Saturday, Race #6: The Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Distaff
(Dirt – 1 1/8 Miles) 3 YO+ Fillies and Mares
Purse: $2 Million
A tough race here. Idiomatic has been getting softer TF us fractions, so if she has some pace pressure, this could get interesting.
- Top Choice: #9 Clairiere (4-1) Back to the well once more on this horse and this race sets up perfectly for her. There are so many need the lead or pressing the pace types in here, the pace looks to be warm (not hot). Has yet to get a pace to run into in last three races. Last out she was in the slop and threw in the towel with very soft fractions. Two back in the Shuvee got caught in slow fractions. Nothing went right in the Shuvee, thinking she had the rail, got pushed 2w while Nest had the advantage of being placed ahead and near the slow pace. Today should get her run of the race, over a fast track with speed up front.
- Best Value: #3 Pretty Mischievous (8-1) Last out ran over a sloppy race track at Parx was the favorite and couldn’t get anything going late with the neutral pace flow. Today should get something to run at (similar to the oaks) and be the first to get the jump on the front runners (Idio, Adare Manor). Has run some very solid numbers and is right in the mix with this group.
- Next Best: #5 Adare Manor (4-1) Speed type of horse who will be right off the hip of Idiomatic (5/2). Last out led the entire way around and geared down late, a complete tightener for this spot. Two back stalked the pace and stalled a bit, grinding home for the win, not her best stuff. Three back is what I love to see, faced adversity early getting smashed twice out of the gate but ran tough and carried on. Could pop a big beyer here with Baffert pointing for this race.
- Fading: /#4 Idiomatic (5/2) I don’t get the favoritism hype on this horse. Has gotten SOFT paces to run into a lead. The only time this horse had to face some adversity was against a second choice favorite at Delaware Park. Today is going to have to deal with California speed and really show her true grit. I don’t think she’s the best here, just well spotted in each race. Today if she sits the pocket could just be the best grinder style who lets the speeds duel and swoops up for the win if Clairiere is too far back. But again, I don’t want to take heavy favoritism on a horse that has been getting everything her way
