Colonial Downs Analysis – August 11th, 2024 – By Michael Domabyl

It’s finally Million Day at Colonial Downs as officials made the proactive move to switch the meet’s most exciting day of racing to Sunday in anticipation of the wet weather late in the week. It seems to have given the track an extra day to dry out from the lingering effects of Hurricane Debby. A total of seven stakes races will be conducted over the rescheduled card with the highlights being a trio of graded stakes races relocated from Arlington Park.

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Selections

• Race 1: 7-10-4-1
  
• Race 2: 2-6-3-8
• Race 3: 2-5-3-1
• Race 4: 9-2-8-11
• Race 5: 2-1-5-4
• Race 6: 4-2-6-3
• Race 7: 7-8-5-2
• Race 8: 5-4-8-9
• Race 9: 1-9-2-4
• Race 10: 3-6-4-2
• Race 11: 1-4-2-3
• Race 12: 8-4-2-9

Colonial Downs Race 1: Magic Token (#7) at 7-1 or higher

Let’s get this party started early with our spot plays on Million day as I’m zeroing in on a couple prices in the lid-lifter. A pair of Trombetta runners are likely to view for favoritism, but I wouldn’t want too short a price on anyone in this field. Incisive Kitten (#1) is very well-bred so it’s concerning to see her offered for $40k and Audibly (#9) wants to launch from far back and I don’t want to rely on one to pass horses at this level. Streetcorner (#10) in a rare opportunity to get a Michael Stidham runner at a price over this track. This Street Boss filly took a notable amount of money on debut on Opening Day of the 2023 Colonial meet to go off at 2-1 in a 13-horse field. Obviously, there’s the feeling that this runner has some talent, but she’s certainly not shown it on the track thus far. However, her last four races have all come on dirt and this sharp mile on grass might just have the light-bulb come on as siblings Tackett and Aurum both were most proficient in turf routes. I’m using her prominently in my play, but made a different filly the top pick. Magic Token (#7) has the looks of a filly whose form is completely dirtied up. She was well-beaten in her two turf attempts, but didn’t have the most comfortable trips either day and that was against open MSW company at Woodbine making this a much easier spot. Her form is further darkened by to dismal efforts on dirt, but I view turf as her preferred surface and the Schoenthal barn can win with a longshot.

Colonial Downs Race 2: Triple Elvis (#2) at 3-1 or higher

The story in the second race is more the horses I don’t want to bet than the one that I do. Freeze the Fire (#3) could be a heavy favorite off the last speed figure, but that number sticks out like a sore thumb and could cause him to be a significant underlay. Classier (#8) could also take money, but I’ve never been a fan of this one’s races since leaving the Russell barn. Bouncer (#4) won a handicap on the Million undercard last year, but doesn’t seem to be in the same form nowadays. That leaves me with my top picks Triple Elvis (#2) who has proven to be in career-best form. He’s got the speed to control this 6f sprint on the front end and the Blair barn has been firing this meet.

Colonial Downs Race 8: Eamonn (#5) at 7-1 or higher

This Van Clief Stakes came up a salty affair with a graded stakes quality group assembled. The conversation begins with Mischief Magic (Ire) (#8) who towers over this field on class. It’s put-up-or-shut-up time for this BC Juvenile Turf Sprint winner as he’s yet to win in the states this year. He should have no excuse this time with pace to run into, but I’m always hesitant to take a short price on a closer in a turf sprint with a large field. I’ll admit to being a bit of a fan of Determined Kingdom (#4) from following this gelding’s career these last few years. He loves it at Colonial, and while his two wins this year have been against short fields, the win two back was over Outlaw Kid who returned to win and is entered in the Troy at Saratoga. I’m using him, but am a bit concerned he might get caught up in a fast pace. I’m going to bet Eamonn (#5) in this spot as I feel this guy’s form is all dirtied up. He was finishing fast in two stakes races to start the year just missing in a race at Gulfstream that is short of his best distance and nearly pulling off a 21-1 upset of the G2-Shakertown Stakes. Since then, I don’t believe he’s got the right trip or setup. He got the wrong trip and ride in the race on the Derby undercard, then was left with too much to do in two stakes races at Monmouth that were dominated on the front end. He’s likely to get the right pace scenario this afternoon, and will be 10x the price of the favorite.

Colonial Downs Race 10: Neecie Marie (#3) at 9-2 or higher

Breeders’ Cup “Win and You’re In” action comes to Colonial in the form of the G2-Beverly D. Stakes with a compact but interesting field assembled. While a case can be made for every runner in this spot, steam seems to be building around Moira (#6) who opted to make the trip down rather than staying home for a race at Woodbine. She ran a fantastic race off the bench in the G1-Diana, nearly running down “loose-on-the-lead” Whitebeam in the late stages. She certainly can win, but I wonder if she’ll actually be better second off the bench after that huge effort. Fev Rover (Ire) (#4) is the defending champion of this race, but I question if she came into this event last year in better form as I haven’t been impressed with either of her ’24 starts. I’m locking in on a filly that was compromised by the pace in the Diana with Neecie Marie (#3) as she might end up the longest price on the tote. I’ve been impressed with the improvement this filly has shown in her 4YO season. She got a facile win over the aformentioned Whitebeam in the G3-Beaugay benefiting from a great ride from Joel Rosario. That was a huge effort to be 2nd in the G1-New York at Saratoga albeit with another great trip as that was as staked of a field assembled thus far this year. Last time in the Diana was anything but a stress-free journey as she was wide all the way around and while she finished last was not disgraced in the lane. I can see her being the forgotten horse at the windows and it doesn’t hurt that Frankie Dettori hops aboard.

Colonial Downs Race 11: Integration (#1) at 8-5 or higher

Another short field is assembled for the G1-Arlington Million, but it is not short on quality. I’ve never been the biggest fan of likely favorite Nations Pride (Ire) (#4), but I’ve gained respect for him based on his efforts this season even though both were losing efforts. He was forced to make a the first move into a wicked pace in the G2-Man o’ War which set it up for his stablemate Silver Knott. It was another donning the Godolphin blue that bested him in the G1-Manhattan, but Measured Time might be one of the favorites for the BC Turf and Nations Pride’s trip was slightly more difficult that day. The wildcard in this field is Ancient Rome (#2) who ships in off a pair of races at Ascot. Hopefully this international participation is a harbinger of things to come for this race as that’s always been a part of what made the Arlington Million great when it was hosted in suburban Chicago. While Ancient Rome’s last race was solid behind undefeated Quddwah, he might be up against it from a tactical standpoint with his two main rivals likely to get the jump on him. I’m on team Integration (#1) for this year’s Million. It would be fitting for this colt to win this event as he won on debut over this track and took the G3-Virginia Derby here just four weeks later. Last time he was reunited with Kendrick Carmouche who piloted him to those two local victories and the pair put together an easy win in the Million Preview Stakes over this course. I’m not putting much stock into that win as a reason to back today, more the fact that the campaign thus far has been setting him up for a peak effort this afternoon.

#TheCheatSheet (Now With Fair Odds!)

Meet Statistics

All
Top Picks: 91-31-17-16 (34%, $2.01); Featured Horses: 26-6-5-6 (23%, $2.44)
Fair Odds Met
Top Picks: 43-14-10-6 (33%, $2.75); Featured Horses: 16-4-4-4 (25%, $3.09)
Grid
Percent of Races Won By: A’s: 53%; B’s: 26%; C’s: 18%; X’s: 3%