Today’s the big day for contest players with the $2,500 King of the Turf Handicapping Challenge! A jam-packed stakes card awaits us, and so I made those races the focus of this analysis/search for spot plays. Only three days left of the meet from here, so best of luck if you’re trying for the championship belt.

THURSDAY, SEPT. 3 RECAP

Race 1 – Joe Sharp finally got on the board with Jose Ortiz on #8 Lahainaluna, but scored at a measly 4-1. The horse that intrigued me the most on the page, #4 Olivetti at 24-1, didn’t appear to travel well out of the gate and ultimately just put together a mild run, so he really just raced to his odds in the race. The speed did not carry at all in this race as it had in the longer distance races the first two days since pacesetter #2 Payton’s Hammer basically came to a stop with over a quarter of a mile to go, and our other price try, #1 Gettleman exiting steeplechase runs, checked badly from a stalking spot and tired out of the mix. We were right to be hesitant about late runners #6 Let’s Be Frank and #10 Diamond Eyed Jack at short odds, but a horse from off the speed still won though at a price that doesn’t make me feel like we missed anything.

Race 2 – Frustrating race for top call #9 Ditlihi. The horse broke great but was wrangled back and through the shuffle was forced from a rail position to a wide spot all through the turn. I don’t think if he sat closer he would’ve finished better based on how evenly he ran, but he certainly wasn’t going to finish prominently travelling that much ground off of soft fractions. This is the second time I can recall this meet where an AE drew in to win in #14 That’s Fire, but he’s another winner that scored at odds to make me feel neutral about (7-1). And he just barely beat the two chalks in the race, so I feel we took a nice stab and were just wrong. That happens, and is much less annoying when what does come in isn’t too exciting of odds.

Of the outsiders I had noted, #10 Asher Dasher was immediately out of the mix as one that needed to break better at second asking. He didn’t, so whatever. And #6 Greatest Nate put together a level run to miss the board, but he was a super speculative add to the exotics in a race that played to the board.

Race 3 – Bailed out by the backup, #7 Wind Flower, though she was the third favorite of the three 7/2 shots in the race. I gave a better shout to the #6 Turino as the main single, but she also ran wide through most of the race and that maybe cost her an underneath position, but she was not beating Wind Flower by any means. The main hope as a backup was that Wind Flower, in a race with such spread money, still provides a good payoff in the horizontals.

Backup Winner. Yay.

Race 4 – We got a seemingly great setup with #8 Mo Misery, who drifted from near favoritism to be the second choice at 3-1, but I guess the horse got lost staying neck and neck with #4 Circadian through the race and shied away from the battle as eventual winner #10 Pride Rock loomed outside. Pride Rock went off 7/2, so another whatever type of miss, but this one hurt more because Mo Misery showed all of the right things coming into the race and just puked (figuratively speaking) in the lane after a pretty confident-looking ride for most of the way. And Kinnon LaRose’s runner, #4 Circadian, put together a much better run than I thought likely off an even debut on the dirt. I thought he’d get a bit of play and did go off around 7-1, but any bets in his direction really hurt because he got a great ride on the lead and just got nipped.

Race 5 – Well #10 Pretty Tapit put together a rebound run, which was possible though I felt it was an okay spot to try and bet against. Same time, my top call #4 Rose Room got bet to 4-1 from a 10-1 morning line, which was not appetizing. To boot, she had absolutely no reason to lose that race when taking the initiative to run on a loose lead which, sure, maybe she folded because she purely needs a target, but you would hope with the runs she put together that she’d be able to kick after galloping on a dawdle. Low-priced winner came through and we didn’t really get great odds to take a shot against, so not much lost in this spot either.

SATURDAY, SEPT. 5 ANALYSIS

Race 1 | $170,000 Maiden, for 2YO Fillies | 1 Mile (Turf)

This appears to be a pretty straightforward spot where we either get something like 5-1 on #2 Middlemist or ignore the race entirely. Not much on the page really appeals in these other first-time starters, and the chalks on the morning line (#4 Monique En Vol & #7 Viaggio) would make sense as winners, but provide no compelling case to justify taking short odds. I could maybe see trying to fit #3 Ataya into the fold too just given this being a Shadwell runner, but Middlemist has some of the best works on the page and comes from connections that have been doing okay this meet.

Get At Least 5-1 or Pass on: #2 Middlemist (6-1 ML)
Potential Price for Gimmicks: #3 Ataya (10-1 ML)

Race 6 | $1,750,000 Kentucky Downs Turf Sprint Stakes (GII) | 6 Furlongs (Turf)

We start the stakes action on Mint Millions Day with a robust field for the Turf Sprint. I have a tricky time evaluating this race because on paper it seems like a race that would melt down, but there has been no clear bias inside of these Turf Sprints to start the meet beyond your typical advantages of sitting close to the speed; which, duh. We’ll thankfully have the first few races to get a sense of any change in the racing dynamics because this card is the first of the meet where the rail has moved in to 25 feet (the other three days had the rail at 50 feet), so the inside lane could be extra ripe and help the speed chug home.

If we’re presented with a dragstrip, I feel like #11 John the Beer Man could clear a simple lead and land in the right path to keep finding. My problem though is that he’s been great exclusively in New York, so I’m not sure if I’m right to trust that on the ship he’ll still break with the same swiftness. I just presume Carmouche will keep riding him as he has in the last three starts, but I would want odds of around like 5-1 to lean on the presumption that a super speedy race will be a merry go round. Obviously I’m willing to amend depending on how the earlier races run, but I can only see so far into the future.

