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Could Chief Wallabee Go Off Shorter Than Renegade?
Two weeks ago on Sky Sports Racing I mentioned that Chief Wallabee “wouldn’t be 16-1 on the day” and encouraged international viewers to take advantage. Sometimes I wish I lived in London full time – and I’m not just talking about the delicious beer at The Kernel.
One week ago, he was 12-1 on the international books and still needed a defection just to make the field. This morning, Chief Wallabee is 6-1 at William Hill and Unibet, he’s the second most popular bet on Oddschecker — ahead of both Commandment and Further Ado — and the people who watched his final workout at Churchill Downs on Sunday are running out of superlatives.
FanDuel TV’s broadcast crew was on the rail for the half-mile breeze in :49.20 with Junior Alvarado aboard. “This horse is under a hammerlock,” said Simon Bray. “He’s about to jump out of his skin,” added Mike Marotta. And former jockey Joe Talamo: “If he would have moved an inch, he would have taken off.”
Trainer Bill Mott wasn’t quite as theatrical, but of course his words carry even more weight. “We did what we wanted to do,” Mott said. “And if it doesn’t work out, then that’s on me.” Then he drew the parallel every Derby fan is thinking about: he felt good about Sovereignty at exactly this point last year.
Then there is the converse situation at the top of the market. Renegade — still the official 4-1 morning line favorite — is drifting at some shops after drawing the rail. On Oddschecker, Commandment has already flipped to shorter than Renegade at Paddy Power and Skybet (9/2 vs 4-1). The favoritism question we raised in yesterday’s edition isn’t hypothetical anymore — it’s happening in the market right now. And it’s a limited ecosystem I know, but in our comments section on YouTube, the vibes seem decidedly against him between the two negative narratives. Right or wrong, our viewers seem fixated on the Pletcher stats and the rail draw.
Whether the tote board agrees on Derby Day is another question entirely. The pari-mutuel pools are shaped by casual money, narrative, and name recognition in ways the fixed-odds books aren’t. But if the workout buzz keeps building and the rail narrative keeps pushing Renegade out, don’t be surprised if Chief Wallabee — a horse who wasn’t even in the field ten days ago — is sitting in the top three betting interests when the gates open.
👉 Derby OddsWatch — updated April 26
🏋️ Sunday Workout Notes
Six Derby contenders put in their final breezes Sunday morning over a fast Churchill Downs strip. A quick roundup follows but remember that if you want detailed reads on ALL the Derby horses’ available workouts, subscribe to Plus for Chris Cupples’ awesome work.
Potente (Baffert): 5F in :57.80 — fastest of 23 at the distance. Martin Garcia aboard, worked with maiden Embry Show. The San Felipe winner is cranked. But is he good enough?
Intrepido (Mullins): 4F in :45 flat — fastest of 71 at the distance. Blazing. Hector Berrios flew in from California just for the work. “It wasn’t what I wanted to have happen,” Mullins said. “He went out a bit sharper than I wanted him to.” That’s the second consecutive work that was faster than the trainer wanted. Make of that what you will.
Incredibolt (Riley Mott): 4F in :47.00, second fastest at the distance. Jaime Torres aboard, galloped out 5F in :59, 6F in 1:13.80.
Albus (Riley Mott): 4F in :49.00 (:24.80 opening quarter). Galloped out 5F in 1:01.80.
Pavlovian (O’Neill): 5F from the gate in 1:03.40. Edwin Maldonado aboard, broke smartly. “I thought he worked great. He was perfect out of the gate.”
Chief Wallabee (Mott): 4F in :49.20 in company with maiden winner Steel. See above — the whole industry is talking about this one.
Also: Cherie DeVaux’s Golden Tempo jogged only. She’s getting her first Derby starter and keeping things in perspective. “I’m just trying not to think too much about it being my first time in the race.”
🎰 Bet the Derby With Us
Our Bet Share for the Derby is open until Thursday. We will be swinging at the Derby LP5 and Superfecta with proper ticket construction. If you want to join us, sign up for our Inner Circle service, which has numerous other benefits, and reach out to let us know you want in. You can do that via inthemoneyplus.com or contact us directly here.
🏇 Preakness Future Wager Is Open
A reminder that the Preakness Future Wager is live now and closes Derby Day. Chip Honcho — who scratched from the Derby field — is Asmussen’s Preakness target. We sat down with Kevin Kilroy from the Churchill Downs Morning Works Show for a deep dive on the horse before the scratch. The analysis still holds for Pimlico.
👉 Chip Honcho Monster Pod with Kevin Kilroy
👉 Full Preakness Future Wager field and odds
From the “Meaningless Math Department”: Post 20 in the Derby has the highest win percentage (10.5%) of any post since 1930. Rich Strike won from there in 2022. Fulleffort starts from 20 this Saturday at 20-1. And if that stat moves you, you might be on the wrong website.
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📣 See PTF and JK Live This Week
Wednesday, April 29 — TWO DAYS · 6:30–9:00 PM
Final Answers: The ITM Oaks & Derby Handicapping Event
The Manchester Hotel · Lexington, KY
Premium open bar, buffet, Friday & Saturday PPs included. $155. Get yours here.
Thursday, April 30 · 5:30 PM
Derby Inquiries with PTF and JK
The Galt House Lobby · Louisville, KY · Free and open to the public.
📄 Free Derby Contender Profiles — 19 Live
👉 Browse all contender profiles
📋 ICYMI
👉 Is Todd Pletcher Actually Bad in the Kentucky Derby? (ITM Original)
👉 Derby OddsWatch — updated April 26
👉 Intrepido Monster Pod with Frank Scatoni
👉 Danon Bourbon Monster Pod with Alex Henry
👉 Wonder Dean + Six Speed Monster Pod with Michael Adolphson
👉 Every Derby Winner of the 21st Century, Ranked — with Duke Matties
🥃 Derby Dram No. 1
Michter’s US★1 Toasted Barrel Finish Bourbon
MSRP $130 · 45.7% ABV · Limited Release
Here’s your primer on what “toasted barrel” actually means — and why it matters. Most bourbon is aged in barrels that have been charred, meaning they’re set on fire long enough to create a layer of carbon inside the wood. That char filters the spirit and drives the classic caramel and vanilla notes. Toasting is different — the barrel is heated slowly without charring, which penetrates deeper into the wood and coaxes out baking spice, brown sugar, and a complex nuttiness that charring doesn’t produce. Michter’s takes their already excellent US★1 bourbon and finishes it in a second custom barrel that’s been toasted but not charred, using 18-month air-dried wood. The result is a bourbon with classic vanilla and ripe orchard fruit on the nose that opens up on the palate into candied almond and a hint of cherry, with a long, warm finish of gentle spice and toasted oak. At $130 MSRP it’s a genuine value — and unlike some bottles on this list, it’s actually findable.
Tomorrow’s Derby Dram: chasing Pappy on a budget.
❓ Today’s Open Question: Chief Wallabee wasn’t in the field ten days ago. Now he’s 6-1 and the workout buzz horse of Derby week. Is the hype real or is this the kind of thing that burns bettors every year?
Previous editions: Edition 17: Who Is the Favorite Now? · Edition 16: I Was Wrong About the Points System · Full archive
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