Saturday, Race #9: The Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Classic
(Dirt – 1 1/4 Miles) 3 YO+
Purse: $6 Million
What a race! I had a really hard time with this year’s BC Classic and some developments on Monday did not make it any easier. Arcangelo had an issue that eventually led to being scratched Tuesday morning, Ushba Tesoro threw a fit in his starting gate schooling session, and Arabian Knight was surprisingly (to me at least) listed as the 3-1 morning line favorite. Let’s dive in!
I’ve thought about this pace scenario a lot over the last couple of weeks and it’s worth mentioning that there have been five editions of the Classic at Santa Anita since they switched back to dirt. Two of the winners went wire-to-wire, and the other three were never worse than 4th at any call. No real surprises here as speed always does well at this distance and at Santa Anita in general, but it did make me give extra attention to the forwardly-placed runners.
I keep going back to the BC Classic from just two years ago at Del Mar. Knicks Go and Medina Spirit were the two clear front runners in the race and I think many expected them to hook up and go at each other early. Obviously that’s not how it developed at all as Medina Spirit was not asked for speed and was quite content to allow Knicks Go to have things his own way. Baffert and Cox trained those two speedballs, and they also train the two main speeds of this year’s Classic. With Cox and Baffert having only one entry each, I have a hard time envisioning those two going at each other from the jump. I think we could see something similar to the ‘21 Classic, where one of the speeds concedes the lead. While Saudi Crown has been on the lead in his last four starts, he had no issue passing rivals in his debut at Keeneland and won impressively. Add the fact that he could be distance challenged and maybe Florent doesn’t mind going slower early to help him see out the distance. Meanwhile, Arabian Knight was very rank in the one start where they tried to rate and that was also his only defeat. Throw in the 12 post and the aggressive Prat being in the irons, and I think there’s a pretty good chance this will be your clear leader heading into the clubhouse turn (will still be an honest pace).
Let’s stick with #12 Arabian Knight (3-1 ML Favorite) while we’re on the topic. I was bullish on his effort in the Haskell where he wanted no part of rating and instead dueled with a huge longshot that would finish up the track. He understandably tired late and got run down by two very nice horses, but I found it intriguing that he found a second wind and galloped out in front of the field in a good return effort off the bench. It’s true that he didn’t have the toughest of trips early on in the Classic, but I was still impressed with the last half mile of the race. Slow Down Andy took his best shot at him on the turn and might’ve even stuck his head in front as they turned for home, but Arabian Knight turned him back. Then Geaux Rocket Ride came with his best shot, but Arabian Knight would not be denied and held on for the score and galloped out way in front. I’m of the opinion that Slow Down Andy is one of the better older runners in the country from 8-9 furlongs based on his underrated performances in last year’s Breeders Cup and this year’s Awesome Again. So the fact that Arabian Knight shook off Slow Down Andy’s best shot and still had enough to hold off the classy Geaux Rocket Ride gives him extra bonus points. The biggest knock by far is the price. Two weeks ago I thought there was a good chance he’d end up somewhere between 6-1 and 8-1. But the defections of Mage, Forte, and Geaux Rocket Ride have driven his price down significantly and I’m taking more of a wait-and-see approach.
#3 White Abbario (4-1 ML) is another who I will gladly let beat me, mostly because of the price. There seems to be a lot of hype surrounding this runner as he’s been training well in preparation for this. Throw in the monster figure last time and Irad Ortiz doing the steering, and I think there’s a good chance he’ll be vying for favoritism. But I have enough doubts about him that I think it’s worth looking elsewhere. The layoff is a big concern for me as he hasn’t raced since early August. I do like that he’s been at Santa Anita since mid-September, but I don’t like that he missed a workout this past week so I’m not sure where he’s at from a fitness perspective. With this long of a layoff, the margin for error is already razor thin, and Santa Anita is a deep and tiring track. I’m also not convinced that he truly wants a mile and a quarter as his victory in the Whitney came with a perfect set-up over rivals that clearly didn’t want nine furlongs. I’d be more comfortable taking him at a bigger price in the 8-1 range, but there’s no chance that is happening.
#8 Ushba Tesoro (4-1 ML) is looking to become the first horse to pull off the Dubai World Cup/ BC Classic double in the same year and he’s also trying to give Japan its first victory in this race. He’s another though that I have doubts about despite reports that he’s looked sensational in the mornings. That DWC field was probably one of the weakest in recent memory and the second place finisher Algiers (Dirt Mile) doesn’t exactly brighten that form with losses to the likes of Missed the Cut and Arties Storm. Respected speed-figure makers also projected the DWC figure to be significantly slower than the UAE Derby was, which is just unheard of. It’s impossible to say for sure whether that was truly the case, but I still want to be cautious when evaluating that race. I also think he’ll be pretty far back in his first try in America and as I mentioned earlier, this race is almost always won by runners that are near the lead.
I will cautiously make #5 Derma Sotogake (20-1 ML) my top pick in this year’s Breeders Cup Classic. Much has been said about him missing the same prep race that Ushba Tesoro ultimately won, but I actually think it’s a really good sign that he still shows up here. The connections could have easily found a race at home in Japan that he would’ve been favored in, or they could’ve started him slowly and gotten him ready for a crack at the Saudi race or the Dubai World Cup next year. But they went out of their way to send him across the Pacific Ocean to face the best horses in the world off a six month layoff. And it’s not like they sent a large contingent out here-he’s the only horse they sent. I just can’t buy into the narrative that he’s here just for the sake of it, he must be fit and ready to fire. In the UAE Derby he supposedly earned a speed figure in the 105 range and that was as a young three year old in March so he may have improved since. I didn’t think he ran poorly in the Derby despite losing all chance at the start and being out of position throughout. He’s a horse that is going to be forwardly placed if he can break cleanly, and he’ll get first run on the closers if the speed comes back to him. This isn’t a play where I’m breaking the piggy bank to bet every penny I own on him, but I think he’s the value of the field and you’ll get every bit of this 20-1 price.
Few Quick Notes:
-Out of all the deep closers, #13 Proxy (12-1 ML) is the one I want to use underneath. He’s ran two big races at this distance in 2023, he’s run well over this track, and Rosario knows how to ride here. He can be inconsistent, but he’s capable of getting a slice on his best day
–#6 Saudi Crown (12-1 ML) is probably too big of a price with his connections, early speed, and a trio of figures at 105, but I haven’t liked the way he’s finished in his last three races, so I don’t think additional distance will be his friend.
-same with #2 Zandon (12-1 ML) who is coming off a good-looking win at nine furlongs over inferior foes, but has yet to finish strong in either start at 10 furlongs
The Pick: I will let the board dictate my play in this year’s Classic, but in all likelihood #5 Derma Sotogake will be my value play at a massive price. If #12 Arabian Knight drifts up into the 5-1 or 9/2 range, then I would pivot in that direction, but that seems unlikely at this point barring something unexpected.
