Race 8: Alw 6.5 (T)
If playing horizontals, you have to be scared if Silent Poet isn’t on your tickets.
- Best Value: #7 Silent Jimmie (15-1) Last out was making a good move on the Tapeta to try and catch Pink Lloyd after sitting back 6-8 lengths before making that move. The 8th place finish, being beaten 3 lengths, is a bit deceiving. The 3rd through 8th placed runners were only separated by a length or less. As for the race two back, closed well and did what the betting public expected. Three back is where we start to get a bit excited. The move in deep stretch to bounce 5 paths out to try and circle Pink Lloyd wasted tons of ground and momentum, all while trying to pass that monster who had a clean trip. TimeForm US says the early part of the race was coded Blue, so extra credit to this horse for making up so much ground late. This horse is light on figures, but with the proper setup (Silent Poet and Real Money need to duel), could pass rivals deep in the stretch.
- Most Logical: #1 Silent Poet (6/5) Nothing creative: best class, fastest in-race TimeForm US figures, decent post draw, no other rival speeds, and Beyers are 5+ points the better than the field. We didn’t put on top as the 6/5 will likely shorten below even money. Our value line stands around the even money, 6/5.
Race 9: Bull Page Stakes 7.5f (T)
Two year old boys taking on the inner turf course in this stakes race.
- Best Value: #4 All Canadian (4-1) Gail Cox continues to impress with this trainee. Each race continues to build upon the last in terms of both speed figures and looks. Last out faced the morning favorite today, #7 Dragon’s Brew (1-1). Did catch the rail on the day, but down the backstretch was bothered over and over again as the horse tried to make a move. They’re subtle and can be easily see with the jockey’s hand position in the replay at 4:58:08 and a few seconds after. Tight and low (rating) vs. moving up and vigorous. This pattern is repeated a few times. Good thing for us, that wasn’t written in the program, so we should eek out good value here.
- Beatable Favorite: Dragon’s Brew (1-1) Backing short priced 2 year olds is always going to be risky with the volatility in performance horses can show. Last out made a winning move and won well. However, today has to try turf for the first time and go a bit further. I can easily see the same ride, wide move to try and break apart the race, but the sustained bid might fade the last 16th and one of these closers grinds past. Trainer is only 12% moving synth to turf, and he’s never won doing that with 2 year olds. Knowing that Tiller doesn’t do this switch often at this age, I’m fading this one in all horizontal plays.
Race 10: OC $65k 9f (AW)
Limited speed signed on for the 9f event
- Best Value: #5 View Finder (12-1) Without much speed in this race, I can see this one sitting off the pace and making a steady move. Trainer has a $4.01 ROI on routes and over past two months has sent out 3 winners for 15 starts with a $8.30 ROI. With not much else in here scaring me, we’ll take the extra value on this stalk and close type.
- Next Best: #4 Magic Tapit (7/2) Nothing terribly creative here for this likely second choice. Should be in the front pack or on the lead. Without any other pace pressure, this one could be loose.
- Wait and See: #1 Dream Maker (5/2) Was bet down hard on debut after a year layoff. Faded after dueling with the eventual winner. Last out tried to tussle with the better turf horses in Woodbine, which didn’t pan out well. Today gets the lighter spot, but I’m not still convinced this horse is that good, only winning twice: maiden level and a non-winners of one (n1x) level. We’ll wait and see if Cassee has righted the ship for this one.
Race 11: MOC $40k 7.5f (T)
Look for clues in race 9 as a few of these are exiting a race with All Canadian or Avoman.
- Best Value: #4 Breathlessthesand (8-1) Last out took on the stakes entrants in race 9. Ran well enough trying to close. On debut was rained off the turf and ran into grade 1 winning horse, Gretzky the Great. Today gets class relief and should work out a perfect ground saving trip. Figures fit perfect.
- Next Best #1: Lil Bit Gangsta (10-1) Curious to see if the second start can product a more sustained speed style out of this one. Without too much other speed, could be an easy wire-to-wire win.
- Fade Candidate: #8 Giant Waters (4-1) Last race was flattered by the pace setup and figures came back lighter than our top choice.
- Fade Candidate: #10 Galvaston (5/2) Is going to have to use a lot of early energy to establish position. Figures are light, bad post draw, and the first try on turf is not a recipe for backing a favorite
- Fade Candidate: #11 Knight Kingdom (6-1) Did not look great trying to even keep up in the early parts of the debut race. Without the tactical speed, can see this one getting parked way wide around the track.
