Churchill Downs Racing Preview – 5/21/21 – By Eric Solomon

The Friday Card offers nine races, which could be very chalky in the early sequences. There are some favorites this afternoon that feel very logical and they may prove to be tough to beat. Hopefully we can connect the dots with some longer priced horses to make some of the horizontal exotics pay out a little better. The 8^th race is a very good allowance sprint that features some fast sprinters that could be stakes bound after this effort.

Race 1: Top Pick: 6

This $10K maiden claimer is the kind of race where you shrug shoulders because the only certainty is that someone has to win. Spy A Star (7) is 7-5 on the morning line and has speed figures that are better than what the other horses with experience have run. She drops from $30K maiden claimers after finishing up the track here at 7 Furlongs. She did finish third two back at Keeneland going 6 Furlongs, so there’s reason to believe the 5 and ½ Furlong distance will be appealing for her. However, she is 0-11 lifetime, and will go off at short odds, so I need an alternative. I landed on Miss Dogwood (6) making her dirt debut after finishing 8^th with $30K maiden claimers at Fair Grounds on the grass. She drops in class for her second start, which isn’t ideal, as she was a $75K purchase. However, she hasn’t had as many opportunities to disappoint as some of her rivals in here. When Foley and Murrill team up, their joint winning percentage is better than their individual win percentages.

Race 2: Top Pick: 2

The second half of the early daily double is also for maiden claimers, this one carrying a $30K tag. The three favorites in this six horse affair all seem vulnerable. Morning line favorite Fortuna Adiuvat (4) is 0-7 in her career. Second choice, Polyester Bride (1) was just claimed for $50K and drops in for a $30K tag. Run Cookie Run (6) is the co-second choice, and she is coming off at 12 length defeat at this level. Nothing is enticing to me about this trio, so I’ll try to hit with one of the three longer prices. Princess Celeste (2) was never involved in her debut, running against a speedy and salty maiden special weight field at Turfway. She drops and races on the main track for the first time. There’s reason to believe she can move forward enough to beat this group in her second career start. Coinmaker (3) debuts in this spot for Geoff Mulcahy, who hasn’t been successful with first time starters in the last year. However her works are solid at the Thoroughbred Center, and her opposition is weak for this condition. Beyond A Million (5) is a California Chrome filly who finished 6^th against maiden special weight fillies last month at Keeneland. She drops in class and adds Lasix for this start, so there’s enough to think that there’s going to be a forward move.

Race 3: Top Pick: 5

It will be interesting to see how this multi-conditioned $10K claiming race will be bet, as Wesley Ward sends out the class dropping favorite, Aye Aye Sir (1). He’s making his first start on the main track today after two poor efforts at Woodbine and Turfway. His works are on the slow side on the main track, and I’d have to think if Ward thought he’d be runner on dirt, he would have tried before plunging to this level. He’s a hard pass for me. Jack Van Berg (5) should be the favorite, and the presence of the Ward horse here could create a bit of value on this son of To Honor and Serve. He was a winner three back in a multi-conditioned claiming race at Oaklawn with a $16K tag. He was third two back in a starter allowance there before faltering with a better starter allowance group on 4-24. He has been facing better foes than many of these and his recent form is better than most in here. He’s a very logical single to me. On deeper tickets, Celtic Mischief (2) makes some sense as a saver in case the top pick misfires. He struggled with a full field of quality optional claiming/starter allowance foes at Keeneland last month, but does have decent dirt races with easier competition.

