Monmouth Park Full Card Analysis – Saturday 9/5/26 – By Eric Solomon

Labor Day Weekend typically signals the end of the summer at the Jersey Shore. Monmouth Park will run one more weekend after this before passing the torch to the Meadowlands for the all-turf meet there in September and October. We’ll begin the final five days of the meeting with an eight race this afternoon, highlighted by the $100K Sapling Stakes for two year olds going one mile on the dirt. Danny Gargan brought Dornoch to this race in 2023 as a maiden where he finished second. He would go one to win the Belmont and the Travers Stakes in 2024. He has another well-regarded maiden, Gorillaz, who is scheduled to make his second career start in this race today. The first of eight races this afternoon is set to go off at 12:50 PM (EDT).

I’ll be covering the Monmouth Park meet for the 6th consecutive year on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

We’ll start things off with a six furlong sprint for fillies and mares in a $25K-$20K maiden claiming race. The two runners bred in New Jersey are eligible to run without the risk of being claimed. My Alena Marie (#1)is one of those runners, and she’s had quite the trouble lines in her first two starts. She’s back sprinting on the dirt, which might be what she’s going to do best. I can forgive her first two starts and could see her running a better race with a normal trip today. Tiz a Smokeshow (#4) makes her third start off the claim for Scott Lake. She was a solid second in a similar race at Parx in her most recent start. That was likely her best effort to date so if she can run back to that, she’ll be in good shape here. On deeper tickets, I’ll toss in Dylan Rose (#7). She’s taken a while to get going, but she looked like she turned a corner in her last start. Rory Huston’s horses tend to improve with more starts, and she’s starting to show a decent foundation. She’ll still need to improve, but I could see her moving up in this race at a decent number. 

Race 2:

The Early Pick-4 begins with a beaten $5K claiming race with six runners going six furlongs. This is an odd race because you have some horses coming on lengthy breaks and some horses cutting back from several consecutive route races. I think the pace could be strong on the front end in this race. Noble Honor (#3) hasn’t been seen on the track since 2023 and he had early speed back in his day. Levee Way Dry (#4) has some early lick and lately, Venezuelan Triumph (#2) has been quite fast early on in route races. I don’t really trust any of these. While his recent form isn’t great, I landed on the nine year old gelding, Megan’s Honor (#6)as the top pick. He’s been on sealed race courses in three of his last four tries, which could explain some of his duller efforts, especially for a horse that likes to come from off the pace. He ran well two back on a fast strip against open $5K claimers at Delaware. He’s a six time winner at this distance whereas the rest of the field has a combined three wins at six furlongs. Cassation (#5) owns one of those wins, but this New Jersey bred is only 2-44 in his career. Still, he has banked over $214K in earnings on the track. This will be the softest field that he’s seen in his career, so he has that going for him. I don’t love him as the favorite, but he fits well from a pace standpoint, so I think he can be used. 

Race 3:

This is a $150K N3L claiming race for New Jersey bred fillies and mares going six furlongs. We’ve seen more races like carded this year at this meet, and while they give some state bred horses an opportunity to run with a hefty price tag, there typically tends to be a standout horse in these fields. That is the case with My Two Sophia’s (#2) who has struggled to win against tougher fields after winning the first two starts of her career. She cleared in the state bred first level allowance condition in her second career start in 2024 and has been kept out of the Winner’s Circle since. She has consistently faced tougher company though, so this figures to be the softest field she’s ever faced. She was claimed for $17,500 at the Spa last summer in a race where she just missed. She has placed in state bred stakes races, running second and third in the Eleven North Handicap in the last two seasons. She’s classier and better than this group and at short odds, I’m not going to try to beat her. Carats Forever (#3)gets the backup slot in this race, making her second start off the layoff today. Her best race gets her close with the top pick, but it’s been awhile since we’ve seen that from her. I do see her as a candidate to run a better race today though. 

