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Race 1: 1 – 5 – 4
The opener is not an easy race to handicap, which is a theme on this very competitive card. #1 Mahoney Road (5-2) might just sit the perfect off of the two speeds (#3 and #5). I’ve talked many times on how deep the Oaklawn circuit was this year, and I like horses coming from Arkansas….Mahoney Road suits just fine and might grind them down late.
Race 2: 5 – 2 – 4
Early Pick 4 Ticket: 2,5 / 1,4,5,6 / 2,3,5 / 1,3,5,6,8 ($60)
Like the horse, hate the price on #5 West Island (8-5) for Rivelli. I don’t think he lays over the field, yet he is the most likely winner who might shake loose early. He was involved in a fast pace last time off the layoff at 6-5, could not clear, and finished a distant second. Today, Cohen will gun to the lead again and hope to hang on. If he outbreaks the #2 Charlie Lightening, West Island might be gone.
Race 3: 6 – 4 – 1
I’m expecting a possible pace meltdown here. So I need to look for the best closer, and I believe that’s the #6 Rocket Hotshot (7-2). The 6yo won last time, and the one negative is many of these types of horses don’t repeat in the winner’s circle. BUT…Giles figures to get a great trip, and has numbers that fit very well. He’ll need the right setup and trip, but if the speed develops, look for Rocket to do just that in the lane.
Race 4: 5 – 3 – 2
High-class allowance horses dot the landscape in this race with some very talented ones battling for the $34k purse. I’m taking a stab with #5 Faithful Ruler (6-1). I know he was beat fair and square by Shackleford Strong and Cortese on Ill. Derby Day, but there’s a chance “Ruler” could get loose in this spot, and he’s drawn advantageously on the outside of his main competition. Maybe he’s not as good as he was earlier in the year, but I’m hoping Gallardo sends aggressively and tries to “bottom out” the field.
Race 5: 8 – 6 – 5
Late Pick 4 Ticket: 1,3,5,6,8 / 4,5,8 / 1,3,4,10 / 4 ($30)
This is a strange race. There’s plenty of early speed, so one would think I’d be looking for a closer. The problem is I don’t see any quality horses who like to finish late. So, I’ll take the speed of the speed with the outside horse, the #8 Cookin Roses (6-1). If she clears from the outside or simply breaks well, she’ll be tough to handle. Consistent, honest, and in great form…look for her to be cookin’ early….big-time spread race to open Late Pick 4.
Race 6: 4 – 5 – 8
Many are facing each other again…somewhat of a repeat of the 4/20 race. Then, #1 Palhaco and #2 Minnesota Ready battled themselves into submission. I think they won’t be as aggressive today, which might set it up for the #4 Hawaiian Hide Away (7-2), who was one of the lower prices that day. He broke a bit slow, was used on the inside, and made a minor move in the stretch. I think he’s better than his last and might offer value today. #5 Izeondec is the ML-fave and vulnerable as he’s 1/26 lifetime even though perhaps the most logical.
Race 7: 10 – 3 – 1
Will this be the first turf race of the season? Mother Nature did not cooperate last weekend, but based on the forecast as of this writing, looks like we’ll be on the grass today! There are some very interesting first-time starters here, but I’ll go with the confirmed speed from the outside for Rivelli, #10 Ravin’s Town (7-2). There’s turf breeding on the dam side, and his early speed should play very well. He’s worked well since his disappointing 2nd place finish a few weeks back, and expect Cohen to send hard and clear from the outside. Don’t sleep on #3 Red Rizzler, my Longshot Play of the Day. He broke slow in his debut at Oaklawn and was a non-factor, but he’s worked well since and is a half-brother to talented sprint turf stakes horse Bad Beat Brian ($745k-earner).
Race 8: 4 – 1 – 3
Hoping the holidays come early in the last with #4 Christmas Present (5-1). There’s much early gas in the two-turn affair, and I’m looking for someone to come from off the pace. I don’t love the 3-39 lifetime record, but I do like the jockey upgrade to Julio Felix and believe an improved effort is coming…how much better does he really have to be to win today? It’s hard to trust the speed in the finale.
