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Next up I’ll work through the Grade 2 California Crown Eddie D with you.
#1 JOHNNY PODRES was flying late in the Grade 3 Green Flash but just couldn’t quite get to Motorious. That was a co-career best effort (96) figure wise for this seven-year-old gelding and props to trainer Librado Barocio for getting such a fine tune out of him since the claim back in ‘22. That last race was going five but his best runs previously have been on this downhill course where he’s a listed stakes winner and has a strong mark overall. I don’t love the post but he’s got a solid on-the-board chance, maybe more. Not just a hunch play for anyone who’s ever played the ’55 Dodgers in Strat-o-Matic. 94 tough post. B/C.
#2 FIRST PEACE ran a bang up race winning the listed Wicker stakes at Del Mar early in the meet and then regressed to his previous established standard figurewise in the graded Del Mar Mile. Four-year-old has been in the exacta in all four attempts down the hill. I expect a good trip from the second flight even if I don’t love the post. 96 HFC?
#3 BOSS SULLY just won an allowance and looks a little slow for this. He’s won on the downhill but that was a super easy trip. I think he’s going to have problems with the faster pace of stakes company and looks in deep water to me. X
#4 TWO RIVERS OVER was the shock winner of the Godolphin Mile in Dubai back in March when he scored at 33-1. His prior wins were all against weaker than this and he looks like a better dirt horse than turf horse. He’s a wild card for sure but I’m OK letting him beat me.
#5 KING OF GOSFORD is another with that horse-for-course vibe. He’s undefeated on the downhill with a pair of listed stakes wins. He’s got tactical speed and should have ample stamina now coming out of those longer races. What he hasn’t done is run particularly fast. High 80s, where I project him, not fast enough to win this. But based on the HFC thing and connections I’d love to have him on some tickets, especially if approached double digit odds. B/C type. 88 (might be high).
#6 AIR FORCE RED won with the easiest of situations in an allowance at Del Mar. The race before he was a run off at stakes level. He’s had loads of success on the downhill but with the benefit of easy trips. There will be plenty of competition for the early lead here and that may be his undoing, along with the idea that he may have lost a step. 92 NTL (needs the lead, best speed?). B/C
#7 EAMONN was my selection last time and that didn’t work out. That run at Colonial was probably a little better than it looked and he’s a horse that’s been on my radar a long time. It’s been a long time between drinks and the barn is cold and I can’t really make a logical case. All that said, I am not having him step up and beat me out of everything at 20-1. He’s a watch-type horse and he’s east coast form shipping west so he’ll be somewhere as a deeper backup. 91? B/C
#8 STEP FORWARD is an eastern, stakes-placed runner with a major flaw – all his wins have come either on the front end or just off slow paces that he was controlling. That won’t be the situation here and it makes me against him even though he has forgivable races in the last two. 89.
#9 FAST BUCK as up in the vanguard for the Green Flash but didn’t really finish. He’s another who has only won on the front and he may have trouble getting there with speed to his inside and outside. Then again, he is taking blinks off so maybe he can get a favorable trip from his good post. He’s an X factor but with his low-profile connections perhaps he can be an overlaid price? 90? Chance of good situation. B.
#10 NOBLE REFLECTION didn’t enjoy Kentucky Downs as many horses do not. Put that aside. His Wicker was also a debacle. But when the Santa Anita turf sprints just come into focus you can start to build a case. His career best came on the downhill, albeit with an easy lead. I’m not sure how he classes up against this group but from this excellent post he is a major pace player and I could definitely see him taking down the other speed. NTL X.
#11 BIG INVASION is your likely favorite after his return to form in the (soon to be graded) Harvey Pack last time out. He’s long been a pet of mine, even if I got a little tired of his act earlier this year. He’s the fastest horse in the race and should get a great setup. The lone question is stamina – a quickly run 6.5 could in theory stretch him, but I think his combination of class and late speed can overcome any doubts about that.
99 A.
VERDICT: #11 BIG INVASION should find himself in a great situation and might just be a backable favorite given the full field and questions about the downhill. He’s the top pick and a possible key.
I’ll feather in some others as backups but at least half the money I bet goes through him.
A:
11
B:
2-9
B/C:
1-5-6-7
Opinion of race: B-
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