Woodbine 9/5/2020 – Coatney Review

Race 8: Clm $5k 6f (AW)

A prior race with a 23-1 shot led us to our top choice.

  • Most Logical: #6 Macho T (3-1) Last out showed nice early speed with a 23-1 shot that stayed on to win while Macho T dropped anchor. That day was run at a higher class level with the dueling partner/eventual winner coming out of the OC$75k ranks. They went 44 and change to the half, a pace that is blistering fast. Today should get an easier go of things on the front end in this race.
  • Best Value: #7 Thanks Again (8-1) With the speed and fade types drawn down inside, this one could sit back handy and make a closing trip starting at the top of the turn. I don’t imagine will be more than 4-6 lengths back entering the far turn. Note that the last race ran against a few others entered in here today, could provide you some clues.

Race 9: Vigil Stakes G3 6f (AW)

Lots of entrants with exposed form, so we’ll look for an upside horse to take down the favorite.

  • Best Value: #9 Roaring Forties (12-1) Gets drawn wide but that doesn’t bother us considering the price he’ll be. The last race with Pink Lloyd was biting off too much: 8 month layoff and 0.5 panel too far. There’s more upside with this one based on the 3 year old foundation and speed. Value line for this one is around 10-1.
  • Next Best: #6 Olympic Runner (5/2) Had a bit worse of a trip that Pink Lloyd’s ground saving ride. Was 2-3 lengths behind Pink Lloyd exiting the far turn and had to hesitate for several jumps until the hole opened up. With the shorter distance and no clear speed balls, the stalking trip doesn’t seem to favor the pace dynamic today. Value line stands around 8-1 and we can’t back at 5/2.
  • Too Short To Back: Pink Lloyd (1-1 but expect 3/5) What a monster of a horse winning last out, finding a hole and driving past the wire. I can’t place this horse as a top choice only due to price. Value line stands around 3/2 for us. On the day we can expect 4/5 or less, especially considering the market will recognize Pink Lloyd has already won against most of this bunch.

Race 10: MoC $40k 6f (AW)

Might be some value in this open event. 

  • Best Value: #1 Drumgreenaghbridge (20-1) Showed us some nice speed out of the gate lats time, coming up too short and dueling wide traveling an extra 25 ft than the winner. This horse should have more stamina today: second start, first time lasix, and another 5f work under her belt. This is a “winner or run out type” as we will either see a wire-to-wire win or fade back to last at the top of the stretch.
  • Most Logical: #7 Tizlegal (2-1) Looks like the logical one here based on class and has proven can run decent figures. Only problem being, those figures were on grass. Value line is 3-1 and we expect the tote to reflect well below that.

 

Race 11: MC $10k 8.5f (T)

Top Choice: #9 Naked Illusion (8-1) Feels like this one is getting the right class level on the right surface, considering the first two races were on the turf. Nathan Squires owns and trains this one, which we always like to see. The pace flow should setup nicely for a stalking trip in the second flight of horses, saving ground. There’s not much that scares us in here, so let’s make sure we can get all of our 8-1 value line.

Next Best: #8 Natural Habitat (10-1) Keeps getting close but can’t work out the right trip for that elusive win. Projects to be in the first flight of horses. Due to the wide draw, this could lead to ground loss.

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