2024 Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool #5 Preview

The fifth of six future wager pools for the 2024 Kentucky Derby is set to get underway Friday, March 15th, with quite a few major developments coming since the last opportunity. Locked, considered the favorite by many (including yours truly), has come up with an injury that completely knocked him off the trail after missing two expected starts this spring. Quite a few major preps have been run, allowing for the emergence of some contenders, while also raising questions about top names.

This is the most volatile pool to play, as the vast majority of individual offerings will still have one final prep to come in the coming weeks until Pool 6 closes on April 6th, the day after the final 100 point prep races. Value has been sucked from many of the top contenders like Sierra Leone and Timberlake, which means the best reason to get involved in Pool #5 is to find a late bloomer who could come to fruition in the coming weeks. Remember, at this point in the last two years, the Derby winners were last seen running 4th in the Fountain of Youth (Mage) and 4th in the John Battaglia Memorial (Rich Strike). A lot will change on the Derby trail between now and May 4th.

Sierra Leone closed out Pool #4 as the leading individual choice at 6-1 following his Risen Star win, followed by Dornoch (9-1), Timberlake (12-1), and Fierceness (16-1). Those same names sit highest on the morning line leading into the weekend and will likely hold true to those lines, with Sierra Leone very likely to go off at lower odds than the “All Other” category. With that being said, let’s once again dive into the 39 individual offerings:

#1 – Agate Road (40-1 ML): Agate Road was 37-1 when Pool #4 closed after his strong runner up effort in the G3 Sam F. Davis in early February. I spoke of his upside in the last go-round and still believe that the longer ground will further lift this colt’s form even higher. He is penciled in for the G2 Louisiana Derby just over a week from now, and I could see him relishing the 1 3/16 miles put in front of him that day.

#2 – Be You (90-1 ML): Grade 1-placed as a juvenile while still a maiden for Repole and Pletcher, Be You finally broke through in the maiden ranks on Fountain of Youth day. He seems talented but his losses to multiple Derby trail competitors suggests that his breakthrough win was more in thanks to subtraction than superiority.

#3 – Born Noble (80-1 ML): Another Todd Pletcher trainee, Born Noble is still unraced since a second in a first level allowance to Real Macho, later 4th in the Fountain of Youth. Born Noble was originally suggested for that spot but did not start and has not worked since March 1st. Tough to make a case.

#4 – Catching Freedom (30-1 ML): Despite a Derby trail win and a very good 3rd in the G2 Risen Star, Catching Freedom has flown under the radar as Brad Cox’s second fiddle behind Timberlake. The son of Constitution has been a figure darling, is battle tested, and owns a win over future G3 Southwest S. winner, Mystik Dan. Will be another intriguing prospect in the G2 Louisiana Derby next week. Catching Freedom is 9th in the ITM Derby Top 10.

#5 – Common Defense (30-1 ML): This colt took a very strong step when running 2nd in the G2 Rebel at Oaklawn. He was given a stellar ride by Brian Hernandez Jr. that day, saving every inch of ground before presenting a good run to only be beaten by Timberlake. While it was an impressive performance, it is also fair to critique the horses who finished behind him, and the rest of his resume leaves something to be desired. He’ll get a chance to prove himself next out in the, you guessed it, Louisiana Derby.

#6 – Conquest Warrior (25-1 ML): Shug McGaughey took the conservative route with this million dollar colt, winning a first level allowance by 5 cozy lengths instead of running the G2 Fountain of Youth. He will now tackle the big dogs in the G1 Florida Derby, where he will face a very salty bunch. A win there makes him one of the favorites for the Derby, meaning this pool may be the time to strike. He currently sits 8th in the ITM Kentucky Derby Top 10.

#7 – Corporate Power (50-1 ML): Yet another Shug McGaughey protege who is also owned by Courtlandt Farms. This son of Curlin and out of Road to Victory (one of only two horses to ever finish a race in front of Monomoy Girl), he has been little mentioned on the Derby trail in part due to his stablemates success. He also only recently broke his maiden, and Shug is not the type to rush a young colt’s development just to be in the Derby starting gate. Don’t expect anything different here.

