Unsurprisingly, I found this year’s Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies to be an intriguing race as a fan and a bettor. The American contingent has yet to sort themselves out and the two-year-old champ title will be decided by the winner of this race. They’ll square off against a formidable duo of Japanese runners that absolutely should not be overlooked. It should be a fairly run race as it appears the pace will be honest enough and the field isn’t overflowing so traffic isn’t likely to be an issue. Furthermore, I’d be surprised if we have an overwhelming favorite in this year’s edition, so you should get a fair price no matter who you like!! Special shout-out to Alex Henry for her expertise on the Japanese runners as I would be clueless about those horses without her help! Let’s meet the field.
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#1 Vodka With a Twist (20-1)
I’ve seen worse longshots then Vodka With a Twist, though the rail draw really only leaves her with one option which is full send to the front. Her resume as a whole really isn’t impossible in this spot as I thought she had back-to-back suboptimal trips at Del Mar. Two back she broke well, but was wrestled back off the pace behind a loose leader that was a giant favorite. Yet, she tried hard all the way to the wire and wasn’t disgraced to finish second, beaten a little more than a length. Then last time she stalked a hot pace, made the first move into the hot pace, looked dead in the water at the eighth pole, and fought back all the way to the finish to lose by a nose. Solid effort, and I love that they’ve given her plenty of time to prepare for this big race.
The downside is she really hasn’t progressed at all on speed figures and she’s more exposed than most in this field. I question the quality of competition she’s been going up against, especially after Tenma came back to be well-beaten in the Chandelier stakes by a couple of today’s rivals that won’t even be favored here. She also must prove she can go two turns as she’s definitely a question mark over a route of ground. There are some things to like, but she’s more of a use underneath.
#2 Snowyte (15-1)
This Good Magic filly will be one of the bigger prices in this race based on her first couple of starts. She ran pretty well in her debut at Saratoga when she finished a strong second between today’s rivals Quickick and Scottish Lassie. I would upgrade that race further since Danny Gargan was ice cold that entire meet, and Snowyte ran well despite that. And while she was on the lead in her debut, I like that she showed a new dimension in start number two, when she came from well off the pace to finish second in the Frizette. I also like that she’s paired up Beyer tops and the pedigree strongly indicates she should appreciate two turns. The bad news is she was well-beaten by today’s rival Scottish Lassie in that race, and it was not a very strong edition of the Frizette. She also needs to get much faster to be competitive, she needs to improve by at least 15 points to get in the mix and perhaps even a few points more than that. I find that scenario unlikely, and won’t be using her on my tickets.
#3 Immersive (3-1)
With Scottish Lassie drawn way on the outside, I think there’s a good chance this ends up being your favorite at post time. Immersive really hasn’t done anything wrong in any of her three starts. She’s an undefeated, multiple Grade 1 winner with victories at both Saratoga and Keeneland. While she’s not super flashy, you simply can’t knock her for beating whoever shows up and getting the job done every time. And while I would argue that she’s been fortunate to have consecutive soft trips in her victories, she also deserves credit for having the tactical speed to put herself in those situations, an asset that should prove quite useful on Friday. Finally, Brad Cox is operating on another planet right now in stakes races and you have to respect everything that comes out of his barn.
With all that being said, I feel like I can poke holes in her resume. I’ve been on the record since this summer saying that I felt the two year old filly crop at Saratoga this year was very weak(outside of Senza Parole who is not running). It’s quite possible she was simply the best of a bad bunch, and that bunch followed her to Kentucky when she beat New York based rivals in the Alcibiades. Sticking with that Keeneland race, she could not have had a softer trip in that race. It was a speed biased race track and she got a perfect stalking trip in the clear behind two dueling longshots. I personally felt like that’s a race she’s supposed to win by open lengths, yet she had to grind away to the wire for the victory. I also don’t like that she really doesn’t have any speed figure edge over the American rivals and I could argue she’s much slower than the Japanese horse. As a horse that is likely to be your favorite, that’s a huge concern for me and would compel me to look elsewhere to find the winner.
#4 La Cara (12-1)
La Cara is the horse that is most puzzling to me in this race. If you look strictly at Timeform figures, she actually owns the fastest race in the field (American), which came two back at Saratoga when she ran them off their feet going seven furlongs (beating Quickick handily). But then she came back down to Earth at Churchill Downs when she won a stakes race, but regressed 15 points and Beyer agrees with that regression. Maybe she’s just a better horse on the lead, since that’s where her fastest races have come from, but I do want to give her credit for showing that new dimension at Churchill and still getting the job done. I would think they will try to get her back to the front end in today’s race, but I have a tough time envisioning her clearing this field. There are some things to like, but she’s not for me.
#5 Quickick (10-1)
I think Quickick is an intriguing runner at what should be a generous price. She’s really done nothing wrong in her three starts and isn’t too far behind the top choices on speed figures. She got a useful race in her debut when she closed from way out of it to finish a respectable third behind La Cara. She then returned in another maiden race at Saratoga and was much more tactical when she came from midpack and won going away while defeating a few of today’s rivals.Then last time at Keeneland, she ran against a speed biased track and did really well to get within a couple of lengths of today’s rival Immersive. The negative from that race is that she had every opportunity to go by Immersive in the stretch, and she wasn’t able to do it. She also never had traffic at any point in the race, which is more of a credit to Dylan Davis, but can she be as effective in this bigger field if she’s not in the clear throughout? That’s what we’re going to find out on Friday! Is she one of the more likely winners of this race? No definitely not, but I do think 10-1 is a fair price since this pace has the potential to really heat up for her.
