After a successful Million day, we’re back in action on a rare Monday for Colonial after this card was moved from Thursday due to the effects of Hurricane Debby. Blink and you’ll miss the races on this card as all the flat events are sprint affairs with the last six races all 5.5f turf sprints.
Follow me on Twitter: @mdomhokie
Selections
- Race 1: No Picks (Jump Race)
- Race 2: No Picks (Jump Race)
- Race 3: No Picks (Jump Race)
- Race 4: 7-4-5-2
- Race 5: 4-2-6-5
- Race 6: 6-2-4-1
- Race 7: 9-11-4-1
- Race 8: 8-5-2-4
- Race 9: 2-12-7-10
- Race 10: 5-6-2-11
- Race 11: 12-7-3-1
- Race 12: 2-11-1-7
Colonial Downs Race 5: Randazzo (#4) at 3-1 or higher
There’s plenty of seasoned allowance horses signed on to contest this 7f N1X over Colonial’s main track. The horse to beat is Jolly By Golly (#2) who is coming off back-to-back second-place finishes with figures that are very competitive. He’s a consistent sort, but doesn’t have much upside after 16 career starts. I’m a little bit more against the other short price on the morning line, Patient Capital (#6), as this guy was drowned by Freeze the Fire in his last start and that foe did not flatter that performance in a race here yesterday. I like Randazzo (#4) quite a bit in this spot as the new face in this group. This 3YO returns as a new gelding off the lengthy layoff, but showed plenty of promise as a 2YO. He won his debut going two turns at Delaware which gives me the confidence connections will have him ready off the break. A with most horses owned by Godolphin, this guy has a big pedigree as he’s by top sire Into Mischief out of Carnival Court who was a half sister to champion Royal Delta and has produced a couple stakes quality runners. Plus, the jockey/trainer combo of Ben Curtis and Michael Stidham has been lights out this meet.
Colonial Downs Race 6: Mufasa (Chi) (#6) at 2-1 or higher
This race feels like the perfect opportunity to oppose some shaky favorites. Whelen Springs (#3) is listed as the favorite on the morning line line as he drops in class and turns back in distance off this lengthy layoff. He certainly has back races that would make him very tough in here, but his last two races were dismal performances and the Shultz barn is just 1/12 with horses off 180+ day layoffs on the dirt. I’m a little more scared of Repo Rocks (#5) who just hadn’t been close to the same horse since leaving the Jamie Ness barn last year, but now he’s back in that trainer’s program and sports a flashy bullet work on August 2nd. However, the fact they tried a turf route with him last time signaled desperation, so I’ll need to see that he can return to form before backing him. I toyed around with picking Lugan Knight (#2) on top as I think one turn races are exactly what this gelding wants. He got back on track last time with a win at Churchill, but got the right setup that day and I don’t love that he was dropped in for a tag. My top pick in this spot is Mufasa (Chi) (#6) who looks to rule over this field like his namesake did Pride Rock. This colt put together a pretty stellar career in Chile before joining the Nacho Correas barn this year. Correas is a trainer that’s had mountains of success with these South American imports with the likes of Breeders’ Cup Distaff winner Blue Prize and G1 winner Didia on his CV. This horse took a notable amount of money in his North American debut to go off favored against a tough N2X field at Churchill and might have just been too close to the pace off the bench. I believe he’ll improve second out for this barn and looks to get the right trip stalking the pace.
Colonial Downs Race 9: Determined Jester (#2) at 4-1 or higher
This is a fun allowance event as part of a very competitive late pick five sequence. I can’t back likely favorite Sol Hope (#6) after that performance at 1-5 last out and will gladly have sand kicked in my face if she wins. I prefer Howboutdemapples (#12) who has been knocking heads with stakes-quality fields in each of her starts this year. These are the same dangerous connections that brought you White Abbario and The Queens M G, so discount Saffie Joseph horses at your own peril. My top pick Colonial specialist Determined Jester (#2) as he returns to the scene of his 35-1 upset of the Rosie’s Stakes two years ago. He also won a race at this meet last year and since then has been facing much tougher company. The Schoenthal barn has proven to strike with longshots here in the past and this filly has shown the versatility to win on the lead or just off the pace.
#TheCheatSheet (Now With Fair Odds!)
Meet Statistics
All
Top Picks: 103-34-19-18 (33%, $2.04); Featured Horses: 31-7-6-7 (23%, $2.67)
Fair Odds Met
Top Picks: 48-15-10-7 (31%, $2.87); Featured Horses: 19-5-4-5 (26%, $3.62)
Grid
Percent of Races Won By: A’s: 52%; B’s: 27%; C’s: 18%; X’s: 3%