#8 – Deterministic (20-1 ML): Buy low. That is the theme of the Future Wager and I made sure everyone and their mother knew to do so with Deterministic over the past few future wagers. He was thrown around as an ITM Derby Top 10 candidate before even being publicly mentioned for the G3 Gotham, which he then went on to win in very impressive fashion, and now he sits at 4th on our list. His next start is to be determined. My one concern would be if he went straight to the Derby, which is apparently not out of the question, as that little seasoning has never been a positive in the Kentucky Derby.

#9 – Domestic Product (30-1 ML): Domestic Product’s stock rose slightly with a big win in the G3 Tampa Bay Derby. It was a fascinating race beyond the tote malfunctions, as a dawdling pace and boxed in trip could’ve spelt disaster for this Chad Brown trainee. He fought on well, however, to get the bob and secure himself a Derby starting gate spot. That validated a strong 2nd behind Hades in the G3 Holy Bull and he should keep improving once he gets to go 9 and 10 furlongs.

#10 – Dornoch (12-1 ML): What to do, what to do? Clearly brilliant and clearly hard-headed, Dornoch won a depleted G2 Fountain of Youth without much resistance. While it was a strong win, it did not improve his stock, yet you can’t knock the fact he has talent and likes to win. He still sits at the top of the ITM Kentucky Derby Top 10, but it is by a razor thin margin and is easy to critique. It’s also fair to acknowledge that 12-1 would be a very kind price at this stage in the game should he win his final Derby prep.

#11 – El Grande O (90-1 ML): The iron horse of this crop, El Grande O was a very good 3rd in the G3 Gotham last time out. He continues to deliver while coming up a touch short with each start. He is sure to fire well in the Wood Memorial next time out, but he still needs a wow performance to warrant any attention here.

#12 – Encino (50-1 ML): The first of three horses in a row targeting the G3 Jeff Ruby Steaks, Encino took the local prep last time out when winning the John Battaglia Memorial. It was another steady step forward for this son of Nyquist and he will be one of the top choices when he runs next weekend. The Turfway path to the Derby has been bountiful the last two years. While improvement is necessary with Encino to be a Derby player, he at least present rooms for growth and upside a month and a half from the big one.

#13 – Endlessly (50-1 ML): Endlessly would make an interesting Derby prospect as he would enter the race with no previous dirt experience. He will be one of the market leaders for the Jeff Ruby next week and is already proven over synthetic surfaces. The problem is, there is a chance this one wouldn’t move on to the Derby with a good run because trainer Michael McCarthy has been quoted saying he doesn’t believe this horse is as capable on dirt as he is other surfaces.

#14 – Epic Ride (80-1 ML): Another Turfway based runner, Epic Ride exits a second in the John Battaglia. Beaten as the even money choice that day, he ran a credible race but once again showed greenness that was evident in his first three starts. He’ll need to overcome those issues before he can be a viable play in any race, let alone a Derby future wager.

#15 – Fierceness (12-1 ML): The champion juvenile closed Pool #4 at his highest future wager odds to date at 16-1. He has become somewhat of a forgotten man recent weeks while others have emerged and he’s waited for an impending start in the G1 Florida Derby. I made this same case back in the Pool #4 Preview, however: Even if you don’t love Fierceness, there is no denying the value you get here will be much kinder than his price on Derby day should he win his final prep.

#16 – Forever Young (JPN) (20-1 ML): The hope of Japan heading towards Derby 150, since we last spoke Forever Young scraped out a win in the G3 Saudi Derby. As I said last time, don’t be surprised if that wasn’t his A+ race as he needs much further ground. He’ll get that in the UAE Derby next time out where he will be a force to be reckoned with. This is your last chance to hope on the bandwagon before it reaches full speed.

#17 – Hades (30-1 ML): The Holy Bull winner has still been idle since Pool #4. We did learn more about who he will likely face when he runs next in the G1 Florida Derby, as Dornoch is a possibility off his win in the Fountain of Youth, but it doesn’t seem like the waters will be much tougher for Hades. As a Derby prospect, it still remains to be seen how good he can be.

