Saturday, Race #10: The Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint
(Turf – 5 Furlongs) 3 YO+
Purse: $1 Million
Can a 5 furlong turf dash really be the most tactically fascinating race of a Breeders’ Cup?
For at least 1/8th of a mile, the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint could be. With an unreal amount of speed coming from quite literally all corners of the world, post position could not be more critical in this early scramble for position.
Only one foreigner has ever taken down the Turf Sprint when Glass Slippers upset the field in 2020. Due to this race shifting distance and configurations with the rotating nature of the Breeders’ Cup, the history books get rather slim. Even though the Turf Sprint has been run at Santa Anita seven times since the race’s inception, only once was it run at 5 furlongs on the flat course (2019). That event was won by Belvoir Bay, who used her speed and outside post to clear rivals before winning the race with relative ease. While that race had a similar amount of speed as this race on paper, the intensity of the speed in this year’s race should set up a much more different running.
The two quickest horses, interestingly enough, come from overseas. #5 Live In the Dream (9/2 ML) rose the British ranks over the year and earned G1 glory when winning the Nunthorpe S. at York, a Win-and-You’re-In for this race. He then prepped for the Turf Sprint by running the G2 Woodford S. at Keeneland, setting one of the fastest paces you’ll ever see and leading up until inside the final 100 yards. Cutting back a sixteenth will do him wonders. He’ll be joined on the front end by #11 Jasper Krone (12-1 ML), who is a multiple G3 winner in Japan and was only beaten 2 lengths in G1 company last out. We know the Japanese have been dangerous in the Breeders’ Cup and this colt has plenty of good form over there.
The two others who could vie for first call leadership are defending champ, #3 Caravel (5-1 ML), and the well-regarded #7 Nobals (6-1 ML). Despite coming off of two losses in a row, Caravel is still very likely to end up favored for a myriad of reasons. For one, her last two races came over less-than-Firm ground, which she has shown a disdain for throughout her career. She also wasn’t able to make the lead in either race, and it has been clear since she joined the Brad Cox barn two years ago that she does her best work when she’s on top early. Nobals may have prepped in a light stakes at Colonial for this race, but he is 3-for-4 on the year and has a G3 win over many of his rivals here. His lone loss was in the G3 Troy S. at Saratoga where he finished in front of Caravel. Like everyone else mentioned so far, making the lead is imperative to their success.
The remaining eight off-the-pace runners can all be easily categorized from here. Two Clements. Two D’Amatos. Two Kentucky stakes winners. Two Euros.
#9 Roses for Debra (12-1 ML) is one half of the Christophe Clement-trained duo. The other PA-bred grey mare (Caravel being the other) in the Turf Sprint, she exits a complete toss out race when running on Pennsylvania Derby day, where the turf could be described as “worse than yielding”. Prior to that she had won four in a row, including the G3 Caress S. at Saratoga, and despite having no winning experience against males this race has often lends itself well to female runners. #1 Big Invasion (15-1 ML) is the other Clement and presents an interesting case study. One of the most exciting, young turf sprinters this year, he has one great performance for every puzzling one. He won the G2 Nearctic S. at Woodbine in a thrilling finish, but prior to that disappointed against weaker at Saratoga. He nearly beat Caravel in the G1 Jaipur S. in June, but one start before was well back behind similar company in the G2 TwinSpires Turf Sprint. He is a winner on many occasions over a flat 5 furlongs and needs to prove he can put together two good races in a row this year.
Phil D’Amato’s pair both come out of graded stakes wins. #4 Tony Ann (15-1 ML) defeated Caravel last time out at Keeneland in the G2 Franklin S. but had no graded wins prior. She is only 1-for-3 at a flat 5 furlongs, so she may want just a touch further, however she is circling into top form at the right time and has quality back class with the last win. #10 Motorious (5-1 ML) has been razor sharp all year, never running worse than 2nd in 5 starts. He comes off a near two length win in the G3 Green Flash H. at Del Mar, taking his 5 furlong record to 2-for-2. He also proved he could be competitive with this company when a close second in the G2 TwinSpires Turf Sprint behind Nobals. Looks like a formidable runner for connections that teamed up to win this race in 2016.
Both runners who won graded stakes in Kentucky last time out did so at prices. #12 Arzak (6-1 ML) won the G2 Woodford over tough company at 11-1, using the rapid pace to his advantage and picking off tiring horses late. He had been beaten by similar rivals, or worse, on many occasions throughout his career but did also post a career best Beyer last time out. #6 Gear Jockey (12-1 ML) was an even bigger price, 23-1, when winning the G2 Kentucky Downs Turf Sprint over 6 ½ furlongs. 1-for-8 lifetime at 5 or 5 ½ furlongs (the lone win at 5 1/2), trainer Rusty Arnold even said earlier this week that it will be difficult for this horse to win at the configuration offered.
The remaining two runners, both from Europe, both have G1 merits overseas this year. #2 Bradsell (5-1 ML) won the G1 King’s Stand S. at Royal Ascot in June over this distance, powering home nicely and looking a sharp prospect for the rest of 2023. However, he’s disappointed in both starts since, including a loss to Live in the Dream two back. On his best day, he’s a player, but it’s hard to tell when his best day will be. #8 Aesop’s Fables (12-1 ML) fits the mold of many Aidan O’Brien Turf Sprint starters of old. Run in as many European G1 sprints as possible, maybe hit the board in one or two, but never break through at the top level. He was beaten only one length in a G1 last time out, but history tends to repeat itself with these kinds of runners.
