2026 Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint: Narrative Past Performances, Picks & History

ITM Staff Pick

Bacio is the local story, but our numbers make him an underlay, and Comanche Brave is the better bet. He’s a double Group 1 winner this year, taking the July Cup and the Flying Five, and Donnacha O’Brien says he’s “getting better the whole time.”

Quick ground is the key for him, so watch the weather. Billy Loughnane, aboard for both Group 1 wins, rides from post 7. Miss Yechance and Starlust, from the two widest posts, are the overlays to use underneath.

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Post 1 · T: Rob Atras · J: Kendrick Carmouche · ML 30/1

The late bloomer with the best name in the field. John the Beer Man broke his maiden at a route for Chad Brown in May 2024, then vanished for nearly two years. When he came back for Rob Atras this spring, he'd been turned into a sprinter. He won an allowance at the Fair Grounds, ran third, beaten three-quarters of a length, in the Grade 1 Jaipur, and then won the Grade 2 Troy at Saratoga by a head in August. Waralo, who crossed the line second, was disqualified to third. Kentucky Downs was a step back: seventh, beaten four lengths. Atras admits the race keeps "getting tougher with more speed," but our pace projection still makes the 5-year-old More Than Ready gelding the most likely early leader. Kendrick Carmouche, his Troy rider, breaks from the rail.

Post 2 · T: Jose D'Angelo · J: Luis Saez · ML 15/1

The defending champion, with no prep at all. Last year at Del Mar, Shisospicy became the first 3-year-old filly to win the Turf Sprint, in her first try against older horses and males. This year has been one setback after another. A spider-bite infection in January wiped out her plans for Saudi Arabia and Dubai. She ran last in the Unbridled Sidney on May 1, her only start of the year, and then got sick. In September a fever kept her out of the Floral Park. So Jose D'Angelo brings her back off six months away, and he's honest that tackling a race like this without a prep is no easy task. The encouraging sign came Oct. 15, when she breezed five furlongs in :59 2/5 at Keeneland and her speed was back on display. Luis Saez picks up the ride from post 2.

Post 3 · T: Wesley Ward · J: Juan Hernandez · ML 5/2

America's Nunthorpe hero comes home. Bacio went to Royal Ascot in June and won the Palace of Holyroodhouse Handicap. Then Wesley Ward passed up a $2 million race down the road at Kentucky Downs and instead threw him straight into the deep end with the Group 1 Nunthorpe at York. Bacio led from the gate and beat 17 rivals by 1¼ lengths, with 2024 Turf Sprint winner Starlust second. That made him 5-for-6 lifetime and got him a free ticket to this race. Ward won this race with Golden Pal in 2021, and Bacio barely has to travel: he trains at Keeneland, and Ward plans to "lead him over from his stall." After this, Ward has Australia in his sights. Juan Hernandez, who rode him at York, breaks from post 3.

Post 4 · T: Graham Motion · J: Manuel Franco · ML 30/1

The quick filly nobody is talking about. Roja's breakout came in June in the Grade 2 Intercontinental at Saratoga, where Irad Ortiz Jr. said she flew out of the gate. She led all the way at 5½ furlongs on the turf and won by 1¼ lengths, with stablemate Italian Soiree second. She followed up by a half-length in the Andy Guest at Colonial Downs on Arlington Million Day, and DRF noted in August that she was unbeaten in 2026. Ortiz was the one who first suggested the Breeders' Cup to Graham Motion after the Intercontinental, and Motion thought that was ambitious at the time. The 4-year-old Karakontie filly cost $70,000 at the 2023 Fasig-Tipton July sale and races for Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners and Madaket Stables. Her last work was a half-mile in :49.20. Manuel Franco rides from post 4.

