Week number two of the summer meet at Colonial concludes on a Monday due to the rescheduling of this card from Friday due to scorching temperatures. Let’s look to close the week on a high.
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Selections
- Race 1: 2-5-3-4
- Race 2: 1-2-6-5
- Race 3: 7-1-6-3
- Race 4: 6-4-1-2
- Race 5: 5-2-6-4
- Race 6: 5-4-8-1
- Race 7: 6-7-2-5
- Race 8: 4-10-1-9
Colonial Downs Race 2: Riva Red (#1) at 5-2 or higher
It’s possible one of the first-time starters like Stellina (#2) or Caffeine Fix (#6) are runners as the former goes out for Michael Trombetta off a bullet work as this barn has been improving their stats with debut runners the last few seasons. The latter has been training forwardly down at Keeneland and this owner/trainer combo has already notched a win at the meet. However, I’m going to give Riva Red (#1) a try as she is a second-time starter for Hamilton Smith. I thought she took a notable amount of money on debut to go off 6-1, but lost all chance at the break. I’m willing to portend that she’ll take a step forward off that experience while some of her main rivals are still figuring things out in the afternoon.
Colonial Downs Race 4: Castagna (#6) at 8-1 or higher
Quite an eclectic group going forward in this $25k claimer. Mrs. Katz (#1) is likely to be a heavy favorite winning a race at this distance three-back at a tougher level than this. However she hasn’t shown much punch in her last two starts, but maybe this drop in class is all she needs. No disputing that Stay In Tune (#4) is in the best form of her career since switching to the grass and winning her first two turf starts. I’m just worried about this being a tougher group and hopping on her bandwagon too late. My top pick is a goofy longshot with Castagna (#6) getting my seal of approval. While she’s been racing exclusively on dirt the last handful of starts, those have been comparable fields to what she meets today. She actually has some hidden turf form from the middle of last year where she was able to wire a field at this distance. That’s exactly the type of trip I think she needs and will get as the pace figures I look at has her clear as could be early on and I’m hoping this low profile trainer ensures a fair price.
Colonial Downs Race 6: Come to Mama (#5) at 6-1 or higher
It’s been cool seeing Colonial expand it’s use of distances on turf sprints to include the 6f trip. Very few tracks have the ability to run these elongated turf sprints, so it’s good to see them utilizing the circumference. There are two main players in this race that will take the bulk of the wagering. Motown Diva (#8) is turning back in distance off two route wins at a similar level Gulfstream, but proved adept at sprinting finishing second in her only one-turn start. Meanwhile, Sally’s Gold (#4) specializes in turf sprints having posted her most recent win over this course last year. I prefer her to Motown Diva given the fact she could be loose on the lead, but that extra half-furlong is enough for me not to want to stomach a short price. I landed on Come to Mama (#5) as the top pick. I was impressed enough with her win two back against a comparable field and think all three of her most recent turf starts have things to like. She’s tactical enough to not get outrun early like those turning back from routes, but has proven to be able to pass horses in the lane.
#TheCheatSheet
2025 Summer Meet Statistics
All
Top Picks: 208-57-45-33 (27%, $1.88); Featured Horses: 65-11-13-17 (17%, $1.86)
Fair Odds Met
Top Picks: 127-27-28-19 (19%, $2.01); Featured Horses: 51-9-10-12 (18%, $2.12)
Grid
Percent of Races Won By: A’s: 46%; B’s: 33%; C’s: 18%; X’s: 3%