Race 4:

11 two year olds are slated to go a mile on the turf course in this maiden special weight race. There are only two races carded for the turf today and both will be run on a course where the rails are set at 12 feet. I think Sushi Party (#4) makes a lot of sense in this race for Graham Motion. He’s a half to Cruise the Nile, who debuted on the dirt before breaking his maiden in his second career start when going  one mile on the turf. This son of Yoshida, who was a winner on the turf in his second career start, ran okay in his debut on the synthetic at Presque Isle. He figures to move forward in his second career start on the turf today. I think having that race under his belt gives him an edge over the Chad Brown debut runner, Proper Jack (#7), who figures to be the favorite. I’ll back up with that one because Brown’s horses have been so good here in maiden special weight races at this meet. However, the pedigree for this one isn’t really screaming turf. I’ll put Vicky Royal (#11) on the B line with him in this spot. This colt was bred in Uruguay by T.H. Approval. That one was a multiple graded stakes winner in turf marathon races. He won the 14 furlong San Juan Capistrano twice, so it’s not surprising that his son wanted no part of a six furlong dirt race in his debut. The mile on the turf might still be a little short, but I do think that he’ll move forward in this spot. 

Race 5: 

The Late Pick-4 starts off with a $7,500-$6,500 N2L claiming race for fillies and mares going six furlongs on the main track. There’s some rough form in this race and some of the other short priced runners in this spot have been far from their best of late. While at this level, I wouldn’t be shocked to see some form reversal from either Mya Papaya (#2) or Seeking Serenity (#3), I’m going to side with consistency and lean into the favorite, Cool Spite (#5) in this spot. She has been facing significantly better competition than the other seven runners in this field, despite racing exclusively against New Jersey breds for the last two seasons. She’s been battling in those races, but she’s a cut below the kind of horse that typically wins a state bred N1X here. It’s not uncommon for New Jersey based trainers like Chuck Spina to drop these kinds of horses into these lower level open claiming races, and when they do, the horses typically respond. I trust her the most to be finishing well in the final furlong. Seeking Serenity will be the backup for me. She beat a soft field two back to break her maiden with $12,500-$10,500 maiden claimers. Devon Dougherty claimed her that day and tried her at two turns against a similar group last time out. She showed a little speed but faltered badly, in a race that was won by a New Jersey bred mare that was 1-35 going into that contest. Luis Rivera sticks around to ride and I think she has enough tactical speed to keep Mya Papaya honest in the early stages. 

Race 6, The $100K Sapling Stakes:

Two year olds will go one mile on the dirt in the featured race this afternoon. We saw a strong effort from Emphatic, a Colonial Downs shipper, in the Sorority Stakes (which is the filly counterpart to this race) last weekend and I like a pair of invaders in this race today. I landed on Hes Stealing Mylady (#7) on top in this race. He debuted at the end of May and was a handy winner at Horseshoe Indianapolis for Aaron West. He was given a little time before resurfacing at Evangeline where he faced state bred foes in a small stakes race there. He didn’t have the cleanest dispatch and was a little green. However, he still closed well to get into third that day, beaten less than two lengths as the favorite. He likely needed that race, and I think it will set him up nicely for his first try at two turns today. He’s from the freshman class of Life Is Good and these horses have been making a favorable impression on the track so far. Despite being bred in Louisiana, this one fetched $200K at the Keeneland September Sale last fall. While he’s eligible for some of the state bred stakes that are going to be on the table at the Fair Grounds over the winter, I think the intentions with this one are to try to see where he fits with open company. I like the stretch out for him in this spot along with the addition of blinkers, and both of these angles have been strong plays recent for West’s runners. The dam was a graded stakes winner at two turns on the dirt and the first foal to race from her has multiple stakes wins in Louisiana bred stakes races. The other one to notice here is the Saratoga invader, Gorillaz (#2) for Danny Gargan. This one was well-backed in his debut in one of the faster maiden races at the Spa this summer. He was 4th that day, beaten eight lengths. I think Gargan wants to get him going at two turns, so facing winners here at Monmouth makes a lot of sense. He made the same move a few years back with Dornoch, who ran in this race as a maiden. He’s a half to Magnitude, so I’m thinking we’ll see his best efforts in dirt route races. I’m expecting a better outcome from him in this race. 