Post 5 · T: Mark Casse · J: Oisin Murphy · ML 20/1

The course specialist. Time to Dazzle has won the Grade 2 Franklin over this course and distance two years running. In 2025 she won it by 3¼ lengths under Jose Ortiz, beating In Our Time, and she won it again on Oct. 11 under Irad Ortiz Jr. It's hard to ask for a better local prep. The catch is that same familiar rival. In Our Time, another daughter of Not This Time, turned the tables in the Grade 1 Ladies Turf Sprint at Kentucky Downs in August and beat her by 3½ lengths. Back in 2024, Mark Casse worried about her temperament, saying she wouldn't listen to her rider at all. Two Franklins later, she looks like she has figured things out. The 5-year-old mare races for Tracy Farmer, and Oisin Murphy rides from post 5.

Post 6 · T: Michael McCarthy · J: Flavien Prat · ML 8/1

The grinder. Yellow Card got his first graded win in the Grade 2 Twin Spires Turf Sprint at Churchill on May 2, beating Joe Shiesty by a neck in what Flavien Prat called a battle the whole way. The run before that is the one to remember this week. In the Shakertown at Keeneland, he was pinched between horses and had to steady, swung eight wide into the stretch, and still finished second to My Boy Prince. Michael McCarthy's summary: "he got banged around at the half-mile pole, and it wasn't his day." He was on the outside looking in at pre-entries but made the final field, and his last work was five furlongs in 1:02 at Keeneland, in company with stablemate Formidable Man. He's a 5-year-old by Lost Treasure who cost $87,000 as an OBS 2-year-old. Prat rides from post 6.

Post 7 · T: Donnacha O'Brien · J: Billy Loughnane · ML 3/1

Europe's double Group 1 sprinter. Comanche Brave won the July Cup at Newmarket by a length in July, and his rider said he has plenty of gears. Nine weeks later he came back to take the Flying Five at the Curragh by 1¼ lengths as the favourite, which was a Win and You're In for this race. Donnacha O'Brien rates him a seriously good fast horse who keeps on improving. The stable even discussed running him in the Mile, so 5½ furlongs shouldn't worry anyone. He's well travelled too, with runs in Abu Dhabi, Hong Kong and Saudi Arabia. The key is the ground: O'Brien said in July that quick ground "is very important to him." The 4-year-old colt has Billy Loughnane, aboard for both Group 1 wins, from post 7.

Post 8 · T: Joe Sharp · J: Jose Ortiz · ML 12/1

The claim of the year. Possiblemente was claimed for $50,000 at Woodbine in October 2025 out of a race at a mile and a sixteenth. Joe Sharp cut him back in distance, and in Sharp's words, "it's just made all the difference." The 6-year-old Tale of Ekati gelding won the Grade 3 Jacques Cartier on the Woodbine Tapeta in May, ran second in the Harvey Pack at Saratoga in July, and in September won the $1.75 million Kentucky Downs Turf Sprint by 1¼ lengths to earn his spot here. Sharp likes that he has been "equally effective on many different racetracks." His 22-year-old owner, Taylor Logan, is realistic and hopeful at once, calling this the toughest field the gelding has ever faced but believing he could do it. Jose Ortiz, who rode him at Kentucky Downs, rides from post 8.

Post 9 · T: Saffie Joseph Jr. · J: Micah Husbands · ML 20/1

The Grade 1 winner who loves Kentucky. In Our Time was second to Time to Dazzle in the 2025 Franklin, then won the Grade 2 Giant's Causeway over this course and distance in April. Her big day came at Kentucky Downs on Aug. 29. Saffie Joseph Jr. told Micah Husbands to go for the lead if she broke sharp and nobody else wanted it, and she went wire to wire to win the Grade 1 Ladies Turf Sprint by 3½ lengths, with Time to Dazzle second. Getting the lead will be harder against this much speed. She has been remarkably consistent, finishing in the money 15 times in 20 starts and earning nearly $2 million, and Joseph thinks one turn is her game. Her connections had this race in mind back in April. The 5-year-old mare keeps Husbands from post 9.

