2026 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf: Narrative Past Performances, Picks & History

Line: David Aragona’s pre-entry odds (DRF, Oct. 22), set before the draw and before some horses withdrew. We’ll switch to the post-draw line as soon as it’s published.

ITM Staff Pick

Folsom Blues is our pick, and our numbers say he’s a bigger chance than the market thinks. He destroyed the National Stakes by six lengths, beating Florida Bay and Haffner, then ran second as the odds-on favorite in the Lagardère, still finishing ahead of Man’s Best Friend, Florida Bay and Avec Toi.

The mile and the wide draw are the questions from post 10. But Joseph O’Brien calls him ground-versatile, and Dylan Browne McMonagle, his rider all summer, is back aboard.

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Post 1 · T: Graham Motion · J: Junior Alvarado · Line 30/1

Ugly in the mornings, effective in the afternoons. Induction, a Pin Oak homebred by Scalding, won his debut going a mile on the Colonial Downs turf in August, rallying four wide to score by two lengths. Even Graham Motion admitted the win caught him a little off guard. The reason is how he trains. Motion says he "has an awkward way of going in the mornings, which can make him a little tough to ride," so don't read too much into the clock. He was pointed at Woodbine's Summer Stakes next, and he has been preparing for this at Fair Hill, where the Breeders' Cup notes had him working five furlongs in 1:02.60. Junior Alvarado rides from the rail, which is a good draw for a one-mile turf race at Keeneland. Motion's caution still applies: like any 2-year-old, he's still learning.

Post 2 · T: Christopher Head · J: Flavien Prat · Line 15/1

Forgive the Lagardère? Avec Toi arrived at the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardère unbeaten, with the Group 3 Prix Francis Boutin at Deauville and the Group 3 Prix la Rochette on his record. Christopher Head said beforehand, "It is all systems go." It wasn't. He finished sixth at ParisLongchamp, 5¼ lengths behind the filly Amusingly, with Folsom Blues, Man's Best Friend and Florida Bay all ahead of him. Before that, Head had described a colt who is simple to train and does everything without fuss, and who had been ridden with little urgency in his wins. He's a U.S.-bred son of No Nay Never trained in Chantilly, and he made his debut for Head and Coolmore. If the Lagardère was a bad day, his best French form puts him right in this. Flavien Prat picks up the ride from post 2.

Post 3 · T: Aidan O'Brien · J: Wayne Lordan · Line 30/1

The Ballydoyle pacesetter. Florida Bay made all to win the Group 3 Tyros at Leopardstown in July under Wayne Lordan, beating Folsom Blues by 1¼ lengths. Aidan O'Brien had blamed an overly fast pace for an earlier defeat at Naas, and after the Tyros he flagged this race straight away, noting the colt had plenty of pace. Since then he's kept running well at the top level without winning, finishing third in the National Stakes and fourth in the Lagardère, a short head behind stablemate Man's Best Friend. Folsom Blues has finished ahead of him in both of those races, so this is a rubber match. Our pace projection makes him the clear early leader, and a soft lead on the Keeneland turf could change everything. Lordan, his Tyros rider, is back aboard from post 3.

Post 4 · T: Aidan O'Brien · J: Christophe Soumillon · Line 6/1

The one Aidan has had in mind all along. Haffner is a Justify colt, and Aidan O'Brien has been talking about this race since August, when he won the Acomb at York. Afterward O'Brien called him "a typical Justify" who rarely relents in front, and said a Breeders' Cup mile would be no problem for him. Before that he'd been second, beaten a half-length, in the Vintage at Goodwood. He was unplaced in the National Stakes, where O'Brien said the soft Curragh ground was against him. He bounced back to win the Royal Lodge at Newmarket over a mile, and O'Brien was blunt about what comes next: "He would love the Breeders' Cup going around a bend." Quick ground at Keeneland should suit him. Christophe Soumillon rides from post 4.

