By: Drew Coatney
Saturday, Race #3: The Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile
(Dirt – 1 Mile [two turns, early turn]) 3 YO+
Purse: $1 Million
The big horse comes back for one last dance for his mate, Cody. The pace is hard to ignore in here and sets up well for Cody’s Wish. Although I think he prefers the one turn mile, the pace in here will be ran honestly enough that the two turns should not be a problem.
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- Most Logical Cody’s Wish (9/5) Hard to avoid this horse with the pace present in this race. Last race looked like an absolute workout because Junior put this horse into the race very early tending the slowish pace, then accelerating. The effort didn’t look like a workout as much as they tried to test Cody as much as possible. Two back cross a line. Three back made two moves again and swooped by everyone. I have this upgraded a bit. I would love to see even money on the horse… but 2/5 might be hard to back.
- [SCR] Best Value Algiers (6-1) I don’t get it, comes over here and runs a big clunker at Woodbine. But maybe we can explain that away with the all-weather surface at Woodbine wasn’t most preferred and coming off a lengthy layoff. Trainer said this was the backup plan to run at Woodbine as Belmont has been rained on. So maybe the plan was just to get a race in before the big dance. Today gets back on the right surface and has a pace to run into. What catches my eye: he was a solid second choice two back in Dubai World Cup and ran a massive race. Wide entire way around and near the hot pace to run on well. The cut back to the mile should favor is grindy style who will be right in the thick of things late if can run back to the UAE form.
- [SCR] Next Best Practical Move (3-1) First off the layoff did things well but against a light field. Reins were very tight all the way down the lane so there’s more in the tank and this horse could be sitting on the biggest race of his life. Is a tactical type of horse and will be sitting in the pocket or 2w and trying to kick on late. I do have races two and three back with fairly easy trips, but there’s not saying this horse wouldn’t get the same type of trip on Saturday.
- Next Best: #5 Charge It (5-1) Big cut back horse who ran mostly at longer 9-10f distances. Without Algeries and Practical Move, this horse should have the perfect spot to sit behind the two speeds and carry on late if Cody doesn’t fire from the back of the pack. Ran against Cody in the Met Mile and was very outclassed, but maybe that was the hot early pace and wide trip. Pletcher knows very well he has to run against Cody where they got blasted. He comes in here with a shot.
Considerations
- Fading/#9 National Treasure (8-1) Horse with some meh figures overall, but that will help the price. Last out was a non-finish at 1/8 pole after tacking kick back and caught in a neutral pace flow with some serious horses up front. Two and three back was going long against the top classic winners. Today gets a huge cutback and if makes it to front end could be hard to chase down. The lone loss to Practical move the jockey threw in the towel at the ¼ pole and maybe was just not right. I hope connections realize… this horse needs the lead.
- Fading/#8 Shirl’s Bee (20-1) Would expect 50-1 on the day, Dallas Stewart and Fipke have a habit of blowing up a tote board but this one feels like a bridge too far. The most unexposed form and did nothing in the prep coming in here. Could maybe hit the super if this horse steps up in a big way, but very hard to back.
- Fading/#4 Zosos (6-1) Cox will have Flo send this one from the inside draw, has serious speed but hasn’t beaten much. There’s enough pace pressure in here from our top choices that this one won’t get too far away.
- Fading/#1 Stage Rider (15-1) Limited stakes experience and has been getting soft fractions. Last out was a suck up ride with the flow behind Zosos. Today faces toughest challenge with both class and pace.
- Fading/#6 Skippylongstocking (12-1) Speed horse who will be trying to gain the lead over Zosos from the inside. I think the closers in this race will have this one covered and past by the 1/8th pole.
