Race 8: Mdn 6.5f (AW)
Look to the tote board for clues, especially for #8 Rumpus.
- Most Logical: #9 Souper Munnings (7/5) Looked great on debut but had a bit of a bad trip, being carried wide throughout the entire trip. This race shapes up to force this one go to wide again. But going wide doesn’t have me bothered because being stuck on the rail in maiden events can lead to trouble (speed and fade types blocking lanes) . The added distance today from 5f to 6.5f should flatter this horse’s running style, based on that last race.
- Next Best: #8 Rumpus (6-1) This Fair Hill shipper for Stidham gets to debut on the Tapeta. Has a solid string of nine works dating back to June, so I expect this one to be live. Without much pace in this race, this horse should be able to stay in touch with the field and finish well. The gate work three back gives us confidence she will be able to get away cleanly.
Race 9: Mdn 7f (T)
Beyond the clear favorite, this is a very tricky race. If #8 Union Colonel doesn’t fire, there’s value.
- Most Logical: #8 Union Colonel (5/2) Ships in from Saratoga to face this bunch today. Tried twice over at Saratoga to get the win but faded down the lane after setting the pace. Today should get a clean trip with no other serious speed threats. The distance going one turn for the 7f should suit.
- Best Value: #6 Red Mercury (20-1) We’ll ask that you squint at the PP’s to try and see our vision for this one. Last out did not look relaxed down the backstretch, pulling and fighting the jockey. Then had to travel wide to try and catch up with the heavy favorite Muskoka Giant at 3/2. Red Mercury was the only horse that was gaining ground late. As for today, cutting back in distance by a furlong should fit perfectly, leaving a bit more in the tank to catch the heavy favorite, our top choice, down the lane.
Race 10: OC $40k 7f (AW)
Hunting for a price with the chaos that’s likely to take place. Look at race 8/16/20 Race 11 for clues with five runners in here coming out of that event.
- Best Value: #3 Sunspear (15-1) Has posted several decent figures on the Tapeta course. Last out didn’t have the closing kick on the turf. Today gets the more suited surface and should get a great ground saving ride from Emma-Jayne. Real contender.
- Most Logical: #2 Have a Souper Day (3-1) From what we wrote on 8/30 still holds true: “Can hang around with solid pace calls throughout the 7f event. Should show speed even more today with addition of blinkers.” The only problem was those blinkers didn’t work as the connections abandon that experiment today and go back to the races without. We’ll need to wait and see how this one does today before putting as a top choice.
- Exotic Use: #8 North Battleford (20-1) What caught my eye was the two strong works on the Tapeta back on Aug 2nd and 9th. That suggests the horse might like Tapeta better than the turf. Last out on the turf, was well behind throughout and had nothing left. My opinion is the jockey conserved the horse as there was zero chance of hitting the board, so the running line looks worse than it actually is. Today, let’s hope the new surface wakes this horse up.
Race 11: MC $10k 8.5f (T)
The one turn configuration for this big field.
- Best Value: #7 The Newfie Express (12-1) Hits the right class level today. Last out didn’t get a pace to run into and the distance was a bit too short going 6.5f. Today will get much more pace to run into with the inside speeds projecting to get into a pace duel. If can run back to the race three back (7/3/20), this horse wins this race.
- Most Logical: #3 Our Uncle Drew (5/2) Cool name, right? Should be able to tuck in behind the two horses on his inside, yielding a ground saving trip. Has proved to have finish at the distance, and we’ll expect the same today at this class level.