Post 5 · T: Riley Mott · J: Brian Hernandez Jr. · Line 4/1

The Kentucky Downs money machine. How's Al Today is 3-for-4 with $681,584 in earnings, most of it from the $750,000 Kentucky Downs Juvenile Mile, which he won on Sept. 9, nine days after winning an allowance over the same course. Getting there took a change of plan. He won his debut on the Churchill dirt but ran a distant third in the Saratoga Special, then worked well on the grass, and Riley Mott switched surfaces. He runs for Al Gold's Gold Square, which also owns Preakness winner Napoleon Solo, and Chad Summers bought him for $200,000. Mott has kept him fresh since Kentucky Downs and says "he's training excellently." Agate, who ran third in that Juvenile Mile, is in here too. Brian Hernandez Jr., his Kentucky Downs rider, stays on from post 5.

Post 6 · T: Charlie Johnston · J: David Egan · Line 30/1

The Amo Racing project. Pikachu races for Kia Joorabchian's Amo Racing and trainer Charlie Johnston, and he improved with each of his first three starts. The best of those was a third in a Group 2 at Newmarket in July, 1¼ lengths behind Al Hudaiba. He met Al Hudaiba again in the Vintage Stakes at Goodwood, along with Haffner, but Dr Rascal won and Pikachu finished outside the first three. Joorabchian has been talking him up all season, rating him among Amo's best two-year-olds and adding in July that he'd probably need a mile in time. He gets the mile here. David Egan rides from post 6. He needs to take a big step forward against this group.

Post 7 · T: Whit Beckman · J: Edgard Zayas · Line 20/1

The dirt flop turned turf winner. Let Em Know, a son of Jackie's Warrior, showed little in his dirt debut. Whit Beckman was a bit let down by that race and moved him to grass, and it worked straight away. He broke his maiden by a head going 1 1/16 miles on the Saratoga turf in August. After a fifth in Woodbine's Summer Stakes, he won the Pilgrim at Belmont Park, beating Riley Mott's Roscoe Goose, with Todd Pletcher's High Official seventh. That earned his place here. "It seems like he definitely likes the turf," Beckman said, but he was also realistic: the colt will need to step up and put the whole package together. Edgard Zayas rides from post 7. He's a progressive colt, and he has already shown he can handle 1 1/16 miles on grass.

Post 8 · T: Todd Pletcher · J: Jose Ortiz · Line 30/1

Keeping it in the family. Todd Pletcher trained Liam's Law's sire, Colonel Liam, and his grandsire, Liam's Map, and owners Robert and Lawana Low raced Colonel Liam too. Pletcher joked that it makes him feel his age. The colt was a $120,000 OBS 2-year-old. His debut came off the turf, but Pletcher said the run "set him up nicely," and he went on to win on the Saratoga grass. Then he held off stablemate Bold Leadership in the With Anticipation. Pletcher said he dug in and found a bit extra, and Ricardo Santana Jr. said that when a rival reaches him, "he fights back." He was the first also-eligible for this race and drew in when Al Hudaiba came out. Jose Ortiz rides from post 8. The question is whether he can fight off the Europeans.

Post 9 · T: Hugo Palmer · J: Oisin Murphy · Line 50/1

The sprinter going a mile. Everything we've seen from Sale Shark has been at five furlongs. He was fourth in the Molecomb at Goodwood, then turned the tables on the favorite Adonius to win the Listed Roses Stakes at York by 1¼ lengths under Oisin Murphy. Hugo Palmer was thrilled and said the colt keeps maturing. At the time, Palmer's plan was the Flying Childers and then, if he ran into the first three, the Juvenile Turf Sprint. He finished sixth of 11 at Doncaster instead, and he lines up in the one-mile Juvenile Turf, a very different test. Palmer also trained his sister New Providence, who won a stakes at York. Murphy stays aboard from post 9. Stamina is the big unknown.