#18 – Hall of Fame (80-1 ML): This son of Gun Runner closed Pool #4 at 33-1 before running 7th, beaten 9 lengths, in the G2 Risen Star. The good news is you will get double-to-triple the price on him in this pool. The bad news is you learned a lot more in that no-excuse loss than you did in his 10 length maiden win. Pass.

#19 – Honor Marie (40-1 ML): The Kentucky Jockey Club winner will get one more shot at Derby points in the Louisiana Derby next week. As our ITM Plus subscribers learned from Frank McGoey, this colt was far from ready for his last start, so it was very encouraging that he finished up as well as he did that day. He will not only be a sharp play second up in 2024 in the Louisiana Derby, but an enticing play in this pool if you believe that progression is coming.

#20 – Just a Touch (30-1 ML): Slightly lost in the Deterministic chatter from the Gotham was the stellar second-out performance from Just a Touch. He fought gamely to only be beaten two lengths while sitting much closer to a tense pace than the eventual winner. While he’s probably not experienced enough to be a Derby player, he will be an interesting look wherever he preps next. I’d be more inclined to wait for the final Future pool here.

#21 – Just Steel (80-1 ML): I’ve stated multiple times that I don’t know if Just Steel is a true two-turn runner, but you can at least toss his Rebel run entirely leading into his next start. No one lost more ground nor lost more position than Just Steel, as his outer draw compromised him from the get go and he could never get comfortable. A better post come Arkansas Derby day makes him a very legitimate contender in that spot. Still, I don’t love him beyond that.

#22 – Lat Long (80-1 ML): He was beaten 4 1/2 lengths when 3rd in the G3 Lecomte in what has been a mixed bag of production since. He now gets thrown into the deep end in the G1 Blue Grass next out against Sierra Leone. I’ll let you make your own opinions from there.

#23 – Le Dom Bro (80-1 ML): This Florida based colt has now posted back-to-back graded stakes placings at Gulfstream at huge prices. He was less than two lengths off Dornoch in the G2 Fountain of Youth, but you also have to consider he sat the perfect pressing trip behind a nonexistent early pace. Plenty to still prove and value will still exist even if he runs well in the G1 Florida Derby.

#24 – Liberal Arts (40-1 ML): Liberal Arts has consistently remained an intriguing price to play in these pools. Growth is needed to be in the upper echelon, but he is well proven around two turns and still looks an intriguing contender for the G1 Arkansas Derby, where he will likely be one of the favorites now. Should he deliver there, he will be probably be in the 20 to 30-1 range in the final Future Pool and in the high teens on Derby day. Buy low.

#25 – Mystik Dan (20-1 ML): The aforementioned Liberal Arts finds his chief Arkansas Derby rival in the form of Mystik Dan, winner of the G3 Southwest Stakes. Skepticism remains due to the fact he rode a golden rail on an off track, and outside of that win his resume is lacking. He’ll have the chance to prove doubters wrong next out, but for now the 21-1 from Pool #4 and the 20-1 ML here are the biggest underlays out there.

#26 – Nash (50-1 ML): I didn’t get it a month ago, I don’t get it now. I’m normally very fair and objective with these. There is no case to be made here.

#27 – No More Time (50-1 ML): Seemingly the first horse of the season to plant his feet firmly in the Derby starting gate, No More Time is scheduled to go straight to the Kentucky Derby off a narrow loss in the G3 Tampa Bay Derby. The dominant wire-to-wire winner of the G3 Sam F. Davis got things all his own way in the Tampa Bay Derby, but was unable to hold off the oncoming Domestic Product. These big of layoffs between final preps and the Derby rarely pay off and No More Time is not quite fast enough on figures.

#28 – Resilience (50-1 ML): Resilience ran a very credible race when a close 4th in the G2 Risen Star. It was a big step up from a maiden win but he handled himself well in behind the stakes proven trio of Sierra Leone, Track Phantom, and Catching Freedom. I’d expect another step forward when he runs in the G2 Louisiana Derby next. I’d also take a similar approach to that of Just a Touch, where it will be easier to read him in Pool #5 while still expecting a reasonable price in return.

