Race 1: #4 Silent Patsy (10-1)
Tricky field of unreliable two year olds to kick off the week, but I do know I am against the likely favorites in this spot. #1 Texensis (3-1) is the morning line favorite and I am most eager to let her beat me if she’s a short price. Sure, she has some back numbers that are relatively decent, but she’s mostly been a plodder that picks up the pieces while getting well-beaten. Her most competitive race by far came two back when she closed to finish fourth, but even that day she lost to today’s rival #8 Working Holiday. Throw in the career-worst effort last time and I’ll gladly let her beat me. #8 Working Holiday (7/2) will also take some money in here, but she’s another making her sixth career start already and has failed to show any progression despite having decent numbers relative to this group. But she was supposed to take a step forward last time on the class drop and instead we got her worst performance since the debut.
I think #4 Silent Patsy (10-1) is an interesting price horse to consider. She had a decent educational debut going just five furlongs when she broke slowly and lagged well behind the rest of the field. She started finding her best stride late and picked up a stragglers to finish fifth in a race where the speed mostly held together. Second time out she unsuccessfully tried two turns after dueling throughout the duration of that race. The top three finishers all came from the back half of the field that day so it wasn’t as bad of a performance when considering the race flow. It was also a big ask to stretch out 3.5 more furlongs after just a single five furlong race so I can forgive that performance. I like that she’s basically paired up Beyer-tops, suggesting that she could take a step forward in start number three, and it’ll only take minimal improvement to have a say against these foes. I also like that she should be dead fit cutting back to seven furlongs and she’s shown the ability to be forwardly placed. I like her chances quite a bit in this spot and would be willing to back her at as low as 5-1 (though obviously hoping for higher).
Race 4: #7 Charlotte’s Silver (6-1)
#7 Charlotte’s SIlver (6-1) could be the one to take advantage of a potential quick early pace and come rolling home late. Longshots in #4 Green Gables and #5 Natasha’s Bizniz ensure a solid pace, while logical contenders #1 Sugar is Golden (3-1) and #2 Katchy Name (7/2) typically prefer to be forward too and could get sucked into the hot pace. Charlotte’s Silver has some of the best late pace figures in the field and has proven she can win from just off the pace or from well out of it. That should come in handy since she’s drawn outside all the speed which should allow her rider to see how this race unfolds and adjust accordingly. She’s a tad light on speed figures compared to the two favorites drawn inside, but I’m hoping the race shape and the five pound weight break can help bridge that gap. The slight drop in class can’t hurt her chances either, so let’s give her a shot to post a mild upset at 5-1 or higher.
Race 7: #1 Quiet Maddelena (6-1)
A field of eight fillies and mares will contest today’s seventh race going just five furlongs on the tapeta and there should be plenty of pace for this contest. #6 No Whammie (5/2) will likely take the most money as she has a versatile running style and the best speed figures. However, I am concerned about the layoff since July, as well as the stark difference in grass form versus tapeta form. She’s yet to miss the exacta in four grass tries, while she’s done no better than third in seven tries over the all-weather. It’s a big enough sample for me to have my doubts, so I won’t be backing her when she’ll likely be vying for favoritism. #3 Give Me the Boots (7/2) makes sense as the best speed, and she’s searching for her third consecutive victory. However, the presence of #7 Determined Love (20-1), amongst others, complicates her path to victory so I’m hesitant to back her at too short of a price.
#1 Quiet Maddelena (6-1) seems like the value of the race to me if this morning line holds up. She’s back in against open claimers today as she tries to find the winner’s circle for the third time this year. She put in a solid effort against arguably tougher rivals last time when pressing a hot pace while wide throughout the far turn and just barely missing out for third place. She should appreciate the cutback to the flat five furlongs and she’s drawn perfectly on the inside for a pocket trip. She’s got enough tactical speed to keep the front runners in her sights while getting the jump on the deep closers, and she has recent speed figures that are fast enough to win this race.