Post 10 · T: Joseph O'Brien · J: Dylan Browne McMonagle · Line 9/2

The National Stakes rout. Folsom Blues, an Al Shira'aa homebred by Blue Point, ran second to Ballydoyle horses twice in the summer: to Florida Bay in the Tyros and to the filly Sun Goddess in the Phoenix. Then, in the National Stakes at the Curragh, he turned the tables. He won by six lengths, with Florida Bay third and Haffner unplaced. In the Lagardère he was the odds-on favorite and ran second, 1¼ lengths behind the filly Amusingly, but he still finished ahead of Man's Best Friend, Florida Bay and Avec Toi. Joseph O'Brien calls him "a high-class colt" who handles any ground, and his jockey in the National said, "When he relaxes he's a fair jet." The mile is the question. Dylan Browne McMonagle, his rider through the summer, is back aboard from post 10.

Post 11 · T: Aidan O'Brien · J: Colin Keane · Line 20/1

Fast, classy, and learning to stay. Man's Best Friend won the Richmond at Goodwood in July after a tight trip. Ryan Moore said, "He would have been an unlucky loser, but luckily he got out just in time," and called him "a fast horse, with a beautiful pedigree." His latest run was his best. He was third in the Lagardère at ParisLongchamp, three lengths behind the filly Amusingly and a short head ahead of stablemate Florida Bay, and Aidan O'Brien rated it the best run of his career. The Lagardère was seven furlongs, and this is a mile, but O'Brien was already talking about him as a possible miler afterward. Colin Keane rides from post 11, and the extra furlong is the question. He's the most sprint-oriented of the four Ballydoyle colts.

Post 12 · T: Miguel Clement · J: William Buick · Line 15/1

The quiet one from Saratoga. Oscar won a 1 1/16-mile turf race at Saratoga in early August. He saved ground and then fought off a late challenge, and that kind of tough, ground-saving effort is often what a 14-horse turf mile requires. He was pointed at Woodbine's Summer Stakes next. He's one of three Miguel Clement runners on Friday's card, along with Citrus Springs in the Juvenile Fillies Turf and Brickyard Belle in the Juvenile Turf Sprint. His profile is one of the least publicized in the field. We couldn't find a word from his connections this week, so this is largely a leap of faith on his Saratoga form. William Buick rides from post 12. That's a wide draw for a one-mile turf race at Keeneland, so Buick will need to find cover early. He's the mystery horse of the race.

Post 13 · T: Kelsey Danner · J: Tyler Gaffalione · Line 10/1

The reformed bad boy. Dede McGehee bred Agate and his dam, and she's blunt about the colt's early days, admitting he behaved like a jackass. He was gelded about a month before his debut, which Kelsey Danner says he needed because his mind was elsewhere. He ran sixth first time out, then broke his maiden on the Ellis Park turf and finished third, after a troubled trip, behind How's Al Today in the Kentucky Downs Juvenile Mile. Then he won the Bourbon at Keeneland by 1¾ lengths despite more trouble. That race is a Win and You're In, and he won it over this course. Danner, who is based at Turfway Park, is saddling her third Breeders' Cup runner. Tyler Gaffalione, his Bourbon rider, stays on from post 13. McGehee calls the whole thing a surprise out of the blue.

Post 14 · T: Aidan O'Brien · J: Ryan Moore · Line 9/2

The Coventry winner with the lost summer. Great Barrier Reef won the Coventry at Royal Ascot in June, the kind of race Aidan O'Brien had in mind for him from his debut, when he pegged him as the type for the Coventry and the Dewhurst. Then the summer got away from him. Ringworm kept him out of the Phoenix, and when O'Brien tried to run him back, the colt got sick and scoped badly. He made it to the Dewhurst at Newmarket, and O'Brien had said that if he ran well there, Keeneland was next, because he could stay a mile. Here he is. He's also a colt who doesn't show his best at home: O'Brien said he's "obviously not a home worker" but shows a lot more at the races. Ryan Moore rides from the widest draw, post 14.