard Stillthinkingofyou and he tried to dictate the terms in a paceless race to avoid letting Ricardo Santana do the same thing. I think Stillthinkingofyou is more comfortable having a target to chase and she should get that with Bello Bello Banker (#1) moving up in class for this race. I’ll try Jose Ferrer aboard this filly to narrowly defeat Seat At the Table and Luis Rivera Jr. That mare always shows up, so I can’t leave her off my tickets. She has three off the board finishes in her last nine starts. One of those races came in a stakes race, another came at 11 furlongs, and the third came in a Claiming Crown race at Churchill where she had to navigate post 12. She didn’t run poorly in any of those races though, so there’s no reason to doubt whether or not she’s going to fire. Bello Bello Banker needs to get faster to win this race, however there are some things to think about here, possibly trying her underneath and as a deeper saver. She is moving up in class after two straight wins over this turf course. She drew the rail in both of those races and set the tempo both times. She’s never had to deal with horses like the top two bearing down on her, but she is a three year old filly that is starting to figure some things out. If her odds float up from her 10-1 morning line to the 20-1 territory, I’d consider making a small win bet on her in this spot. I do think she’s a filly that could add some value underneath in this race, assuming that she’ll improve after pairing her last two Beyer Figures.

Race 6:

The Late Pick-4 begins with a maiden special weight race for fillies and mares sprinting six furlongs. Three well-meant first time starters are facing three runners with five or six races under their belts. The runners with experience have not shown a ton, especially Life Raft (#3) and Imagine Erin (#6). It’s hard for me to get behind Mermaid Magic (#4), who debuts for Jose Sanchez. Authentic is not a great debut sire in dirt sprint races and Sanchez’s horses tend to need a few races before they’re at their best. The dam’s other runners to compete were not competitive at first asking, but they tended to improve as time went on. Haunting Echoes (#5) is the Parx shipper with six races on her resume. She’s finished in the money in five of those starts, but has yet to seal the deal. She’s probably sitting on a race that’s a little better than her last, and in this compact field, we know exactly who she is. If the other two firsters don’t show up, I suspect she’ll graduate. However, there’s a lot of promise with both Ravenwood Hill (#1) and Miss Taro (#2). Miss Taro is a half to Nyquist, who won his first eight starts, including the Kentucky Derby and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (five total Grade 1 wins). The dam has not produced a runner that has competed on the track in about five years, and it’s possible that this $1,200,000 daughter of Curlin could be more valuable in the breeding shed than on the track. However, AMO Racing USA likes to run their horses and while this one has been a bit late to develop, she has been working well for a barn that does well with first time starters. These connections have already scored with another million dollar debut runner at this meet (Regents Park). Ravenwood Hill debuts for Kelly Breen, who is trying to win with his first older debut runner in open company since 2022. He did send out a nice filly to score on debut last week in a state bred maiden race here, and she’s one of three nice looking first time starters on this card for Breen. Gun Runner scores with 19% of his debut runners in dirt sprint races. The dam’s only other foal to race is 0-7, never hitting the board in seven maiden allowance races. The works are solid as this one was made the narrow morning line favorite. 

Race 7, The $100K Monmouth County Stakes:

The $3 Late Pick-3 begins with this stakes contest for three year old fillies going 5 ½ furlongs on the turf. These races are always a little tricky to handicap in advance because you have Spinelli (#1) cross-entered in an allowance race at Colonial on 7/10 and Victory Music (#8), a filly based in Kentucky, cross-entered in the Pea Patch at Ellis this afternoon. In addition, Mike Dini does not have a rider named on Dancingwithdestiny (#6), so it’s hard to guess the intentions there. Spinelli is the morning line favorite, but I’d be against her if she shows up here. Her two wins have been on the synthetic at Gulfstream and those efforts are much better than her turf tries. Both Carolyncaroline (#2) and Niche (#5) appear to more effective on the dirt, which leaves both Tap Into Grace (#3) and Gerrards Cross (#4) as major players in this race. They hit the wire together to finish third and second, respectively, in the Stormy Blues Stakes at Laurel. Gerrards Cross is a front runner who scored at 13-1 in the Colleen Stakes on this course last summer when going five furlongs. Her two turf races are her best efforts. Early speed is the name of her game and it remains to be seen how much pace pressure she’s going to be under. Spinelli, Niche, Dancingwithdestiny, and Victory Music all have early speed and if all four are in here, the table is set for the deeper closer, Tap Into Grace. Each defection from that list is certainly beneficial to Gerrards Cross. At the end of the day, I’m a little concerned about Gerrards Cross holding on at the distance and I’m a little concerned about Tap Into Grace getting up in time as she has been in last place at the first call in both of her turf sprints. While closers have been a little more successful at this meet at this distance in past seasons, it’s still not an easy way to win on this course. Both fillies are A line runners, but I’m going to try Echo Juliet (#7) on top in this race. Her lone try in a turf sprint was a solid second place effort at the Fair Grounds over the winter. Those turf sprint races this winter at the Fair Grounds were generally pretty sharp. The winner of that race has gone on to finish in the money in three straight dirt races. The third place finisher, Stepping Stones, is a little more interesting. She came back in an allowance race at Keeneland against older fillies and mares and finished third against a group that I feel is stronger than this field. Her two starts since then have been off the board finishes, but neither of those efforts were in turf sprints. Echo Juliet has two dirt starts since that turf sprint. She was second to a very nice Louisiana bred in a stakes race at Evangeline. She was a bit dull in an allowance race at Delaware in her last start where she faced only three rivals. The runner up came back to win in her last start, so there was some quality there. I like her getting back on the turf and I think she’s the kind of horse that lands in between Tap Into Grace and Gerrards Cross at the first call. I may consider making adjustments when scratches come out, but I think she’s an interesting price play in this race.

