After yesterday’s special Wednesday card where Colonial was the star of the show, they’ll have to share the spotlight this Thursday afternoon with the turf festival that is Kentucky Downs. I’m covering both of these tracks for In the Money Media so be sure to also check out my analysis for the racing over there at this link.
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Selections
- Race 1: No Picks (Jump Race)
- Race 2: No Picks (Jump Race)
- Race 3: No Picks (Jump Race)
- Race 4: No Picks (Hunt Race)
- Race 5: 8-5-2-9
- Race 6: 5-9-7-4
- Race 7: 6-4-7-8
- Race 8: 10-9-3-11
- Race 9: 1-8-7-4
- Race 10: 2-8-9-10
- Race 11: 6-2-8-9
- Race 12: 4-3-10-9
Colonial Downs Race 10: Magic Token (#2) at 9-2 or higher
Many bettors might be content to default to Nineteenamendment (#9) in this spot as she stands out on figures and form. The issue with her is do you really want to take a super short price on a filly going a route of ground for the first time off the backs of two consecutive defeats as the favorite. I prefer her main alternative Venomous Vixen (#8) who ran admirably off the layoff last time going a mile and now enters second off the bench for a high percentage barn in Brittany Russell. However, I got even more creative with my top pick and gave the honors to Magic Token (#2). I’ll admit that I’ve had some success with this filly this meet getting the money with her at 8-1 in the Million Day opener. She got a nice trip that day leading comfortably through reasonable fractions, but I see no reason why she can’t get the same journey right back. We often see horses pair up wins at this meet and I found it encouraging the horse she dueled with in the last start, Streetcorner, came back to win the nightcap on Wednesday.
Colonial Downs Race 11: Thursday Girl (#6) at 3-2 or higher
It’s a very similar angle as race 10 that led me to my top pick in the penultimate race on Thursday’s card, though this race became much less interesting after scratches. Thursday Girl (#6) is also entering this race off a victory in a restricted $40k maiden claimer and does so for the same conditioner in Phil Schoenthal. She just broker her maiden going 5.5f and now has to navigate two turns, but I believe she’ll handle it. While this pedigree overall tilts more towards sprinting, the dam herself won going long on the grass and based on this filly’s running lines, she has more of a one-paced feel that might be suited toward this turf route. I view Ida Boss (#2) as the most viable threat to my top pick. She has been running at this level this meet already, but does need some pace help to set up her late kick.
Colonial Downs Race 12: Green Beans (#4) at 7-2 or higher
There are three horses listed between 2-1 & 3-1 on the morning line and of those I view morning line favorite Art of Courage (#10) the most likely winner. This gelding comes into this race off a narrow defeat in a $45k N2L at Laurel and now drops in for $30k for a barn in Horatio De Paz that has been firing this meet. I’m most against Acquired Class (#6) who shows up in Mary Lightner’s barn after being cast off from Peter Miller’s west coast operation. I don’t like taking horses that are leaving his barn and he’ll have to prove to be the same horse off nearly a year away. Both of Karen Godsey’s runners interest me quite a bit in this spot. No Cents Non Cents (#3) just broke his maiden in his last start and is dangerous to win right back. I like that he’s shown versatility with his running style this year, but wish he would’ve put away his rivals by a larger margin last time. My top pick is Green Beans (#4) who rises the class ladder yet again to take on open company this time around. I like that he’s put forth a good showing in all three races he’s run this meet and there was no disgrace running second last out. Based on pace figures, he could be the speed-of-the-speed in this turf sprint which is always a dangerous proposition.
#TheCheatSheet (Now With Fair Odds!)
Meet Statistics
All
Top Picks: 215-63-42-29 (29%, $1.85); Featured Horses: 63-15-8-10 (24%, $2.36)
Fair Odds Met
Top Picks: 115-28-20-14 (24%, $2.24); Featured Horses: 42-10-5-7 (24%, $2.87)
Grid
Percent of Races Won By: A’s: 49%; B’s: 30%; C’s: 18%; X’s: 4%
