2026 Breeders’ Cup Turf: Narrative Past Performances, Picks & History

Line: David Aragona’s pre-entry odds (DRF, Oct. 22), set before the draw and before some horses withdrew. We’ll switch to the post-draw line as soon as it’s published.

ITM Staff Pick

Diamond Necklace won her first six starts, including the Pouliches, the Prix de Diane and the Nassau, and then ran third in the Arc from stall 16. Aidan O’Brien says she’s only been able to take a normal horse’s work in the last month, which is a scary thought for everyone else.

Hotazhell, the 50/1 Irish Champion Stakes winner in his final start, is the overlay on our numbers and the one to use underneath. Christophe Soumillon rides Diamond Necklace from post 12.

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Post 1 · T: Willie Mullins · J: Dylan Browne McMonagle · Line 10/1

The defending champion. Willie Mullins, much better known for his jumpers, brought Ethical Diamond to Del Mar last year saying he hoped for a fifth- or sixth-place finish. Instead the gelding won the Turf at 27/1 in a track-record 2:25.45, 1¼ lengths clear of Rebel's Romance. Mullins credits a winter over hurdles with teaching him to settle. This year has been patchier. He was fifth in the Dubai Sheema Classic and ninth in the Hardwicke at Royal Ascot, then got back on track with a head win in the Ballyroan at Leopardstown in August. Last time he shipped to Kentucky Downs and ran second, 1¾ lengths behind Tiffany, in the Kentucky Turf Cup. Mullins has been pointing at this race since the summer. Dylan Browne McMonagle, who rode him to last year's upset, is back aboard from post 1.

Post 2 · T: Aidan O'Brien · J: Ryan Moore · Line 8/1

The Derby that didn't count. Benvenuto Cellini crossed the line 10th at Epsom, but he'd caught a leg in the stalls and was declared a non-runner. Three weeks later he won the Irish Derby by almost two lengths. He was then third in the King George, two lengths behind Kalpana, and Aidan O'Brien said, "We learnt that he gets the mile and a half well." The autumn hasn't gone as smoothly. He was fifth in the Prix Niel, where O'Brien said the pacemaker had been allowed to get clear, and ninth in the Arc after a slow start from stall 1. O'Brien has talked up America since June, calling him "well suited for America — fast ground with pace on." The starts are the worry, and O'Brien says they'll "have to work on that." Ryan Moore, aboard for the Irish Derby and the King George, rides from post 2.

Post 3 · T: Will Walden · J: Jose Ortiz · Line 15/1

The home team's newest Grade 1 winner. Minaret Station, a 4-year-old Instilled Regard colt, won the Bourbon here at Keeneland as a 2-year-old in 2024, and Will Walden says this is the first year they've had him for a full season. He's made it count. He won the American Derby at Churchill in June, finished second to Survie in the Christophe Clement Turf at Saratoga, then broke through in the Joe Hirsch at Belmont on Oct. 1. He beat Far Bridge by a half-length, with El Cordobes third, and kept the race after a stewards' inquiry into the stretch run. Walden thinks he has "learned to become a racehorse" this year, and he says the colt "hasn't lost a pound" all season. Jose Ortiz, who rode him in the Hirsch, stays aboard from post 3. Walden also saddles Rhetorical in the Mile.

Post 4 · T: Miguel Clement · J: John Velazquez · Line 20/1

The reluctant entrant. Far Bridge, a 6-year-old by English Channel, opened his year by defending his title in the Pan American at Gulfstream in March and then didn't run again until the Joe Hirsch on Oct. 1. Off that long layoff he ran Minaret Station to a half-length, and Miguel Clement thought he ran a big race. It still took a change of heart to get him here. In mid-October Clement was quoted doubting that they were good enough to beat the Europeans, and the plan was to skip the race. The connections reversed course, and Clement now calls it "a very ambitious entry, but the horse is doing well." The other worry is the turnaround, which he admits comes a little fast after such a long break. John Velazquez, who rode him for the first time in the Hirsch, keeps the mount from post 4.

