While many of the top contenders for Breeders’ Cup races have already made their final start and are training up to the Breeders’ Cup, the same cannot be said for the juveniles as the next few weeks will be key in sorting out those divisions. Two important milestones on the road to the 2YO turf races are going down north of the border this weekend at Woodbine. Thanks to this Steve Byk tweet, we have an idea of where the many cross-entered Mark Casse trainees will end up, so that eases the handicapping puzzle a bit.
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Selections
- Race 5 – Natalma: 11-13-7-2
- Race 9 – Summer: 4-2-9-13
Woodbine Race 5: G1-Natalma Stakes 500k
Mark Casse is sending out six runners in this field, yet none are listed at single-digit odds on the morning line. Mountain Breeze (#13) figures to be very tough in this spot as Charlie Appleby has made these fall stakes races at Woodbine into his own personal ATM. In fact, over the last five years his chargers are 8/10 (80%, $2.47 ROI) at this track with all of those starts coming in Grade 1’s. I don’t know what more shocking about that statistic, the 80% strike rate or the fact that only produces a $2.47 ROI. She’s been competitive against Group company in Europe so this could even be a drop in class. I’m going to play against the other short prices on the morning line as the NY Bred Annascaul (#1) was allowed to control things in her debut and Italian Soiree (#2) needs to prove herself on grass. I like one from the Casse army as my top pick and will be betting Vixen (#11). This daughter of hit freshman sire Vekoma has already handled the one mile distance last time at Ellis and was third behind a future stakes winner in her debut. The other Casse trainee I could use somewhere is And One More Time (#7) who enters off a dirt maiden win, but has trained forwardly on grass and has enough pedigree for this surface switch out dam who raced exclusively on grass for Shug McGaughey and has produced turf stakes winners Churchtown and Simply in Front.
Woodbine Race 9: G1-Summer Stakes 500k
The gaudy Charlie Appleby stat that I highlighted earlier also applies to Al Qudra (#9) who is the likely favorite in the G1-Summer Stakes. After finishing a close 5th in a 22-horse Group 2 at Royal Ascot this summer, he easily took a listed stakes last out over today’s rival New Century (#10). It’s also worth noting that he’s been in the States for a while preparing for this venture as he sports three turf works when with Appleby’s Saratoga string. It appears as if Mark Casse will go with just three of the eight he’s entered in the Summer with most of the cross-entered fillies opting for the Natalma. Of those I think Dream On (#2) is the most appealing. One of his top riders, Sahin Civaci, opts to ride him despite having other choices. He was second-best in the Soaring Free last time, but projects to have more upside than Cairo Caper (#6) who defeated him in that spot. However, my top pick is actually a Godolphin runner not trained by Charlie Appleby as I made First Resort (#4) the top pick. He’s cross-entered at Churchill for the Iroquois, but I’m hoping connections opt to go after the G1. It’s rare that an Eoin Harty trainee wins their debut and this colt did it well on an off track at Ellis. There’s a relationship at times between horses that handle wet dirt surfaces and the grass plus he’s bred for the switch. He’s by Uncle Mo out of Fair Maiden who won a stakes race over this course as a 2YO. My longshot to consider would be Forty N Five (#13) who has the right amount of tactical speed to overcome the outside draw. He’s trained by Josie Carroll, one of the top conditioners on this circuit and the win over 7f on synthetic should provide the necessary foundation to handle this mile trip on the grass.
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