Bookending the card with wins on Monday sweetened some of the near-misses I had, especially with Missionattheglen, a horse I stared at for a long time before deciding to slot into the show spot. After a Monday traveling (and losing some money at Finger Lakes Racetrack) I’m ready to knock out this Wednesday card. Let’s get rolling.
All times EDT
RACE 1 – 1 mile 70 yards, Maiden Claiming $7,500 Post Time: 3:30 p.m
If the Beyer Speed Figures are to be believed, Gun Policy (#4) should be quick enough to break his maiden despite getting crushed by over 6 lengths last time out. I was disappointed with Tinseltown (#2) in his last race, and I think he’ll be outclassed by the #4 dropping to this level. However, I still like him well enough for second after two good efforts in his last two races. It might take a career best effort, but I think Wetlands Willy (#1) sticks around for third place. He finished there in his only career start at this distance, and I don’t trust the other runners to hang around.
Race 1 selections:4-2-1
RACE 2 – 1 mile 70 yards, Claiming $6,250 Post Time: 3:57
Traveller (#5) feels like the safest bet in a race that’s as good as wide open. He’s hit the board 8 times in 16 starts at this distance and he gets one of the top riders, Gaddiel Martinez, in the saddle. The only other horse I kind of like in this spot is If I Were You (#2), who turned decent speed figured in his last two starts that should make him competitive.
Race 2 selections:5-2
RACE 3 – 1 mile, Maiden Claiming $15,000 Post Time: 4:24
The Early All-Routes Pick-3 (they don’t call it that but they should market it with that branding) comes to a close with this maiden claimer. I like T’ray (#2) in this spot, coming out of the high-percentage Scooter Davis barn and getting Israel Rodriguez back in the irons. While Kevin Rice has a low winrate with first-time starters, I’m penciling in Talkin Tough (#4) for second. This horse went 36.2 seconds over 3 furlongs two works ago, and as an Independence Hall progeny, should like having 8 furlongs to run over. Kevin Rice’s other runner Alexander K (#5) was only beaten ¾ of a length in 3rd last out, nicked for second by Tinseltown (Race 1). Keep an eye on the Paul McEntee runner Handsome Jimmy (#1), a horse who’s done no running in both of his career starts. His last work was a sharp 36.2 seconds over 3 furlongs, and hopefully we haven’t seen him actually try being a race horse yet, meaning there could be untapped potential there.
Race 3 selections:2-4-5-1
RACE 4 – 6 furlongs, Claiming $5,000 Post Time: 4:51
If I could get a piece of Grand Tortugon (CHI) (#3) at his morning line of 6-1, I’d be content losing a couple bucks. He’s had a rough start-and-stop flow to his recent form, but I think returning to the Erie tapeta where he’s won 7 times in 24 starts will fix the 9-year-old gelding right up. That being said, the horse who promises to be the biggest threat is Summerfest (#4). The Summer Front son is the picture of consistency, turning 4 BSF’s between 53 and 59 in his last 4 starts. I see no reason why this horse would take a step back, but I’m banking on #3 having a higher ceiling. I’ll slot in the aptly named Third City (#6) for third. This horse did no running at a mile 70 yards last time, so I’ll hinge on that having a race in and cutting distance will work out for this horse
Race 4 selections:3-4-6
RACE 5 – 1 mile, Claiming $6,250 Post Time: 5:18
There seems to be a real lack of effective speed in this race, which is why I’m going to hedge that Lucy Playa (#4) didn’t fluke her last speed figure of 53 in running away from a lighter field last time out. She broke well under Mike Allen last time, so if they can repeat that I think they could go wire to wire. For second, I’m opting to take Kitten’s War (#6), a horse who has a lot of consistency to her speed figures. Kevin Rice is 28% bringing horses back after 180 day or longer layoffs, so I’ll trust he has this one ready to fire her first time back. Little Martha (#8) has some good results at this distance and turned in a 1 minute work over 5 furlongs, but I think she’ll come up wanting in the front-end duel, and will settle for third.
Race 5 selections: 4-6-8
RACE 6 – 1 mile 70 yards, Claiming $25,000 Post Time: 5:45
Maximum Faith (#5) stands out as the better of the two clear speed horses in this field. He’s making his second start as a 4-year-old, and should be able to run away on an unbiased track. Diver (#6) will hope the #5 wears himself out, so he can past like he did in their last race. I don’t see that happening today. The other prices in this race don’t interest me, so I’ll be boring and slot the 2-1 The Great Oscar (#4) into third. He has the consistency, and has shown that he prefers the all-weather, so his class should stand out against the back half of the field.
Race 6 selections: 5-6-4
RACE 7 – 6 ½ furlongs, Starter Optional Claiming $13,500 Post Time: 6:12
I distinctly remember touting Timeforanangel (#4) as the easiest of pick-5 singles, then being there in person when she broke miserably and never got to the front. While she is a very classy Not This Time mare who could in the future could end up as a hot broodmare prospect given her pedigree, I’m looking elsewhere at the risk of her making me eat my words a second time. I’m going to play on a hunch and say Loaded Once More (#2) could fire big in this race. In her last start she lost to the #4 by nearly 5 lengths, but looking closer tells us something interesting. This horse hadn’t registered an official workout since the 24th of November at Mahoning Valley. I believe it’s highly likely her last race was a paid workout, and she should be ready to take on the #4 and get the better of her. I do think #4 is classy enough to get second, especially if she breaks well this time. My Janet (#9) is dropping in tag and should be a safe bet to mark down for third here, as I suspect many horses here are due for steps back in form.
Race 7 selections: 2-4-9
RACE 8 – 6 furlongs, Claiming $12,000 Post Time: 6:39
The latter half of the card, like usual, makes for some very difficult sequences to get through. I don’t like the fact that a lot of these horses are coming back two weeks later, so perhaps the tag dropping Bindi (#10) gets it done. Leading rider Antonio Gallardo gets the call for this 4-year-old filly by Ransom The Moon, and she was well-beaten by a horse named Oklahoma Smoke running a career-best race. Her 57 BSF is the highest of the field, and William Morey is 21% in getting these horses ready two races removed from a layoff. Sweet Carol James (#2) is a threat if she gets a better trip than her last race, where she was pushed 8-wide into the turn to get third. If the front-end types burn out, Bucchini (#7) is in the right spot to strike, showing the ability to pass horses in her last two starts.
Race 8 selections:10-2-7
Usually I’d say see you next week, but I’ll be posting selections tomorrow and Friday for the special July Fourth cards with earlier post times (not known yet if those will change with the incoming heat wave). Hope to see you back tomorrow for more Presque Isle action.