Race 4: Top Pick: 6

We have an overflow maiden special weight race for two year olds on the turf, going 5 and ½ Furlongs here. It was hard not be impressed by the debut from Overbore (6) last month at Keeneland. He had a brutal start and was hopelessly out of it at the first call, but he came flying home, closing 12+ lengths to get within less than a length of the winner, while going 4 and ½ Furlongs. The extra distance should be fine, and as a son of Speightstown, coming from the Wesley Ward barn, I have no qualms about playing him on grass today. Three first time starters caught my eye, in both pedigree and AM drills. All three could offer value on deeper tickets, as it’s likely that top pick will be taking the bulk of the public’s attention.  $210K purchase, Tempo Madness (9) debuts for Mark Casse today. He’s son of American Pharoah, who has been producing solid runners in turf sprints. There’s also plenty of turf influence on the dam side. His AM drills are honest, and the 10-1 price on the morning line is enticing. Tuskegee Cat (7) is the other Wesley Ward horse in here, coming in with several drills on the turf in preparation for his first try. Runners sired by Air Force Blue have had a lot off success thus far in his first two crops. Florent Geroux gets the call for Wesley Ward, after not riding for him at all in this last year and a half. Timothy Hamm sends out He Is Ready (4) for his debut. His works at Belterra have been a little slower than what he was showing at Keeneland, however, that is not a deterrent for me, as that track tends to be a little deeper. He’s sired by More Than Ready, who has had plenty of success with progeny racing on the grass.

Race 5: Top Pick: 6

Fillies and mares go 6 and ½ Furlongs in this optional $10K claiming/starter allowance. It’s hard to knock the current form that Lulumaru (6) is in. She was a winner with $12,500 claimers at Santa Anita three starts ago. She was moved from the Ryan Hanson barn to the Robertino Diodoro barn afterwards, and she ran twice for him at Oaklawn. Both races came in starter allowance company, going two turns, and she finished second both times. She ships here at cuts back to a sprint, which should not be an issue for this horses who has hit the board in 14 of 18 tries, with 6 wins in her career. Our Musical Moment (2) is the main danger, making her second start since being personally claimed by Steve Asmussen at Sam Houston in March. She was second to a runaway winner in starter allowance company last out at Oaklawn. She’s a perfect 2-2 at this distance and she could have a another forward move in her today. These two seem like they’ll be the one’s deciding this race, but the nine year old mare, Parking Ticket (7) may be an interesting longshot addition on some larger tickets. She is definitely faster on dirt, running her career high speed figure on this course last September. She makes her first start since finishing last against significantly better on synthetic at Turfway. She makes sense at this level and could benefit from a pace meltdown, as she has a strong late kick when she’s on her game.

Race 6: Top Pick: 6

This multi-conditioned $30K claiming race feels like another spot where some shorter priced horses have an advantage. I don’t think anyone in here is fast enough to run with Verified (6) in the early stages of this race. His only poor effort while sprinting came when he had trouble at the break, and then had his late rally thwarted by being forced to check in the stretch at the Fair Grounds in February. He was claimed by Eddie Kenneally, who is part of the ownership group that sends him out today after beating $20K N2L claimers in the slop at Keeneland last out. Arkansas bred Bebop Shoes (2) is another live entrant from the Renay Borel barn. He had a traffic filled run last out with state bred claimers at Oaklawn. He has tactical early speed, which will keep him close to Verified early on. If he’s comfortable chasing and making a run at the leader, the 6 and ½ Furlong distance should suit him well. He was a nice winner in state bred allowance company, employing similar tactics. On deeper tickets, maybe try longest shot on the board, Chasing Charlie (7). Admittedly, he makes a lot more sense underneath in this race, as his dirt figures are better than some of the shorter priced horses. I can forgive his last in the slop against better here. He hasn’t won in a long time, and he’s never won on the dirt, however, he’s been more effective when dropping to levels like this.

