Saturday, Race #11: The Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Sprint
(Dirt – 6 Furlongs) 3 YO+
Purse: $2 Million
Likely due to TV contracts and time windows, the grand finale for the 2023 Breeders’ Cup will not be the Classic, as it has been for the other 39 years. Instead, this race will go off as the final Breeders’ Cup Race of the Championship Weekend. While this is a very good race, it’s hard not to wonder what this could have been if Maple Leaf Mel, New York Thunder, and Echo Zulu were able to compete. The field will be compact, with only nine runners entered, and possibly more so than any other race, there is a serious East Coast vs. West Coast vibe happening here. Three of the top California based sprinters are squaring off against two of the best sprinters based on the East Coast.
The winner of this race in 2022, #8 Elite Power (9/5 ML Favorite) will be looking to repeat as champion in 2023. He’s had a four race campaign so far, winning three times. He came up short at seven furlongs when facing his arch rival, #9 Gunite (4-1 ML) in the Grade 1 Forego at Saratoga. He was made the 9-5 morning line favorite while trying to defend his title. He’s a deserving favorite, but he’s not a lock for me in this race, especially at short odds.
Gunite has had a more aggressive campaign, starting seven times in three different countries for Steve Asmussen this year. He was a little flat in the Parx Dirt Mile last month, which was designed to possibly set him up for that race instead. That may have been the plan when Echo Zulu was pointing to this race instead of the Filly and Mare Sprint. However, after her injury, the door opened for him to represent the barn in this big spot. His six furlong efforts this year were exceptional, putting up three huge Beyer figures in his North American tries (104 in the King Cotton and 108 on both the Aristides and the AG Vanderbilt). Asmussen has had him on the grounds early, working four times over the local course in preparation for this race. I think the outside draw in this smaller field (by BC standards), should create a favorable trip for him.
The local contingent features #2 Dr. Schivel (5-1 ML) and #7 Speed Boat Beach (3-1 ML), the top two finishers in the Santa Anita Sprint Championship. Dr. Schivel won that race back in 2021 and was narrowly defeated by Aloha West in this race at Del Mar that year. He was third in the 2022 Golden Shaheen in Dubai. After that, he went to the sidelines until May of this year. He has competed four times in 2023, with his only off the board finish coming in the Met Mile, where he felt ambitiously placed one start after that extended hiatus. Speed Boat Beach has only five career starts, but his two starts in dirt sprints have been huge efforts. There’s a lot of tactical speed signed on here, but he might be the speed of the speed, which could be advantageous. Then there’s the California bred, #6 The Chosen Vron (5-1 ML). He comes into this race riding high on an eight race winning streak. Seven of those wins came against California breds, but he broke through in the Bing Crosby Stakes at Del Mar to earn his first Grade 1 victory. He has 13 wins in 17 starts and has never lost a race at this six furlong distance. He loves this course, losing only once in eight starts here. That came in the seven furlong San Vicente Stakes in his second career start. Others might have a bit more talent, but his tenacity is unquestioned.
Two runners are shipping in from Keeneland after finishing first and second in the Grade 2 Phoenix there. #4 Hoist the Gold (12-1 ML) was aggressively ridden by John Velasquez that afternoon, breaking from the rail in a large field. Front end speed was good, so putting the one close to the lead proved to be a solid decision. That’s not typically his running style, so we’ll see what the tactics are today. His three starts in California have not been. His best finish out here was a third place effort where he was beaten by five lengths in Grade 1 Malibu last December. #1 Nakatomi (15-1 ML) was closing against a mild bias that afternoon, coming within a length of the winner. I don’t see him being fast enough to win this race and I think the six furlong distance is a tad too short for him. While the Phoenix did produce a winner in this race in 2021, I’m not crazy about this race as a prep this year, and these runners are likely not going to be on my tickets.
The two horses that figure to be the longest prices are #3 American Theorem (30-1 ML) and #5 Three Technique (20-1 ML). American Theorem has been dull in his last four starts, including an off the board in this race at Keeneland last fall. Three Technique is in better form, but he’s another one that is likely hindered by this distance. He’s 0-4 in his races at six furlongs, with all of wins coming at one turn, seven or eight furlong races. Both of these are runners that I’ll be passing on.
While I think the winner is going to come from the top-5 runners in this race, how this race is going to play out in terms of the race shape is very much up in the air. Most horses in this field want to be forwardly placed, but there really isn’t a true frontrunner. With Dr. Schivel drawing inside again like he did in the Santa Anita Sprint Championship, I think Juan Hernandez is going to try to put him in play early on. He did that last out, never giving up the rail position, and taking the shortest route to the wire. While Speed Boat Beach might have the most upside, I don’t see Dr. Schivel, Hoist the Gold, or Gunite letting him shake free up front. I see Speed Boat Beach being under pressure from both inside and outside, which is not a winning formula for a young, lightly raced horse. I’ll give the narrow edge to Gunite over Dr. Schivel.
