Monmouth Park Full Card Analysis – Saturday, 7/4/26 – By Eric Solomon

The 4th of July card at Monmouth offers eight races, highlighted by the Irish War Cry Handicap for New Jersey breds going one mile on the turf. Extreme heat caused the Friday card to be cancelled, and while today’s forecast isn’t a whole lot better, relief should be coming for the second half of the weekend. First post this afternoon is 12:50 PM (EDT).

I’ll be covering the Monmouth Park meet for the 6th consecutive year on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

Fillies and mares will go 1 1/16 miles over the turf course in the opener. The rails for the four races carded for the turf will be set at 12 feet today. All six runners entered in this beaten $16K-$14K claimer qualified under the N2L condition. Four of these six ladies met in the opener two weeks ago on a day where there wasn’t a lot of pace projected. Jose Gomez took the initiative and hustled Only You (#2) away from the outside stall. She took a clear lead going into the first turn and settled down nicely while setting the pace for the first time in her career. She was nailed late on the wire, losing by less than a length. Both El Ma’any (#3) and Radar Loop (#4) were shorter prices that day and neither had trips that were objectionable. They were gaining, but never looked like winners in that race. With the addition of both Ronda World (#5) and Sushi (#6) to this field, there could be a little more pace signed on. However, while there could be token pressure applied, I think Only You has the edge in this spot. She has the shortest run to the lead and she was quick enough to scamper away early last time. I think the last thing that Jose Gomez wants is to let Pedro Cotto Jr. and Ronda World to dictate the terms here. She did that last out in a maiden field and took it to that group early while hanging on late to score at 33-1. I also think that while Sushi could be a bit keen while making her first start since January, I don’t think Cristian Rojas is going to want to engage in a duel with a stablemate Perhaps Only You was experiencing a bit of heavy legs in the late stages after making her first start in about 10 weeks last time out. I think she’ll be more fit for this race today. Mike Dini trains both El Ma’any and Radar Loop, and of that duo, I think I prefer El Ma’any. She has taken a decent step forward in her two local starts. She went off as the favorite last time out, which was a bit surprising. She made a belated bid down the outside after being covered up in 5th for the better part of that race. Francisco Martinez gave her a sharp ride two back and he gets back aboard today. 

Race 2:

Only five are entered in this $25K-$20K maiden claiming race going 5 ½ furlongs on the main track. Both Jersey’s the Boss (#3) and Hillsborough Eight (#5) were bred in New Jersey and thus they are eligible to run without a claiming in this race. All signs point to Royal Merit (#4) here. He just missed with better two starts back, where he outfinished Jersey’s the Boss. Both runners regressed in their next starts, however, both were in different circumstances. Jersey’s the Boss faded in a salty state bred maiden race six days ago while Royal Merit tried two turns on the turf in his last try. I think Royal Merit gets the right trip in behind the front-runners  in a spot where I can’t trust any of them to hold on. Don’t sleep on the longshot,  World Wide Web (#1) in this race. While it’s hard to ignore that he’s 0-13, he did show something for the first time in a long time last time out at Parx when facing $15K-$10K maiden claimers. I do like that he took that jump while making his second start for Phil Aristone. He makes the trip across state lines to Monmouth, which is not something that Aristone does often, where he’s joining a compact field. I do wonder if he has figured out something with this Knicks Go gelding. 

Race 3:

Fillies and mares will sprint 5 ½ furlongs on the turf in this $16K-$14K N3L claiming race. While both Bonita Diamond (#4) and Speightfulelection (#6)have shown speed in the past, neither are in very good form at the moment, which leads me to believe that Taprixie (#2) is going to have an edge while setting the pace in this race. She is coming out of a tougher race with open $12,500-$10,500 claimers here six days ago. She was no match for Clay Soldier, who is a much better runner. She was under pressure from the start in that race and I’m not sure that is going to be the case in this race. While she has been known to get leg weary late, she has done some of her best work on this course. The hot and dry weather should have the course a little firmer than it was last week as well, which may also help her cause. Gold Stamp (#5) is the logical alternative to the top pick. She did most of her work on the dirt at Tampa over the winter, but I think this 5 ½ furlong distance on the turf is where she is going to be best. She broke her maiden on a course that was a little softer here last summer at this distance. She came back and ran well at Colonial with $30K N2L claimers, but she struggled at a similar level in New York. There weren’t a ton of options for her class level on the turf over the winter in Florida, so she kept fit in lower level dirt races, scoring in an $8K N2L claiming race there. Getting back on the turf was a welcome change for her last out as she closed well to be second in a $20K-$18K N3L claiming race. This feels like the right level for her at the moment and while she might have to track down a loose leader, I think she’ll get a trip that gives her every chance to do so.

Race 4:

A half dozen runners will go six furlongs in this $10K  maiden claimer that kicks off the Late Pick-5. There is some rough form here and four of the six runners are cutting back in distance from two turn races. I didn’t love that Law of Uncertainty (#6) debuted in a two turn race. He showed some decent speed before fading badly in a tougher field for $12,500-$10,500 maiden claiming condition. He gets class relief and cuts back to one turn where he’s facing a much softer group. He’ll need to improve, but with this group, I feel he’s worth taking a shot with. The same could be said for the first time starter, Why Me Lord (#1). He’s biggest asset is that there’s absolutely no form to go off of. There was a bullet work two weeks ago and when looking at his pedigree, this distance will probably what suits him best. I’ll also use the professional maiden, They Call Me Sue (#2). He’s dropping in class to the lowest level to date. He’s a classic speed and fade type that has had nine chances to get the job done. He struggled against much tougher here last month, but he was more competitive with lower level maiden claimers at Tampa. Even though All the Luck (#3) is the morning line favorite, I think this one goes off as the post time favorite because at the very least, I think he has speed to put him into the race, where All the Luck has proven time and time again that he doesn’t. 

Race 5:

Nine, three and four year old fillies are set to 1 1/16 miles over the turf course in this $25K-$20K maiden claiming race. This feels like a great spot Lucky Louisa (#1). She is making her third career start this afternoon and she’s making her second attempt in a two turn grass race. Tyler Gaffalione rode her last out in a $40K-$30K maiden claiming race here on Haskell Preview Day three weeks ago. She made the lead, but had to work hard every step of the way. She faded to be 4th that day, beaten only 2 lengths. She should be more fit for this race and she’s drawn the rail in a race where there is really no other speed signed on. Her main competition are deeper closers, so it’s hard to see them getting the pace scenario that they’d need to be successful here. Assuming she backs up her last performance, I think she’s going to be very tough in this race. Romelia (#9) is the backup for me in this race. She is cross-entered in a maiden special weight contest at Penn National on the 7th. That race was drawn a day after this race was draw, so entering there could have been a response to drawing the outside post for her first try on the turf. I do think she can handle the lawn and I like the progression of trying this race after two dirt sprints. If she lands here, I do think she’s a candidate to get a nice stalking trip, assuming she can avoid losing too much ground in the early stages. 

Race 6:

Fillies and mares will go 1 mile and 70 yards on the dirt in this beaten $7,500-$6,500 claiming race. All six runners qualified for this contest under the N2L condition and many of them have been lingering at this level for a while. I think it’s fair to say that First Hathor (#5) wants nothing to do with the turf. She never picked up her feet in two tries on the lawn, including her last start, which was her local debut. She drops in class after that effort and get back on the dirt. She was sharp two back at Tampa when breaking her maiden and getting an 11 pound weight break over the favorite with an apprentice rider may be enough to tip the scales in her favor. Bee N Dee (#6) is the favorite and she figures to be tough in this race. She faltered late at 3-5 with Paco Lopez in the saddle in her last start. Luis Rivera Jr. will get another crack at things with her as she tries again at this level. She’ll be forwardly placed, which certainly helps her cause. She has two losses at this meet in races where she’s been a sub even money favorite, so even though there isn’t much on paper here, it’s hard to get too invested at a short number with her. 