Race 7:

Fillies and mares will go 1 1/16 miles on the turf in this beaten $16K-$14K claiming race. Only You (#5) is the lone two time winner in this contest as the other runners all qualified under the N2L condition. She was a handy winner against similar last time out, so she’s going to be on my tickets in this race, however, I’m going to try a bit of a price and make Bashful Baby (#10) the top pick here. The trouble lines for her two back stand out like a sore thumb in a race where she broke her maiden in a turf sprint. I’d encourage you to go back and watch that race because I think the visual of that race is quite impressive. She absolutely blew the break, spotting the field at least five lengths in a turf sprint. She raced up on heels and was forced to steady multiple times in the first ⅜ of a mile. She handled the misfortune like it was nothing and came with a five wide bid to easily overtake the leaders and drew clear to win by a measured length. She did not beat a great field that day, but visually, she looked like a superior animal when compared to her competition. She was claimed out of that race and she ran on the dirt in her last start, which felt very weird to me. Kelly Breen claimed her that day and gets her back on the grass while trying two turns for the first time. Jose Ferrer is going to have to avoid losing too much ground coming out of the chute, as post 10 in these 1 1/16 mile turf races out of the chute is no picnic. However, after seeing what she overcame to score in her last turf start, I’ll be willing to take that risk with her here. Only You was clearly the best in a similar race here four weeks ago. She comes back in the same spot and switches Edwin Gonzalez for Daniel Centeno, which feels like an even trade to me, especially on the grass. She has tactical speed and figures to run back to her last race where I suspected she was going to improve. If she does, she’s going to be right there at the end today. I’ll use a pair of lightly raced horses on the B line in this race. Our Marni (#4) ran a big race when trying the turf for the first time in a sprint here four weeks ago. She was a little green in the stretch, but she got up late to win from off the pace, which is not an easy task when going 5 ½ furlongs here. She clearly moved up on the grass and I like horses sired by Tiz the Law when they stretch out on the turf. Cocoa Mills (#1) is a Delaware invader that should take some money in this race. She has two strong efforts on the turf there, both coming at two turns. She does figure to take a step forward in this race today, but at short odds, I am a little weary of Delaware shippers coming here on the grass for the first time. The course at Delaware is kept much longer and plays very different to the turf course here, which is typically short and firm. I’m more likely to back a Delaware shipper at Monmouth as opposed to a Monmouth shipper at Delaware though. I think that course there is more demanding and sometimes the speedy horses that fare well on this course don’t have the same level of success. 

Race 8:

This optional $40K claiming/N2X allowance race is a nice way to close out the Saturday card. I’m going to side against the two shortest prices in this race, Khozeiress (#5) and Cool Intentions (#7). Khozieress has been in a pattern of races where he regresses after putting up the mid-80’s Beyer. While Pompay gave him a little extra time for this race, I’m not sure I want him as the favorite, especially while he’s in the midst of a 17 race losing streak. Cool Intentions meanwhile is coming back after an 11 month break. He showed a lot of potential last year, so I find the fact that he’s entered with a $40K claiming tag, especially when considering his $285K price tag at auction, a bit concerning. I prefer another runner trained by Jorge Delgado in this race, and that’s Noble Heritage (#3). He’s had a strong meet and he’s a three year old colt that continues to get better. He had his number put via DQ in a three horse N1X race that was taken off the turf. Normally, I’m leery of efforts in spots like that, but he ran a big race against a nice horse and was locked in battle throughout the length of the stretch where neither runner gave in. His pattern suggests that he’s sitting on a bigger effort and I like the way he fits with this field from a pace perspective. I’ll also be suing both runners coming out of the Charles Hesse Handicap here two weeks ago. Happy Offering (#6) was about three lengths better than Forever Chocolate (#4), who was 9-1 that day. I do think Forever Chocolate is back to his better form now and when he gets there, Rory Huston has been able to get him to stay there. There’s a decent amount of speed signed on for this race, so he might be able to work out a sweet trip. Happy Offering was the winner of that state bred handicap race and he’s been having a great meet this summer at Monmouth. He’s already visited the Winner’s Circle here three times, so I feel like this is a good spot to dabble in open company for the first time since breaking his maiden at Penn National  last winter. 

Meet Statistics: Top Pick Winners 86/319 (27.0%), $514.10 ($1.61 ROI)

Turf Data for Each Rail Setting

I kept data from every turf race at the 2024 and the 2025 meeting to see if there were any trends on the turf at any of the various rail positions. I tried to quantify the data below and in 2024, it appears that the farther the rails go out, the more fair the track plays. Lead indicates that a horse won the race in wire to wire fashion. Stalk indicates that they were within five lengths of the leader at the first call in the race. For the purposes of this data set, a closer is a horse that rallied from five lengths or more behind the leader at any point of call in the race. The closer stats are listed next to the rail settings. I’ll continue to track this data for 2026 to see if this trend continues. 

0 Feet (2026)

12 Feet (2026)

24 Feet (2026)

36 Feet