GP Race 9, Leg 1: 4
I don’t get the short price on the morning line favorite #7 Carotari (7/5). He hasn’t won in nearly eighteen months and is a need-the-lead type that seems unlikely to have things his own way. There’s a ton of speed lined up to his inside and it’s much more likely he’s looking at a three or four wide pressing trip. I’ll let him beat me. I also strongly considered #2 Coppola (8-1) as the speed of the speed. My one concern with him is that he seems to run better with Lasix. He’s cracked at least a 90 Beyer in his last four starts with Lasix and has yet to do that in any of his last three races without it.
I’ll be taking a stand early with #4 Panther Island (2-1), who will be tough if he can replicate his most recent stakes victory. His turf sprint form at Gulfstream is superb (minus an effort that preceded a lengthy layoff) and there should be plenty of speed to set it up for him. A 44(!) second half mile workout indicates he’s feeling great and I won’t be surprised if he takes a step forward in his third start off the long layoff. I’m not usually a fan of singling a closer in a turf sprint, but as long as this field remains intact then he should have every chance to get the job done(hopefully as the second choice).
SA Race 3, Leg 2: 2,4
I’m also against the favorite in the second leg as I think he’s probably a better animal on grass. Flavien Prat did an excellent job of getting #1 Kerry Gold (9/5) into the race last time when there was zero speed signed on. He got a soft trip pressing slow fractions and had nothing to offer when the real running started and faded to last. Unfortunately for him, the pace scenario looks similar in today’s heat and I have a tough time seeing this runner turning it around on this surface.
#4 El Rey Dorado (4-1) will be everyone’s wise-guy play in here as he looks like he could have a five length lead down the backside without having to work hard to get it. He’ll have to answer the two turn test, but the massive pace edge he possesses on paper could easily be enough to carry him home. #2 Ship and Scam (8-1) is the price horse I’ll include. He finally got the job done in start number 15 so maybe the lightbulb went on and it’s not like this came up the strongest of races. He ran some good races last summer against better than average Cal-breds and could take a step forward second off the bench. Look for him to be positioned second or third early on the stretch-out and get first run on the closers.
GP Race 11, Leg 3: 6,7,10
I had a tough time with this race as it appears the pace should be fast, but there’s a lack of proven come-from-behinders in this group. #10 In a Jam (4-1) must navigate a brutal outside post position with a short run into the first turn, but he’s my top pick nonetheless because I do think he is the best horse in the field. He’s really improved since stretching out to two turns on the turf and I love that he’s paired up Beyer tops of 79 in those two efforts, indicating he could take a significant step forward in this race. Note 79 is the highest speed figure in the field thus far, so he’ll be competitive even if he just runs back to those efforts. He should be forwardly placed throughout and there’s no one better than Irad to work out a trip from this post. #6 Tifareeh (6-1) is worth a look if you can ignore his dirt races. He dominated a maiden race at Kentucky Downs last September, tracking the pace and blowing away the field late. The second through fourth place finishers that day all came from way out of it so bonus points for being against the race flow. He found the Grade 2 Pilgrim to be too tough, but he was close up to a swift early pace so I don’t want to be too harsh. He has the best late pace figures in the field and Walsh can have them ready off a layoff. Finally, I want to include the other Casse runner #7 King of the Track (9/2). His even running lines going shorter indicate to me that he should appreciate the stretch-out and he should get a good stalking trip(I also like that he beat the morning line favorite two back and is a much better price).
SA Race 6, Leg 4: 3,5,7,8
#8 Exultation (2-1) is the one to beat while dropping from #50k claimers to $32k. Curious drop since he’s a nose away from winning his last five races, but anything close to his best makes him very tough and Rosario is arguably the best turf sprint jockey in the country. #7 Give Me the Lute (5/2) is searching for his fifth straight victory, this time for Kristin Mulhall, who has excellent numbers first start off the claim. He has a versatile running style and will likely try stalking tactics under JJ Hernandez. #5 Barristan the Bold (5-1) ran out of room last time and could turn the tables on Give Me the Lute given the extra furlong to work with. He loves this turf course and would be the beneficiary if the pace really heats up. And finally #3 Silardi (10-1) merits longshot consideration. His recent form doesn’t look great, but they haven’t been using his best weapon and that’s his early speed. Six furlongs might be stretching it for him, but he’s very fast early and the switch to Maldonado indicates they’ll be gunning it early.
SA Race 7, Leg 5: 1,8
#8 Minister Shane (3-1) is my top pick to close out the sequence. He has been a turf horse for most of his career, but has run well in his two most recent dirt starts. He chased home Book Smart at Del Mar last fall, a speedball who rattled off four straight victories at one point and would be a big favorite in this race. No shame in being beaten a couple of lengths by that foe, and his most recent effort was solid as well. He broke much sharper than usual, and got caught in no man’s land as it seemed like the rider couldn’t decide whether to push for the lead or settle and make one run. He finally took back on the turn, but the early pace might’ve taken its toll as he lacked his usual kick and just ran evenly to the wire. I love this outside draw where he should be in the clear throughout and there appears to be enough speed to set it up for his late kick.
I also want to use #1 Hondo Crouch (5-1) for the red-hot Mark Glatt barn. This four year old is still lightly raced and could spring a mild upset on the cutback. He’s recently run well going two turns despite being against the race flow, but I really liked his sprint efforts last summer. He broke his maiden four back at Del Mar from an inside draw and was able to overcome trouble on the turn to draw away from that field in the final stages. Three back he broke from the rail against a much tougher group and encountered trouble multiple times, yet he still stayed on well to finish fourth. The three horses that finished in front of him that day have all returned to win (two of them have multiple wins) and all of those rivals would take a ton of money against this group. His three most recent races have all been against open company and he should really appreciate getting back to state-bred company. I’m hoping he gets overlooked in this spot and could offer some value in the pay-leg.
Ticket:
GP 9: 4
SA 3: 2,4
GP 11: 6,7,10
SA 6: 3,5,7,8
SA 7: 1,8
$48