Post 5 · T: Charlie Appleby · J: William Buick · Line 15/1

The Turf regular. El Cordobes is a Frankel gelding who was knocked down for 2,000,000 guineas as a yearling, but the sale fell through and Godolphin bought him privately. He's become a fixture in America's big turf races. He won the 2025 Sword Dancer at Saratoga, ran third in last year's Joe Hirsch and then third in the Turf at Del Mar, where Charlie Appleby said he "always puts up a good effort." This year he was fifth in the Amir Trophy in Doha in February, and Appleby says the plan after that winter campaign was to work him back toward the Joe Hirsch. There he was third again, 2¼ lengths behind Minaret Station, and the winning rider told the stewards he'd bothered El Cordobes a little in the stretch. Appleby says the gelding likes "quick and flat tracks there in America." William Buick rides from post 5.

Post 6 · T: Ian Wilkes · J: Brian Hernandez Jr. · Line 12/1

The Blue Grass winner who found a second career on grass. Burnham Square, a Liam's Map homebred for the Whitham family, won the Holy Bull and Blue Grass before running sixth in Sovereignty's 2025 Kentucky Derby. Switched to turf, he won the Elkhorn here at Keeneland and the Arlington Million at Colonial Downs, and he went to Kentucky Downs in September on a four-race winning streak. He was the favorite for the Kentucky Turf Cup and ran seventh. Ian Wilkes blamed himself: "My fault. I probably should have scratched him," he said, adding that it was very hot and the horse is "not a great shipper." The Whithams are chasing a fourth Breeders' Cup win, and their Fort Larned won the 2012 Classic for Wilkes and Brian Hernandez Jr., the same team here. Post 6.

Post 7 · T: Jessica Harrington · J: Shane Foley · Line 20/1

One last hurrah. Hotazhell won the Futurity Trophy at 2, then, as Shane Foley admits, was a bit disappointing at three. This year he's been a different horse. He won the Grosser Dallmayr-Preis in Munich in July, narrowly beating Timeforshowcasing and Wimbledon Hawkeye, then shocked the Irish Champion Stakes at Leopardstown at 50/1, with Wimbledon Hawkeye second and favorite Constitution River third. Jessica Harrington's verdict was that he never should have been that big a price. The plan was Ascot's Champion Stakes next, but the team passed rather than take on Calandagan and Ombudsman. That brought them here, and there's a local angle. The owners are American and, Foley says, "from just down the road from Keeneland." This is his final start before stud duty at Haras d'Etreham in France and Widden Stud in Australia. Foley rides from post 7.

Post 8 · T: Graham Motion · J: Manuel Franco · Line 30/1

The stayer who surprised his trainer. Test Score is a 4-year-old homebred colt by Lookin at Lucky for Amerman Racing, and before this summer he had never won a stakes race beyond nine furlongs. Then he won the 1 3/8-mile Del Mar Handicap by a neck on Aug. 29, a Win and You're In that earned him a place here. Graham Motion admits he always wondered how far the colt wanted to go. The Del Mar win at a mile and three-eighths settled that, he said. Now Motion thinks the extra furlong to a mile and a half "might even help him." He hasn't raced since Del Mar. He breezed five times at Fair Hill, finishing with five furlongs in 1:02.40 on the all-weather track, before shipping to Keeneland this week. Manny Franco rides from post 8.

Post 9 · T: Joseph O'Brien · J: Mickael Barzalona · Line 10/1

The Irish Oaks winner who got the call-up. Johanna Walsh, a 3-year-old Sea The Stars filly, didn't win until her third start, a Leopardstown maiden in May. Joseph O'Brien then took a swing in the Ribblesdale at Royal Ascot, and she was beaten a head. In the Irish Oaks in July she won by four lengths, beating all five of Aidan O'Brien's runners and giving Joseph an Oaks double with two different fillies. Dylan Browne McMonagle said that once he asked her, she had it wrapped up within a couple of strides. The autumn has been quieter. She was well beaten in the Yorkshire Oaks and was a late non-runner at Ascot on Champions Day. She started the week as an also-eligible, and with McMonagle on Ethical Diamond, Mickael Barzalona picks up the ride from post 9.