Post 10 · T: George Weaver · J: John Velazquez · ML 8/1

Last year's Juvenile Turf Sprint winner. Cy Fair beat the colts that day at Del Mar, and her 3-year-old season has mostly gone to plan. She lost the Limestone at Keeneland in her April return, then won the Grade 3 Mamzelle at Churchill. George Weaver skipped a planned Royal Ascot trip because he wasn't happy with her training. She bounced back to win the Grade 3 Coronation Cup at Saratoga in July by 2½ lengths, and Weaver rated her the top 3-year-old filly turf sprinter around. That left her 5-for-7 with more than $1 million banked. The blip came on Sept. 5, when she finished sixth at 6½ furlongs in the Music City at Kentucky Downs. She's back to 5½ furlongs here, the distance of the Coronation Cup. John Velazquez rides from post 10.

Post 11 · T: Eric Foster · J: Fernando De La Cruz · ML 10/1

The bargain who keeps on fighting. Joe Shiesty cost $16,000 as a short yearling and has earned almost $1.4 million for Eric Foster and his partners. He ran second, beaten a neck by Yellow Card, in the Twin Spires Turf Sprint in May. Then on Oct. 3 he won the Woodford over this course and distance, going head to head with No Nay Hudson and battling back to win by a half-length. That earned him an automatic, fees-paid spot here. He likes to be forward. He led from an outside post in the Shakertown in April before fading to fifth, so expect him to be prominent again. Foster's line on the 5-year-old Air Force Blue gelding: "He's done it at 3, he's done it at 4, and he's done it at 5." Fernando De La Cruz, his Woodford rider, breaks from post 11.

Post 12 · T: Phil D'Amato · J: Umberto Rispoli · ML 12/1

The gelding who finally put it together. Sorrento Sky raced 19 times as a colt, placing in sprint stakes without quite winning one. Phil D'Amato gelded him this summer and saw a dramatic change in him. He won the Grade 2 Green Flash at Del Mar in August by a length under Umberto Rispoli, then won another Grade 2 turf sprint at Santa Anita, his first back-to-back stakes wins. D'Amato's verdict: "gelding him took him over the top." Getting him here wasn't cheap. He wasn't nominated as a foal, so his owners paid a $200,000 supplement, and a new partner came in to help with the expenses. The Irish-bred 5-year-old by Prince of Lir runs for a big group that includes Saul Gevertz and Michael Nentwig. Rispoli stays aboard from post 12.

Post 13 · T: Ralph Beckett · J: Rossa Ryan · ML 20/1

The stallion who came back to work. Starlust won the 2024 Turf Sprint at Del Mar and retired to stud in Australia. He got about 70 mares in foal, but Alex Cole, racing manager for owners Jim and Fitri Hay, said his fertility was disappointing. So back he came to Ralph Beckett, and he's close to his best again. He ran second to Bacio in the Nunthorpe at York in August. Beckett had figured it might take five runs to get him back, so that came sooner than expected. The 5-year-old Zoustar horse has been to this party before, too: he was beaten about a length and a quarter by Big Evs in the 2023 Juvenile Turf Sprint. Beckett is keen on the trip over here: "five furlongs round a bend suits him better than anything else." Rossa Ryan rides from post 13.

Post 14 · T: Karl Burke · J: Jack Nicholls · ML 15/1

The late call from Paris. Miss Yechance came into the Prix de l'Abbaye off wins in a York handicap and a Group 3 at Newbury. She was supplemented for the race and won it by a neck from Shiri under young Jack Nicholls. It was a family affair: Nicholls' grandfather, David Nicholls, better known as Dandy, won the Abbaye with Continent in 2002. The Abbaye is a Win and You're In, and the owners were keen, though assistant trainer James Cowley admitted the turnaround is a bit tight. Karl Burke's plan had been to send her back to Dubai, where she raced last winter over five to seven furlongs on both turf and dirt. Burke says she's small and thrives on quick ground, so a firm Keeneland course would suit. Nicholls keeps the ride from the far outside, post 14.