#6 Otomena Sacho (20-1)
The “other” Japanese filly might just be the longest shot on the board at post time. She was beaten seven lengths in Japan by American Bikini and that runner isn’t expected to be one of the two favorites so it’s difficult to envision Otomena Sacho being any shorter than 20-1. She’s only raced up to six furlongs in her career so she must deal with added ground (pedigree suggests it should be fine) and she won’t make the lead in this race and that’s how she achieved her only victory when she was 1/9. I do like that she’s won around a left-handed course and while she hasn’t won coming from off the pace, she did hit the board in both of those races. Again it might not be a perfect translation, but her speed figures actually give her a decent look against the Americans. The problem is she must deal with the fellow-invader and that seems a tall order. Her best hope is probably finding herself near the back-of-the-pack down the backside and that the race falls apart.
#7 Non Compliant (9/2)
I’m a biased when it comes to #7 Non Compliant because I’ve been looking forward to her running since before her debut. She worked in company with BC Juvenile contender Gaming before her first race and arguably looked better than that foe. That was enough for me to back her and I’ve been rewarded in both of her first two races that she’s won rather comfortably. She won her debut against a decent field, and I like that she did it from well off the pace-a rare occurrence in a Baffert debut victory. But then she came right back in the Oak Leaf and did the same thing, this time winning despite a loose leader and a very wide trip. I love that she has basically paired up Beyer tops, indicating she could move forward in a big way instart number three, and those figures she’s already earned put her right in the hunt against this group. She has the advantage of a victory over this racetrack and she’s already proven around two turns. She also has the benefit of a stablemate that is probably just a rabbit that is entered to ensure this gal gets some pace to run at. There are plenty of things to like about her in this race, and I’d definitely be interested if this morning line holds up.
#8 Nooni (15-1)
Nooni was sensational in her first couple of races, winning by open lengths with rock solid speed figures. However, she’s struggled to progress as the distances have gotten longer and the competition has gotten stronger. Two back she was off the board in the Del Mar Debutante after dueling between rivals and setting a suicidal pace in that race. I can be forgiving of that effort, but last time she really had no excuse in the Oak Leaf where she cruised on the front end and was still run down by the stablemate. She must find a way to turn the tables and that rival and she’ll have to do it while facing much more pace pressure. While I don’t think she can win, she will have an integral part in ensuring an honest pace for her stablemate, and I’m not going to be surprised when she has a big 2025 campaign around one turn.
#9 American Bikini (5-1)
This Japanese invader is a serious threat to win this thing. It’s not exactly apples to apples converting Japanese figures to the American Beyer scale, BUT she does have two figures that are faster than anything the rest of this field has done up to this point. I’m more willing to trust that information since she’s done it twice, it’s less likely to be an outlier. So right away I believe this filly is worthy of a long look as the “fastest” horse in the race. She’s also picked the right year to make the trip, as the American contingent doesn’t seem like it’s particularly strong and she’s already defeated the other Japanese horse in the field by open lengths.
She’s already won at seven furlongs and the pedigree indicates she might actually appreciate more ground. I also like that she’s already won going left-handed as I’ve always thought that can be a concern for foreign horses coming to America. This filly is quick out of the gate and usually finds herself right on the pace, which could be the biggest downside to this runner. There’s a couple of others in this field that I’m expecting to be fully committed to making the lead so she must prove she can stalk the pace and still finish. I was writing this before the post positions were drawn and I noted that an outside draw would probably be ideal for this horse since it could make it easier for her to rate if necessary. That’s especially true since she’s a big filly that could have trouble stopping and starting if she had to deal with traffic. I’m viewing her as a major win contender and is easily the value of the field if you can get 5-1.
#10 Scottish Lassie (5/2)
I was a bit surprised to see #10 Scottish Lassie (5/2) is your morning line favorite in this year’s Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies. But I can definitely see why she is a major contender in this spot. On the Beyer scale, she has the best speed figure in this race by a comfortable margin for her victory in the Frizette. And there were plenty of dirt races to solidify the figure she earned that day, the major question I have is can she repeat it? She had a VERY soft trip against a very weak group (maidens finished 1-2) and I usually try to beat horses that earn monster figures under ideal circumstances, especially when they’re a short price. She’s unlikely to get as easy of a journey in Friday’s race, though I do think this outside draw is ideal for her. She also must prove she can win around two turns, something most of the other major contenders have already done. If you’re a believer, she’s tactical enough to put herself into the race, and she’s still got plenty of upside since this is just her third career start. Trainer Jorge Abreu finds himself in a familiar spot as he brought Jody’s Pride to this race last year under very similar circumstances, and she ran a fine second at a price.
The Verdict: 9-7-5
I’m against the two favorites in this race and given the morning line odds, #9 American Bikini (5-1) would be my top pick in this race. I love the outside draw that’ll allow her to use her speed to either clear this field, or press the pace in the clear. And if the speed figures are correct, she has a massive edge in that department as well. 5-1 on a filly with the best figures and plenty of speed? Sign me up all day. I also could be interested in #7 Non Compliant (9/2). She seems about the same as the other two Americans that won their final preps, but figures to be a much better price. Finally, #5 Quickick is another that could provide value at a price. She definitely needs some help up front, but I’m expecting her to be running on through the lane.
