Things are heating up in more ways than one. After running two races on Wednesday’s card, the remaining races were cancelled due to the extreme heat set to affect the Northeast. And after I had tipped the winner of the first and had the exacta reversed on the second, too. I debated on whether or not to even write one, with Presque Isle and a few other tracks (looking at you, Saratoga) playing chicken with the heat advisory. I decided I’d take a swing at it, in the event the card does go for part or all of the way. Special post times the next two days, so lets kick things off.
RACE 1 – 6 furlongs, Allowance Post Time: 12:30
Getting things started with a light group at half past noon. I think Boogie Woogie (#5) is the front-end type that sticks around. While I don’t like Gaddiel Martinez hopping off, Walber Alencar has been picking up his share of wins lately, and this horse has never run out of the money going 6 furlongs. The contentious pace scenario on paper makes me look towards Shez Untappable (#2), jockeyed by Martinez and a horse coming off a layoff for the Russel Randall barn. Randall is 18% bringing horses back off a long layoff, and this horse proved herself against a common foe last time out, as well as showcasing the ever-important ability to pass horses late.
Race 1 selections: 5-2
RACE 2 – 1 mile 70 yards, Claiming $12,500 Post Time: 12:57
If the Beyer Speed Figures are to be believed, Gideon (#5) should have no trouble with this class drop. He turned the highest last-out Beyer of the field, and has a higher ceiling then the majority of his compatriots. I’m against the favorite Thirteen G’s (#3) despite the fact that Linda Rice is very good at finding spots for her runners. I think it’s possible she flexes some class on the synth, but won’t be good enough to win in his first time at Presque Isle. Rachael’s Wagon (#2) slots into third with the most consistent speed figures, as the prices in this race don’t particularly excite me.
Race 2 selections: 5-3-2
RACE 3 – 1 1/16 miles, Claiming $8,500 Post Time: 1:24
Very tough race to sift through, given four horses coming off either winning or second-place efforts. I’ll trust Van (#4) to get it done with his high percentage team-up of jockey Antonio Gallardo and trainer Ron Potts, Jr. The 8-year-old gelding has run two winning efforts since the layoff and should find more ground to be to his liking. Ramesses (#3) will present a tough challenge, rising classes after consecutive winning runs. Edwin Gonzales is another jockey riding well right now, and trainer Matthew Kintz is 33% with a great ROI in getting his horses to run back winning efforts. For third, I’ll slot in Neoking (#2), who was bested by a neck last time out. I think he’ll find that the #4 and #3 are ready to run big, but his class and recent results make him a decent bet should he drift off the 3-1 morning line.
Race 3 selections: 4-3-2
RACE 4 – 6 furlongs, Claiming $6,250 Post Time: 1:51
Rock Tune (#2) was a well-beaten second by over 3 lengths by a horse I liked on yesterday’s card, Lucy Playa. The last time this horse went from a route to a sprint, she broke her maiden and ran a career-high speed figure. The only concern with this pick is how ice-cold the Michael Rogers barn has been lately. For second, I’ll look for Bucchini (#3) to run well. She’s turned her fastest speed figures in her third start from layoff, so I’ll bank on that trend continuing. I expect Kathlyns Phalanx (#6) to run well for similar reasons. She hasn’t looked her sharpest in a while, but I just need her to be sharper than the rest of the field to get third.
Race 4 selections: 2-3-6
RACE 5 – 1 mile, Allowance Post Time: 2:18
I think that Jes See Me (#1) is a deserving favorite after winning 4 in a row, but I’m going to try and beat him with Mackenzie’s Novva (#3). The 7-year-old was only beaten a half-length last time out, and offers consistent numbers that, should Jes See Me falter, allow #3 to pick up the win. I’m not so foolish as to say the #1 can’t still compete, and I’d be scared to leave her off any tickets. Her winning streak speaks for itself, so she’ll slide into second for me. A horse I’m interested in based on the workouts is Standpoint (#5). His last two workouts were 47.3 second and 46.4 seconds in June and May, respectively. He also was beaten 12 lengths last out by a freak effort from a horse called Brilliant Journey. I suspect he’ll keep it a bit closer this time around.
Race 5 selections: 1-3-5
RACE 6 – 6 ½ furlongs, Allowance Optional Claiming $40,000 Post Time: 2:45
Another very tough six-horse race here. As much as I’d like to, I don’t feel I can play away from Live Stream (#2) here. A 70 and a 72 Beyer in his last two starts, plus the drop in from stakes company, makes me think this horse can outclass this field. The high-percentage strike rates of jockey Antonio Gallardo and trainer Scooter Davis make Certain (#5) a certain inclusion in any box or multirace wager, though he may lack the ceiling that makes Live Stream the more attractive option. The longshots don’t interest me, so Heavy Pour (#1) makes for an easy show placement based on his high speed figs and only losing by a half-length in his last start.
Race 6 selections:2-5-1
RACE 7 – 1 mile 70 yards, Starter Optional Claiming $25,000 Post Time 3:12
This feels like the Stephen Foster last week: a small field of big runners which makes for some good speculative opportunities. Calvin’s Ride (#4) must be wondering what more he has to do to prove himself after besting four of his fellow starters in his last race. He’s also turned two 35 second works over 3 furlongs. That signals to me that he’s still in good form (I hope). I mentioned Brilliant Journey (#3) earlier, and he shows up here in this race. The Scooter Davis trainee is 7-for-8 and Israel Rodriguez gets back on board after he guided this horse to the win last time out, so I wouldn’t fault anyone for reversing my picks here. Code Name (#7) has questions of class, after the horse he beat last out, Starship Empire, was beaten handily in his next start. However, in three starts over the tapeta this horse has run in the money each time, and I don’t foresee that changing now.
Race 7 selections: 4-3-7
RACE 8 – 6 ½ furlongs, Claiming $5,000 Post Time: 3:39
We end with, as usual, a larger field set to ruin multirace wagers in their final moments. I have no interest in 3-1 Sydney Street (#2) because he’s done no running in his two starts back from the layoff, and is too much to ask for at that short a price. Goodie Goomer (#7) brings in relative consistency and speed figures that outclass the field. Partner Tours (#8) had a tough third place to Tiz Big Money, who won his second race in a row that time out. If he can run back to his last race, he should be dangerous. My only real basis for picking Yadi (#9) for third is based on her 1 minute workout over 5 furlongs, a solid time turned in right before he makes his first start since October.
Race 8 selections: 7-8-9
Stay cool everyone, because everything is getting hotter both on and off the track. See you back here tomorrow for the second and last day of the special July 4th cards.
