I’ll have write-ups for the Pegasus itself and the Pegasus Turf over at atheraces.com and I’ll make sure to include links to those here and on a landing page as the races draw nearer. In this space, let’s take a horse-by-horse look at the Pegasus Filly and Mare. It’s a really fun, competitive race.
#1 RAQIYA impressed in her stateside debut. It was an easy trip alone on the lead, but it came back strong on the clock and three of the four to run back have improved their numbers, with old pal Sacred Wish having gone on to win a Grade 1 subsequently. Raqiya looks potentially loose once again and should be a major player under Dettori once again.
#2 POUNCE is a multiple Grade 3 winner who is versatile in terms of her running style. She’s done her best work closing in races that have been falling apart late – not a scenario I am anticipating here. She looks a little slower than the best of these.
#3 BE YOUR BEST looks for the three-peat as she steps up in class from G3 to G2 level. Saffie Joseph really seems to have figured her out since taking over control of her career and it’s impressive that she’s been able to win at both a mile and 11 furlongs. She’s going to take money in here and I am not entirely convinced she’ll be up to the task simply because her last two trips were pretty easy, commanding the pace on the front, and there’s a lot more speed signed on.
#4 WATCHTOWER had a tricky trip in the American Oaks but always looked a little outclassed against that bunch and it was unclear if she wanted to go that far. Her best race came with a perfect setup at Grade 3 level. California invader has plenty to find.
#5 FLUFFY SOCKS is a touch old girl with a fun name. She has a couple of efforts that would make her go close here (a closing run with a setup in the ’23 Matriarch and a win on soft turf against an overmatched field in the ’24 Gallorette), but both came under very different circumstances. You can probably excuse the last two – against the flow versus Raqiya in the Goldikova and overmatched at G1 level in the First Lady. Can’t blame those who want to keep her and her all-world trainer on side as the presumptive best closer, but she’s more of a peripheral contender for me (6-1 type and that’s probably just the price). A “use” for horizontals though.
#6 DONA CLOTA brings Chilean form to the party, having just rattled off three wins including a pair of Grade 1s in her native land. Those races came going 10 furlongs and her last two mile runs were somewhere between not great and barely good. Could this be a prep for longer? In any case, I am just watching this one.
#7 MINOUSHKA had some OK form from France before landing on these shores last fall. Both her US starts have been better than they looked as she was closing into slow paces with trouble in both instances. Could she be the kind of filly that makes her own trouble and is overly pace dependent? Yes, for sure. And it doesn’t look like there’s a ton of pace signed on to set her up here. Having said that, there are enough positives on her that aren’t reflected by the form and figures that I am very much tempted to keep her onside at double-digit odds. A value B-type for me.
#8 PAPILIO was in behind Be Your Best in the Suwanee River last time in the local prep for this but she had really trouble there, stymied for run at a key stage. That was a buried good race for this Grade 2 winner/Grade 1 placed type. It’s been a long time since she won at graded level, but she’s another who has some appeal if the right price (double-digits for me). She’s the one I want most out of the Suwanee River.
#9 OCEAN CLUB comes from that same Suwanee River form line. I thought she had a good trip there overall and just looked a little one paced late. She has license to improve second off the layoff and her tactical speed means she should get a good trip. Perhaps she can go a bit better stalking a faster pace. Could get lost in the betting (15-1 on the ML isn’t bad at all).
#10 SACRED WISH finally got her Grade 1 win in the Matrirach last time and she’s just a neck from being a Grade 1 winner on turf and dirt. She’s a very cool mare in career form. She has a couple of lengths to find with Raqiya and this is a tricky post where she could end up chasing wide. She’s a contender for sure on her class and will be on plenty of tickets.
#11 BLESS MY STARS had a brutal trip in the Suwanee River and seems likely to have another tough go of things from this outpost. South African form looks strong enough to be considered seriously for a spot like this but there are too many unknowns and obstacles for me to get excited about her chances at this stage.
#12 SEE YOU AROUND looks a potentially pace player given where she’s drawn (no choice but to go I’d think) and her solid early pace figures. The French form doesn’t wow you but you could point to her being beaten less than two in the G1 French 1000 Guineas as something positive. She was able to overcome a slow pace to win the Tropical Park Oaks under a canny ride from Irad, who departs for the South African mare. Oisin will have his work cut out for him but she might be able to trip out if she can get in front of every horse but Raqiya and attack from there. Another I wouldn’t mind having on some tickets as a backup.
#13 IN OUR TIME made an easy lead in the Tropical Park Oaks and was still run down by See You Around. I’m not seeing why she’ll reverse that form should she draw in from the AE list. The trip is also likely an issue. She feels certain to end up stuck wide and may have trouble classing up anyway.
#14 DE REGRESO is also stuck on the AEs. She’s struggled at graded level in the past and this post does her no favors as she tries to move up the ladder once again. Multiple listed stakes placed filly has some upside but likely won’t get to show it in this spot.
VERDICT: #1 RAQIYA looks like the right one as a backable favorite in terms of a selection. She made out well at the draw and I think Dettori will get the most out of her. There are some interesting prices you can use with her in verticals and as backups in horizontals.
I’m going to list a bunch of runners, and how you play them should be dictated by opinions elsewhere. Check back on the site for the Pegasus Day landing page as race day approaches. I’ll have more wagering specific thoughts.
A+ 1
A: 5-10
B: 7-8-9-12