Race 8:

Fillies and mares will sprint six furlongs in this beaten $7,500-$6,500 claiming race. Toasttothestones (#8) is a two-time winner while the other seven runners qualified under the N2L condition. Cassie’s Vault (#7) looks like a horse that may have found her friends at this level. She’s a New Jersey bred filly for Chuck Spina that ran well to be third at this level in her last start. She stalked the pace and came with a bold three wide bid while facing a short priced favorite with Paco Lopez aboard. What makes Paco so good is that when this filly engaged, he allowed her to get about a length in front while he slid into the rail spot vacated by Toasttothestones. He asked his filly for her best run after saving the ground, whereas Cassie’s Vault came a bit wide. She finished third that day, but she showed that she can run with this level and she has proven in the past that she has better races to run. I like the rider switch to the veteran, Jose Ferrer, for this race. Charming Jennie (#2) is also worth considering in this spot. She is trained by Wayne Potts, who claimed and has trained Elsie’s Smile (the winner of the last race with Cassie’s Vault) to two wins thus far. This filly was right there with those runners in May when she finished third, beaten only a length after getting roughed up at the break. She moved up in class to try a two turn race in the slop, which was taken off the turf. She wanted no part of that track and distance that day. She’s back at a better level and she’s been freshened up a bit for this race. I’m expecting a better effort here. On deeper tickets, Maxisure (#3) is taking a deep drop after some dull efforts against much better fields. She was claimed after winning on debut in a soft $20K maiden claiming race in New York earlier in the year. While taking this kind of loss is not ideal, this is where she likely belongs.

Race 9:

We’ll close out the weekend with a $16K-$14K N3L claiming race going 1 1/16 miles over the turf course. Wild Jaime (#4) is a different horse on the turf, so getting back on the lawn will be a welcome change. He’s at his best while he’s on the lead, and while Prince of Troy (#2) has a similar style and inside position, he doesn’t always get to the front and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Jose Ferrer be more aggressive and try to take initiative with this one here. He’s done his best work on this course, winning both of his races here. I think he gets his picture taken in the nightcap. Fully Authorized (#1) is cross-entered in a much tougher spot at Colonial tomorrow where he’s also going to have to deal with an outside draw. That card was drawn before this one, so I’m thinking that entering in this spot was a reaction to that race. He’s making his first start in 11 months for a barn that isn’t great off the layoff. He’d be competing at the lowest level of competition yet though. I’ll also use That Sun of a Gun (#3) as a backup here. He often gets close but doesn’t win a ton, as is the case with a lot of these runners. Jose Gomez will get a crack at riding this one for the first time today. 

Meet Statistics: Top Pick Winners 39/145 (26.9%), $216.30 ($1.49 ROI)

Turf Data for Each Rail Setting

I kept data from every turf race at the 2024 and the 2025 meeting to see if there were any trends on the turf at any of the various rail positions. I tried to quantify the data below and in 2024, it appears that the farther the rails go out, the more fair the track plays. Lead indicates that a horse won the race in wire to wire fashion. Stalk indicates that they were within five lengths of the leader at the first call in the race. For the purposes of this data set, a closer is a horse that rallied from five lengths or more behind the leader at any point of call in the race. The closer stats are listed next to the rail settings. I’ll continue to track this data for 2026 to see if this trend continues. 

0 Feet (2026)

12 Feet (2026)

24 Feet (2026)

36 Feet