In the event of a meltdown, the obvious uses are #1 Troubleshooting and #8 Okiro, with Troubleshooting likely having an easier time working a good trip. Troubleshooting will break by the fresh ground and can get away somewhat close if needed, which has shown to be a more potent spot so far this meet than sweeping all the way from last like Okiro might have to do.

Joe Sharp and Jose Ortiz, who have started hitting a roll after a good showing on Thursday, could also have the right horse in the right spot of a pace meltdown in #6 Possiblemente, though he also appears to be a bit below the class of some of the others in this race, making him possibly an exotic use. And I do wonder what #4 Beach Gold will do in this race because he stayed close to quick fractions in last year’s Mint Millions Invitational and still held third behind Epic Ride, but he doesn’t appear to have the same spunk coming into the Kentucky Downs meet as he showed last year. He’s a curious longshot for me that I don’t think is a super likely winner but has form that will make me take a second look if he’s 25-1 or better.

If Speed is Doing Well: #11 John the Beer Man (4-1 ML)
If the Track is Regular, Making this a Pace Meltdown: #1 Troubleshooting (3-1 ML), #8 Okiro (6-1 ML)
Intriguing Longshots/Underneath Uses: #4 Beach Gold (20-1 ML), #6 Possiblemente (10-1 ML)

Race 7 | $2,000,000 Kentucky Turf Cup Invitational Stakes (GII) | 1-1/2 Miles (Turf)

All eyes in this race will be on #7 Burnham Square, who has been sensational since switching to these long-distance turf races, as well as surprise Breeders’ Cup winner #6 Ethical Diamond. Both of these horses have merit to win this race and will take money as a result, so really we’re left with the decision of just shut up and take it or take a little stab elsewhere (unless you’re mapping multis, in which case I honestly probably side more with Burnham Square as an “A”).

The main play against I see is in hoping #3 Dresden Row can avoid traffic to get into a menacing gear. He struggled to stay in a clear lane when Burnham Square got the jump on him in the Arlington Million but closed outside of horses nearing the line to finish third by less than a length while Burnham Square still appeared somewhat held. This appears to be a horse that is capable of similar efforts to the best inside of this race and should offer good odds from the defeat, but I even admit winning this race will be a tough task.

Tough Favorite: #7 Burnham Square (2-1 ML)
Main Counterpunch: #3 Dresden Row (12-1 ML)

Race 8 | $3,000,000 Nashville Derby (GII) | 1-5/16 Miles (Turf)

Aiden O’Brien and Ryan Moore have come to town, so you know this is going to be a difficult race. They bring #6 Causeway, who has just two blemishes on his record with a loss on debut and in his most recent race over at Longchamp in the Grand Prix de Paris. He garners no questions on class, though, since he won during Royal Ascot in the King Edward VII Stakes, and O’Brien has always been a wizard at priming for spots like this.

One of the other Euros, #3 Glacius, is interesting since he’s already raced in North America with a win in the Saratoga Derby last month. He didn’t put together the type of resume over in England the way Causeway did, but I don’t mind the confident win Stateside coming into a big pot like this. He’s going to still be an incredibly obvious choice inside of this race, but if Causeway is on the board at 7/5 I think we could comfortably get Glacius at around 3-1, which feels right. Most of the North American contingent will have to take a huge leap forward to even keep up with the top side of the Euro invaders, so this may just be that simple of a race.

Main Play Against the Favorite Who Probably will Still Win This Race: #3 Glacius (4-1 ML)

Race 9 – $1,500,000 Kentucky Downs Ladies Turf Stakes | 1 Mile (Turf)

Can we beat #2 Classic Q? Probably not.

Can We Beat Classic Q? Probably Not: #2 Classic Q (4/5 ML)

Race 10 – $1,500,000 Music City Stakes (GII) | 6-1/2 Furlongs (Turf)

Cy Fair is a very good horse. I’m really unsure who stands a chance to beat her beyond the horse that finished runner-up to her last time at Saratoga, #10 Sapphire Beach. But she bled in that race and in her graded stakes try before that, so she may struggle to be a win candidate because of that obstacle. This is seemingly a slam-dunk spot for Cy Fair, then. I am giving a little look for other gimmicks to #6 Lion Lake since she raced well over this track on debut as a 2yo in a maiden and rallied well in her lone start going one turn, so she may be able to produce an alright run on the cutback to hopefully add some zest to an otherwise chalky outcome.

Oh, but I will say I will absolutely fade #8 Percy’s Bar. She likely takes more play than I find appetizing in a spot like this where she has to prove a new dimension from a potentially disadvantageous spot of the race (really off the speed).

I Can’t Imagine Who in This Race Steps Up to Beat: #1 Cy Fair (6/5 ML)
Maybe a Price to Incorporate: #6 Lion Lake (12-1 ML)
Fade: #8 Percy’s Bar (5-1 ML)

I hope to have been of service for this edition of spot plays that basically just came down to “well, the favorites do have shots.” I apologize for not having any more extravagant of a sniff – that’s the races we’re being dealt, so I’m doing my best. And I hope you do your best to win in the King of the Turf Challenge, even if it means I’ll be wrong about a race or two. What matters is your money landing.