#29 – Seize the Grey (90-1 ML): D. Wayne Lukas’s other Derby prospect at this stage, this son of Arrogate won a first level allowance on Rebel Day at Oaklawn. It was a sharp effort that garnered career figures while overcoming a 4 month layoff, but now he will have to reintroduce himself to the graded stakes scene while only getting one shot at Derby points. That will come in either the Arkansas Derby or the Blue Grass. Another you’re probably safer waiting on.

#30 – Sierra Leone (5-1 ML): The clear cut individual favorite in this Pool and likely has a chance to close at shorter odds than “All Others”. Sierra Leone brilliantly took the G2 Risen Star in his most recent start and now turns his attention to the G1 Blue Grass at Keeneland. He remains one of the two top Derby prospects (2nd in the ITM Derby Top 10) in this crop. The price you get here doesn’t seem like it would be much different than the one you’d get in Pool #5 or on Derby day.

#31 – Stronghold (80-1 ML): The last time we spoke on Stronghold came when Pool #4 closed just a few minutes before his start in the G3 Sunland Derby. He closed that day at 99-1 and then took care of business in New Mexico, winning that 20 point prep comfortably. He is probably the toughest read in this pool. There is little argument that he’s the best non-Baffert three-year-old out West, but how much merit does that hold? And how does that stack him up against the rest of the country? It remains to be seen where he will make his last prep, but hopefully it can answer some of the questions we have.

#32 – The Wine Steward (60-1 ML): Still MIA since his close 2nd to Locked in the G1 Breeders’ Futurity, The Wine Steward has been steadily working over the past two months. It is unclear if he is being pointed towards a 100 point Derby prep, and if he is it is going to be tough to come off a hefty layoff into a spot that is guaranteed to be tough. A nice colt for the summer, probably not now.

#33 – Timberlake (8-1 ML): He made short work of the G2 Rebel field last time out while also rating very kindly in a pack of horses. That step forward is exactly what was expected and is why he sits 3rd in the ITM Derby Top 10. He will continue to progress with added distance. It will be interesting to see where he runs next, as the G1 Blue Grass seems the most likely spot, meaning he will square off with Sierra Leone before the big dance.

#34 – Time for Truth (90-1 ML): After drawing the far outside in the G2 Rebel, connections opted to wait for a first level allowance the next weekend at Oaklawn. It paid dividends, as he won well enough in his first two-turn start, but it also left me thinking he may not love the 9 furlong test awaiting him in the G1 Arkansas Derby. Needs to do more to be worth a play.

#35 – Top Conor (90-1 ML): JK mentioned this Chad Brown protege as a horse to watch off his impressive maiden win at Gulfstream. The word is that this colt has always been well regarded by the barn and a few setbacks left him debuting a little later than expected. While the Apollo Curse has been broken and we’ve had another non-juvenile starting Derby winner since (Mage), it is still a fair rule that looking towards lightly seasoned colts like this is a risky proposition on the Derby trail. The plan is to throw this colt to the wolves in the G1 Florida Derby next out. If you believe the hype, buy in now.

#36 – Track Phantom (25-1 ML): This Steve Asmussen trainee has flown well below the radar even though he ran a very game 2nd to Sierra Leone in the G2 Risen Star and won back-to-back stakes before that. His success in the G2 Louisiana Derby next time out entirely hinges on the type of trip he can receive, but if he puts forward yet another good run he has to be considered a reasonable type leading towards the Kentucky Derby. However, if he does lose there, you will likely receive a similar price in the Derby as you will in both this pool and the next.

#37 – Tuscan Gold (80-1 ML): Well bred and a sharp winner on seasonal debut at Gulfstream, Tuscan Gold will bring some strong qualities forth into the G2 Louisiana Derby (Side Note: Is the entire pool running in the Louisiana Derby? Is anyone else running in any other final prep?). He clearly wants all the ground he can be given and will get that in the 9.5 furlong affair in New Orleans. My big concern would be making the step necessary to hang in what will be a very contentious race where Derby points will be a premium. A solid colt who will have to prove himself in a brutal spot.

