Woodbine 9/20/2020 – Coatney Review

Race 7: Summer Stakes (G1) 8f (T) – one turn configuration

Another great race to dive into the story lines like we did with Count Again in the Woodbine Mile yesterday. Will the Saratoga shippers form hold, the GP invader with speed wire the field, or the hometown heroes get the job done?

  • Best Value: #6 Heat of the Night (12-1) Wire-to-wire is what we’re looking for here. Hamm is an astonishing 25% with 2 year olds in stakes company (n=69). When looking at just Woodbine, he’s won half the races he enters with those conditions, albeit the small sample size of 6 starters. In an event where there seems to be minimal pace and with horses that do not love to pass (see Dolder Grand or Ready to Repeat), getting out loose on the lead might be the winning formula. Diving into the race last out down in GP, that figure earned should be a few points higher in my book: traveled wide to make a move on the 2/5 favorite on the day, closed home well to get past. Emma-Jayne gets the mount is very savvy both from a pace and trip tactics. Value line is around 8-1.
  • Next Best: #7 Dolder Grand (8-1) This is the only horse that had a bad race out last time. All the others either had easy leads or soft fractions. Against Download in the last event, was forced to make one sustained bid from about 5-6 lengths back entering the far turn. Everything was done very professionally, especially when you consider this was the first outing for this $800k purchase. I think they decided to take their time with this one and we’ll see  a very nice improvement by stalking the speeds (which we think will come from Ready to Repeat and Secret Potion).
  • Defensive Use: #5 American Monarch (5/2) Looks to want all of this distance based on the last running against the #2 Secret Potion. Had a wide trip and closed well to get the job done. Bill Mott is only 1 for 15 second career start in a stakes company event, so the likely short price around 2-1 doesn’t get us excited.
  • Fading: Ready to Repeat (9/2): Didn’t look comfortable in the last showdown between the main rival Gretzky The Great – the head carriage of this one in the backstretch looked inefficient and rank. Overall, the trip was an easy one: cozy pocket trip but just couldn’t get the job down at the top of the lane. Maybe that’s due to a bit of the race flow up front, with no one making up ground in the race. The stat that has us alarmed, Gail Cox is 1 for 20 with 1st time Lasix with 2 year olds.

Race 8: Alw 8.5 (T)

Fun bunch in this wide open event and we’re banking that Vegas Kitten isn’t a loose leader.

  • Best Value: #5 Desolator (20-1) Trainer is 24% moving synth to the turf. We love seeing these DNF’s (did not finish) in a few running lines as long as we can justify them, so let’s try. Last out wanted no part of the washed off turf event on the Tapeta (yes, Vegas Kitten outperformed there). Two back was going 9f, again on the Tapeta, leading a breakneck pace against some very classy horses including the Queen’s Plate winner, Mighty Heart. Going back four starts ago is where we get excited, seeing those TimeForm neutral fractions, the horse being spotted 5+ lengths back, and closing well into the race. Today should get plenty of pace with the likes of Vegas Kitten. Trainer knows how to win on turf.
  • Most Logical: #3 Pleasecallmeback (6-1) Attfield brings this horse back off after a bit of a break. Two back tried tangling with some very nice horses like Fancy Liquor who just won the G2 American Turf on Derby Day. Last out had a bit of a trip, getting squeezed in the last 3 or 4 jumps, so give a few extra credit points on the PP line. The class level today is much more suiting and can stay on or near the pace in this event. Value line stands around 5-1.
  • Consideration: #6 Awesome Tiger (20-1) first time gelding with a strong recent workout.
  • Beatable Favorite: #7 Unilateral (3-1) After the maiden win tried Tapeta but couldn’t close from out of the clouds (same race our top choice was in, setting that hot pace). Now bounces back to the Turf and needs everything to go right, the pace needs to heat up, trips need to be worked out, and a step forward.

Race 9: Natalma Stakes G1 8f (T) – one turn configuration

Another eye crossing stakes race. Lets dive in!

  • Best Value: #1 Stunning Princess (12-1) On debut ran a good one against Plum Ali, now a stakes winner. Last out got a bit of soft fractions on the front end and couldn’t get the job done. Maybe that had to do with the Good surface on the day. Might step forward at a nice price.
  • Most Logical: #6 Lady Speightspeare (5/2) Has the best speed, showed can put away horses late down the late by grinding out. Value line stands around 6/5 for this second start for Attfield.
  • Considerations: #2 Seasons (8-1) Had a bit of issues down on the rail in the last event. I didn’t see “Greenly” as much as I did trouble by other horses. Today should get a nice cozy pocket trip and close into the speeds of the outside horses (Dreaming of Drew, Alda, etc.)
  • Beatable Favorite: #5 Alda (9/5) Let’s start with a contender this one faced in the last event: Illegal Smile. As we saw yesterday, this horse LOOOVVEESS to stop in the final 16th (cost a few bucks yesterday in the pick four, we’re not bitter). I believe the form is being flattered a bit by the passing moves of both Alda and Dreaming of Drew because they were setup by the fast pace of Illegal Smile, that again LOOOVESSS to stop in the final 16th. At the price, we can’t back. This one sits around 6-1 on the value line.

Race 10: Clm $10k 7f (AW)

  • Best Value: #3 Epilogue (8-1) Decent speed, loves Tapeta, jockey upgrade, gets the class relief.
  • Beatable Favorite: #5 Kitten’s Solution (2-1) Says traveled 3-5 wide but traveled 6 feet less than winner, Crawl from the Bar.
  • Beatable Favorite: #9 Badjeros Boy (7/2) Has to have everything go right to get the win: trip, pace and the break. Value line is around 10-1.

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