Race 7: Top Pick: 7

The first of a pair of co-featured race this afternoon is an optional $62,500 claiming/N1X contest for fillies and mares at 9 Furlongs on the grass. This race feels like a good spot to try to get some coverage, especially as I think there are some other formful races in this sequence. Stand Tall (7) is interesting to me here at 12-1 on the morning line. She ran two quality races on the grass in Kentucky last summer, breaking her maiden at Keeneland in July on the grass. She followed that up with a strong effort in the Dueling Grounds Oaks at Kentucky Downs, in a race that has proven to be very productive. She tried 11 Furlongs in October on this course and was flat. She made her first start of the year in an off the turf allowance race at the N1X condition at Keeneland last month. She won in a slower time for the condition, but she is likely to run better on grass. I think there are excuses in her last dull race on the turf, and she has an effort that would be very competitive with this group in stakes company. Family Way (6) ran a big race to get second in her North American debut for Brendan Walsh at Keeneland last month. She showed some tactical speed and tenacity, finishing second to a good horse, How Ironic, that day. If she’s able to run back to that race, she’ll be very tough here today. Both Empress Eleanor (5) and Enjoyitwhileyoucan (10) cleared the N1X allowance condition by dead-heating in the same race at Keeneland last month. Both take the step up in class, but I slightly prefer Enjoyitwhileyoucan, since she has been proven at longer distances. She is clearly a better filly when racing on the turf and has a nice three race progression coming into this race. She seems to have gotten better and more consistent since joining the Maker barn. Empress Eleanor jumped up to run a big race in her first start as a four year old last time out. She’s won two straight races, as she moves through conditions. This is a decent step up for a horse with only four career starts. She’s bred to be a good one though, and she’s one that’s worth using on larger tickets.

Race 8: Top Pick: 4

This is a very good featured N2L allowance on the Friday program featuring two very fast sons of Runhappy exiting very quick wins in maiden special weight company. Both Mr Sippi (4) and Happymac (9) ran a pair of okay races as two year olds, but have both come back to run a pair of very strong races to kick off their three year old campaigns. Both horses broke their maiden last out, romping here and at Oaklawn. I think the pace profile of the race leans slightly toward Mr Sippi, as there is a decent amount of speed signed on for this 6 Furlong sprint. He sat off the early pace last out, before making a strong move along the inside and powering home as a much the best winner on the Derby Day undercard. Happymac assumed the lead early from his outside draw in a large field at Oaklawn, going 5 and ½ Furlongs last out. He made the front and kept opening up, crushing his rivals by 10+ lengths. I think both of them have a lot of potential as Runhappy really matured into a great horse in his three year old season. Shadow Matter (8) paired his Beyers in his first two tries at Fair Grounds and Keeneland, breaking his maiden most recently. He looks to be part of the early pace puzzle in this race as well, so he may have to prove he can rate. He is cutting back after winning at 6 and ½ Furlongs last out. Last year’s runner up in the Saratoga Special, Therideofalifetime (10) was awful in his return in a speed laden race at this level last month at Keeneland. He’s shown he’s better than that effort and certainly needed that race, however, he finds another speedy group here, and I’m not sure he’s as good as he was last summer. I’ll play against, unless the price climbs high.

Race 9: Top Pick: 6

$75K maiden claimers on the turf close the Friday card. Three horses seem evenly matched here, but the value, at least on the morning line, is on Alpha Predator (6). He had three dull efforts on synthetic, but moved up in his first start on the grass last month at Keeneland. He ran well with a decent maiden special weight field there, finishing 4^th, beaten less than 3 lengths. This son of Derby winner, Animal Kingdom looks live on the drop here, as the other two horses are a bit suspect. Chad Brown takes over the training of High Deff (7), which may have been a private purchase for Peter Brandt. If that’s the case, making his first start off layoff and barn switch, with maiden claimers is a bit of a concern. His efforts at the maiden special weight level haven’t been bad though. I’ll use him defensively in this spot. Courageously (4) has three strong efforts on the grass, with one miserable dirt effort thrown in his four race resumè. He was a little flat in his last at Gulfstream, which sort of explains the drop to the maiden claiming level here. However, he was a $625K purchase for Oxley, and this would be a substantial loss on investment if he were to be claimed. I’ll be defensive with how I use him as well.