#38 – Tuscan Sky (30-1 ML): This striking gray took his record to 2-for-2 when beating a depleted allowance field last time out at Fair Grounds. While he may not have beaten anything, he was visually very sharp, and warrants a close look in his Derby prep. However, that may come in the Louisiana Derby, in which the same logic for Tuscan Gold applies to him. He’s another that I’d much rather wait on the next pool or race day to get involved with.

#39 – Uncle Heavy (80-1 ML): G3 Withers winner Uncle Heavy is scheduled to make his next start in the G2 Wood Memorial, which looks to be a tough assignment given the strength of the G3 Gotham. If Deterministic and/or Just a Touch show up, there is no doubt he will be playing far second fiddle to those runners. A spot in the Derby starting gate is still on the table, but he has much to prove over the next month.

#40 – All Other Three Year Olds (15-1 ML): I gave my spiel on this offering in the last pool, and the point only rings further true this time round.

Three to Consider

If you’ve been regularly watching or playing this season’s Future Wager pools, you know that at this point the only reasonable plays are those who you expect to take big steps forward in the 100 Point Preps. This not only means improving from both a visual and figure standpoint, but also running in a spot where they can accumulate enough points to make the Derby starting gate. Deterministic is 20-1 on the morning line for this pool, and if that is accurate is worth a look. Should he win his final prep he likely won’t go off any higher than 12 to 15-1 on Derby day, so you would certainly maximize your value here. Track Phantom, while scheduled to prep in the tough G2 Louisiana Derby, has already proven himself as a stakes winner and against Derby quality company. I’m not certain he’s a Derby winner, but he presents a solid price at this juncture given his resume. Liberal Arts is probably the horse who can reasonably take that biggest step forward while also closing Pool #4 at a great price. He should improve leaps and bounds into an Arkansas Derby that will be anyone’s for the taking if Timberlake doesn’t show up. A win there would put him between 15 and 20-1 on Derby day, and you could get him at 40 to 50-1 in Pool #4 instead.

Three to Fade

There are some very talented colts in here who all fit the same mold: tons of ability, lightly seasoned, and being thrown to the wolves for one last gasp shot at Derby points. Top Conor, Tuscan Gold, and Tuscan Sky all could very well win in their respective Derby preps. However, those types of horses who make dramatic leaps from the overnight ranks to one final, successful Derby prep, tend to get swallowed up in the 20-horse slugfest that is the Kentucky Derby.

Oaks Future Wager Thoughts

The first Kentucky Oaks Future Wager pool coincides with Derby Future Wager Pool #5 this weekend. Just like the Derby pool, there are 39 individual interests and one “All Others” involved. The Oaks trail has proven inconsistent this season, with the majority of eligible fillies (cough, Kinza, cough) trading blows on the major circuits. Champion 2-Year-Old Filly, Just F Y I, missed an intended start in the G2 Davona Dale a few weeks ago and will now have to play catch up with only one prep this season for the Oaks.

The three fillies I like best on this Oaks trail are Jody’s Pride (15-1 ML), Intricate (20-1 ML), and Tarifa (8-1 ML). Even when winning off-the-turf sprints as a 2-year-old, Jody’s Pride seemed to be like she breathed different air from her competition. Her huge second in the G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies proved that given the circumstances at hand, and her comeback win in the Busher at Aqueduct showed she is doing just as well in 2024. She should be well-primed for another win in the G3 Gazelle a few weeks from now. Intricate always looked liked she’d be best around two turns and displayed that tenfold in her last two outs in 2023. She had too much work to do in her seasonal reappearance, the G2 Rachel Alexandra at Fair Grounds, and will be much improved from the run next time out. Tarifa beat Intricate that day and has seemingly worked out the kinks that she showed in her second and third career starts. She broke her maiden stylishly at Keeneland and then suffered a perplexing defeat next out. She then won her two-turn debut, a first level allowance at Fair Grounds, but it was a noticeable regression from her first career win. Tarifa was all business last time out, however, and looks ready to give Brad Cox another Oaks winner if she stays right.