Race 7, The $75K Irish War Cry Handicap:

The race of the day is a stakes race for New Jersey breds going one mile over the turf course. There is a lot of early speed signed on for this race, but there are no true closers that realistically could contend at this level. Gold Trust (#1) and There Are No Words (#3) met in this race last year when He’spuregold won his 5th consecutive trophy in this race. Gold Trust is more of a sprinter and There Are No Words has done his best work at two turns. Gold Trust broke directly inside of There Are No Words last year in this race and bumped him from the start, allowing him to set a modest pace. That’s significant because There Are No Words is typically a “need the lead” type of horse. Three of his four wins have come in races where he led every step of the way. While Gold Trust has inside position again, I think his best chance to score is to try to sit a pocket trip just in behind the leaders. Midnight Story (#5) and Frankie G (#8) are both likely to try to make the lead and I think Frankie G is less likely to back off. That should ensure an honest pace, which could help a horse that can handle stalking the pace. This gelding was very sharp at the end of the season last year and I think he’s going to appreciate the class relief today. He’s coming out of some very salty turf sprints at Laurel and Saratoga where he wasn’t involved. I’m expecting a much sharper effort today. There Are No Words is too classy not to have covered, but it;s hard to invest in a favorite that has finished second or third 4.5 times more than he’s won. While I think he’ll appreciate the absence of He’spuregold, he often seems to find a way to come up a bit short, especially in stakes races. J J Zo Zo (#6) is a longshot that I’m interested in this race. This will be his first ever try at two turns. His lone start at one mile on the dirt came in the Champagne Stakes against Chancer McPatrick in 2024, so I think it’s fair to not worry about that effort. He ran well to be second to Gold Trust in the Joey P, Handicap here at the end of the season last year. He lost all chance at the break in the John J. Reilly Handicap when stumbling out of the gate in his first start of the year. This is a new test for him, but if he can get the distance, I think he’s one that could be finding some energy late. 

Race 8:

Four of the six runners entered in this $10K-$9K claiming race ran last week which makes me wonder what kind of effect that could have on a horse on such a hot day. I landed on Cupid’s Dude (#6) who is dropping in class for this race after being claimed by Michael Simone three starts ago. Simone’s runners have been sharp at this meet and this one was in very good form prior to being claimed. He was wide while closer to a slow pace against a better field in starter allowance company at Delaware two starts ago. He struggled in his last try at Penn National when catching a course that was labeled good and sealed. He’s a seven year old gelding that has won 12 times in his career and three of those wins have come here. This feels like a good spot for him to rebound. Surprise Package (#5) has discovered that his tactical speed that he employed on the turf earlier in his career is equally as useful on the dirt. He’s been sharp in his last three starts, including a third place finish in a starter handicap race in the slop in his last try. He has three wins in his last seven starts and I think he could be right in the mix again. Denying (#4) was a winner here last weekend in starter allowance company and he’s been in very good form of late. While it’s fair to point out that both Brave Bear (#2) and Surprise Package beat him two and three starts back, he has been very sharp since the Avila claim. 

Meet Statistics: Top Pick Winners 39/145 (26.9%), $216.30 ($1.49 ROI)

Turf Data for Each Rail Setting

I kept data from every turf race at the 2024 and the 2025 meeting to see if there were any trends on the turf at any of the various rail positions. I tried to quantify the data below and in 2024, it appears that the farther the rails go out, the more fair the track plays. Lead indicates that a horse won the race in wire to wire fashion. Stalk indicates that they were within five lengths of the leader at the first call in the race. For the purposes of this data set, a closer is a horse that rallied from five lengths or more behind the leader at any point of call in the race. The closer stats are listed next to the rail settings. I’ll continue to track this data for 2026 to see if this trend continues. 

0 Feet (2026)

12 Feet (2026)

24 Feet (2026)

36 Feet