Post 10 · T: Sir Mark Prescott · J: Luke Morris · Line 8/1

The globetrotting mare's swansong. Tiffany is 6, and Sir Mark Prescott's assistant William Butler thinks she's still improving. She won a Group 1 in Germany in August, then came to Kentucky Downs as the only mare in the Kentucky Turf Cup. She beat the boys by 1¾ lengths, with last year's Turf winner Ethical Diamond second and favorite Burnham Square seventh, and that earned her a fees-paid spot here. Luke Morris says she'd spent the previous year and a half as something of a bridesmaid before that, so the win meant plenty. This is her last race before she's sold, and Morris likes the setup: "I think she will be well-suited to Keeneland." He adds that nothing seems to faze her. Our pace projection makes her the most likely early leader in an honestly run race. Morris rides from post 10.

Post 11 · T: George Boughey · J: Flavien Prat · Line 12/1

The mare who loves Saratoga. Survie, a 5-year-old, was bought for more than $2.6 million at last year's Tattersalls December sale for Michael Tabor and joined George Boughey. She was third against males in the Neom Turf Cup in Saudi Arabia in February and sixth in the Wolferton at Royal Ascot. Then Boughey brought her to Saratoga twice. She won the Glens Falls on Aug. 2 under Flavien Prat, then beat the boys in the Grade 1 Christophe Clement Turf, coming from last to first to beat Minaret Station. She was the first filly or mare to win that race since 1988, and it was a Win and You're In for this one. Boughey said the plan was always to run her twice in America, then "bring her home and prepare her for Keeneland." Prat is back aboard from post 11.

Post 12 · T: Aidan O'Brien · J: Christophe Soumillon · Line 5/2

The filly who's only just learned to train. Diamond Necklace, a €1.7 million yearling, won her first six starts, including last year's Prix Marcel Boussac and, this year, the Poule d'Essai des Pouliches, the Prix de Diane and the Nassau. Her first defeat came at 2/9 in the Prix Jean et Louis Romanet, where Aidan O'Brien says he "backed her up too quick." Then she ran third in the Arc from stall 16. Afterward O'Brien said she ran a huge race and added that "it's only in the last month that she's been able to take a normal horse's work." That's a scary thought for everyone else. She was entered for both this race and the Filly & Mare Turf, and the connections chose the Turf. Christophe Soumillon, who rode her in the Arc and who O'Brien says has always been smitten with her, rides from post 12.

Post 13 · T: George Scott · J: Oisin Murphy · Line 5/1

The colt who keeps turning up. Bay City Roller has been consistent in top company all year. He was second to Almaqam in the Tattersalls Gold Cup, then won the Coronation Cup at Epsom on desperate ground. In the autumn he chased home Daryz twice, in the Prix Foy and then the Arc, where he'd been clear with a furlong and a half to run. Two weeks later he was third behind Ombudsman in the Champion Stakes at Ascot. That's a lot of racing, but he has a history of running well when turned out quickly. George Scott doesn't think the mudlark label is really fair, and after the Arc he raved about both the run and the ride. Scott said in mid-October that if the colt came out of Ascot well, he was coming here. Oisin Murphy, who rode him in the Arc, rides from post 13.

Post 14 · T: Yasutoshi Ikee · J: Tom Marquand · Line 20/1

A son of Deep Impact, with a family connection. Deep Monster is an 8-year-old by the great Deep Impact, the horse Yasutoshi Ikee's father trained. This February he won the Amir Trophy in Doha by a neck under Tom Marquand, who praised how hard he battled all the way to the line. For Ikee it was personal: "it was always my dream to win a big race overseas with a son of that great horse." In May he went to Sha Tin and ran third behind Romantic Warrior in the Champions & Chater Cup, on a day Ikee said was very hot. On Oct. 4 he was fourth in the Kyoto Daishoten back home. He breezed six furlongs in 1:16 4/5 on the main track last week. He's the lone Japanese runner in the Turf. Marquand rides from the far outside, post 14.