Charles Town Picks & Analysis – Friday, March 26, 2021
Edison Hatter — Twitter: @Edison_1999_
Most Likely Winner: Race 5- (6) GANDHI’S CASTLE
Race 1: (1) THORN OF ROSE HILL has been close recently, but still can’t seem to get the maiden broken. He’s 0-for-32, but might have finally found the field tonight to get it done against. He should be somewhat close to the early pace before coming with a late run. (6) COCKY WINCHELL had his best race to date last time out. He makes his first start today for trainer Anthony Farrior, who is hitting at 25% in such spots, and gets the services of leading rider Arnaldo Bocachica. (3) ROCKET COLONY hasn’t shown a whole lot in two career races, but should be given a look in the short field based on the drop from MSW to low-level claiming company.
Picks: 1-6-3
Race 2: (4) BOUNDTOBEGOOD just missed by a neck last time out at this level stretching out to 7 furlongs. He did have a little trip trouble last time out that minorly inconvenienced him. He should be close to the pace again tonight and be close enough if good enough late. (2) MEGA MILLIONS is coming off of a victory last time out by a widening length and a half. However, the field he beat that day wasn’t spectacular and the waters definitely get deeper today. While he is in with a chance, I wouldn’t want to back him at too short of a price. (5) G MAN is best of the rest as he figures to show plenty of early speed and could hold on for a piece in the end.
Picks: 4-2-5
Race 3: (3) HALF EMPTY was a one-paced fourth last time out at Laurel over the 8.5 furlong trip. She takes a significant drop in class tonight and tries the three-turn configuration for the first time. She picks up the services of leading rider Arnaldo Bocachica who will likely be aggressive with her early in a race with very little early speed. (4) MOLLY BOLTS has come with some late run to pick up the pieces in her last two efforts at this distance. On paper, she should be right in the mix again tonight. (5) CHERISH YOUR DREAM also likes to come with a late run and was a very close second last time out in a career-best effort. A similar effort tonight should make her competitive in this spot.
Picks: 3-4-5
Race 4: (1) PRIMAL DESTINY and (2) DIONYSUS’ CHALICE, both from the red hot Kevin Patterson barn, have a superb chance to complete a chalky quinella. Gerald Almodovar serves as the regular rider for both horses and he is riding DIONYSUS’ CHALICE tonight, hence why he earns the nod in the top position. Both are in razor sharp form, having each won four of their last five starts. These top two tower over the rest of this field. It’s a long way back to (5) SPOKANE EAGLE who is best of the rest and can be forgiven for his last start, in which he was very awkward at the break. Two starts back, he was a sharp winner against a much softer field.
Picks: 2-1-5
Race 5: (6) GANDHI’S CASTLE has been up and down the class later since the claim four starts ago. She has been competitive in all three races for trainer Kevin Patterson, including a convincing win by four lengths against claiming company three starts ago. She finds a slightly tougher field here today than in that race, but she should clear to the top early and keep going on the front end. (1) BAYOU BOUGIE has come from off the pace recently, after leading or being close to the early pace in her races prior. She should be competitive based on speed figures in this field tonight, but will need to work out a trip from the rail if she intended to come from off the pace. (5) SINGLE MOM has only raced at this distance twice in her career, but she has a win and a nice closing fourth in those two races. She should be given a look for possible value underneath in a wide open race once you get through the top two choice.
Picks: 6-1-5
Race 6: This is absolutely wide open MSW event where basically all six entries are in with a real chance. Let’s take a chance with a first-time starter in here, (2) WOW FACTOR. She shows a strong work tab in preparation for the debut and should have a serious chance if ready on debut. This field has a lot of decent horses that like to pick up minor shares, but none have gotten off the mark yet, so this seems like the perfect spot for the first-timer to get it done. (6) IRISH KNOCKOUT has been superb in her brief career- finishing in the money in 5-of-7 at this level and over this trip. While she’s picked up a lot of minor pieces, she just hasn’t gotten the maiden broken yet, but tonight is another chance. (5) NEEDACARCALLLOUIE is best of the rest and has some solid back class when racing on the NYRA circuit. She’ll look to build on a solid Charles Town debut effort last time out.
Picks: 2-6-5
Race 7: (2) CAPE LOOKOUT exits a strong victory last time out in wire-to-wire fashion. The waters do get a little tougher tonight, but he should be in the early pace mix and have every chance to get the victory for the new trainer, who is hitting at 67% (2-for-3) in similar spots. (5) KILLA DEE exits some salty races in South Florida and she was very competitive in many of them. If he takes well to the Charles Town oval, he should be right in the mix. (4) MARTIN MAN figures to get a beautiful trip in tonight’s event, just off of the early pacesetters. He’ll need to step up a bit in the speed figure department to be competitive in here, but he should have every chance to do just that.
Picks: 2-5-4
Race 8: (6) SHEAUPTOWNGIRL has just missed in her last two against similar over this trip. She disappointed last time at 1-5, so be weary taking her at a super short price tonight, but she should get the job done tonight and break the maiden status. (2) MISS MORGANTOWN has lost her last three as the favorite, but seems to have found the right field tonight to put in a big effort. She will likely have to come from off the pace with a run, though, as it looks like there are some quicker than her early. (4) SINGING HARMONY is best of the rest in what appears to be a formful race. She gets class relief from the MSW company she’s faced so far and she should be right in the mix if ready to go off the layoff.
Picks: 6-2-4
