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Kentucky Derby Draw: Who Is the Favorite Now?
The post-position draw for the Kentucky Derby is often a non-event. Not this year. From the moment the first pill was pulled, a question emerged: will Renegade still be the favorite after drawing the one post — and all the negative history that comes with it? A deep dive into the data is coming later this week.
ITM’s own Nick Tammaro, also the official Churchill Downs morning line maker, held his ground. He kept Renegade at 4-1, and I see the logic of that. Others saw things differently. DRF’s David Aragona — who has kept Renegade at the top of his Derby Watch rankings for weeks — pushed him from 4-1 to 5-1 and installed Further Ado as his new 9-2 favorite. Aragona didn’t abandon Renegade entirely. He made an assumption that the public would react to the draw, and he may be right. The Derby win market is unique — it gets shaped by narratives in a way that other markets don’t. If the key talking point all week becomes “you can’t win from the rail,” that could push enough people in other directions to flip favoritism by post time.
There’s also a subtle difference between what Aragona and Tammaro are doing with their lines. Both are guessing what the public will do, but Aragona, not on the Churchill Downs payroll, is freer to be speculative. Nick’s job is to predict the public, yes, but it’s also essentially a marketing job — to set a line that helps balance the pools without insulting any of the connections. It would be a much bigger deal for him to flip the favorite based on the draw, and it wouldn’t make the people writing the checks look particularly good. Having said that, it’s also a perfectly reasonable line and I’d have likely done the same.
The international fixed-odds books moved fast — and interestingly, in a different direction than Aragona. On Oddschecker, Commandment has been backed to 9/2 — not shorter than Renegade’s 4-1, but closing fast. The books clearly liked his draw in post 6: a statistically favorable gate for a horse versatile enough to negotiate a trip however the pace develops. Meanwhile Renegade held at 4-1 on the best available fixed odds, suggesting the bookmakers still want to keep him safe as favorite.
The most interesting market for value assessment purposes is the Betfair Exchange, where bettors trade against each other rather than against a bookmaker. Betfair has Renegade at 4.1 (roughly 3-1) and Commandment at 6.5 (roughly 11-2). The exchange — which tends to be the sharpest market — still sees clear separation between the top two that the fixed-odds books have mostly erased. Either Betfair is right and Renegade’s quality will overcome the rail, or the books are right and the draw has genuinely leveled the playing field.
Two prices on Aragona’s line stand out. He has Danon Bourbon at 15-1, shorter than anyone else — shorter than the 20-1 morning line, shorter than the 18-1 best on Oddschecker. Aragona respects the Japanese horse. And he has Emerging Market at 12-1, three points shorter than the ML — two starts, two wins, and a clean draw in post 15 for the only undefeated horse in the field trained by Chad Brown.
The overround tells you how seriously to take each line as a predictor. Betfair’s exchange runs at 110.9% — real money from sharp bettors pricing every horse against each other. That’s the closest thing to a true market we have. The fixed-odds books on Oddschecker average 143.1%, meaning their prices are inflated with margin and less reliable as a forecasting tool. Aragona and Tammaro are making educated guesses about what the public will do, so the takeout is already baked into their projections.
The disagreements between these four lines could point to where the value lives on Derby Day. If Aragona has Danon Bourbon at 15-1 and the tote board shows him at 25-1 on Saturday, that’s an overlay worth considering. If Chief Wallabee is 6-1 on the tote but 16-1 on Betfair then he’s likely not any value.
We’ve updated the full OddsWatch table with all four columns and overround calculations. A longer analysis of the draw — including what the post 1 rail means for Renegade historically and why the cavalry charge matters more than the gate — is coming later this week.
👉 Derby OddsWatch — updated April 26
🎙️ Watch: Post Position Draw First Impressions
PTF and JK sat down immediately after the draw to break down winners, losers, and how the pace shapes up with Six Speed from post 17 as the lone confirmed speed horse. 12,000+ views and counting.
📣 See PTF and JK Live This Week
Wednesday, April 29 · 6:30–9:00 PM
Final Answers: The ITM Oaks & Derby Handicapping Event
The Manchester Hotel · Lexington, KY
Premium open bar, buffet, Friday & Saturday PPs included. $155. Get yours here.
Thursday, April 30 · 5:30 PM
Derby Inquiries with PTF and JK
The Galt House Lobby · Louisville, KY · Free and open to the public.
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📄 Free Derby Contender Profiles — 19 Live
Nineteen free written profiles — nearly the full field:
👉 Renegade · Commandment · Further Ado · The Puma · Chief Wallabee · So Happy · Silent Tactic · Emerging Market · Fulleffort · Potente · Incredibolt · Albus · Pavlovian · Chip Honcho · Wonder Dean · Six Speed · Danon Bourbon · Intrepido · Right to Party
📋 ICYMI
👉 Is Todd Pletcher Actually Bad in the Kentucky Derby? (ITM Original)
👉 Derby OddsWatch — updated April 26
👉 Free Kentucky Derby PPs via Equibase
👉 Intrepido Monster Pod with Frank Scatoni
👉 Wonder Dean + Six Speed Monster Pod with Michael Adolphson
👉 Danon Bourbon Monster Pod with Alex Henry
👉 Every Derby Winner of the 21st Century, Ranked — with Duke Matties
❓ Today’s Open Question: Aragona has Further Ado as his favorite. The books have Commandment closing fast. Betfair still has Renegade clear on top. Whose line do you trust most heading into Derby week?
Previous editions: Edition 16: I Was Wrong About the Points System · Edition 15: What Speed Figure Did Danon Bourbon Run? · Full archive
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