The calendar turns to August as we begin the fourth week of the meet at Colonial Downs. Once again there’s a few jump races that precede the flat portion of the card. We’re hoping to maintain the momentum we’ve had in this space over the past couple weeks as the meet statistics have been substantially profitable. This is a perfect statistical representation of the power of fair odds.
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Selections
- Race 1: No Picks (Jump Race)
- Race 2: No Picks (Jump Race)
- Race 3: No Picks (Jump Race)
- Race 4: 5-3-6-7
- Race 5: 6-3-2-8
- Race 6: 6-3-9-7
- Race 7: 6-8-9-2
- Race 8: 3-4-2-11
- Race 9: 5-6-9-8
- Race 10: 6-8-7-3
- Race 11: 3-9-4-10
- Race 12: 5-10-9-6
Colonial Downs Race 6: Prinsipito (#6) at 4-1 or higher
Past experience is lacking for most of the field in this sixth race as these juveniles sprint on the grass while racing for the $50k tag. Of the ones with prior races, Chado (#3) is the most logical win contender. I was on this colt in his last start where he ran into a buzzsaw in Curahee who ran off the screen. He can win, but I wanted to look at another options. I landed on a first-time starter in this race with Prinsipito (#6). Munoz’s barn has pretty good numbers with this move as he’s 3/18 (17%, $2.58 ROI) debuting 2YO’s in turf sprints. His charges often possess an abundance of gate speed which is always dangerous in spots like this. He’s a full-brother to Lookin to Strike who was G3P and banked over 300k in his career racing primarily on turf and synthetic.
Colonial Downs Race 7: Patrick’s Promise (#6) at 9-2 or higher
The 7th will be the fourth consecutive race for 2YO’s to start the flat portion of the card and also the most interesting to me from a betting perspective. Morning line favorite The Brigade (#2) got bet heavily on debut for Casse down at Gulfstream, but really never picked up the bit finishing well-back in third. That may have been a decent heat though as the second-place finisher came back to win. Tony Eclipse (#8) feels like a well-meant firster for the Brittany Russell barn. This colt is by powerhouse sire Not This Time who wins with an astounding 19% of his 2YO FTS’s. Russell’s barn has decent enough numbers with debut runners and has been on fire to start the meet. My top pick comes from a different barn that has been going well and seems to have chosen the right runners to bring down to Colonial. Patrick’s Promise (#6) debuts for top connections with Christophe Clement the conditioner. This barn has amazing numbers with a move most outfits struggle with. Over the last five years, Clement’s stable is 17/77 (22%, $3.65 ROI) with 2YO’s debuting long on the grass. This colt goes out for one of Clement’s top clients in Robert S Evans who also campaigned this colt’s sire Tonalist.
Colonial Downs Race 11: V Inspired (#3) at 6-1 or higher
The scratch of Caladium (#2) likely makes Queen Valentina (#9) a heavy favorite in this spot as she towers over this group on paper. She should win this race if she shows up with a representative effort as her turf sprints at Gulfstream would drown this group. However, I don’t really want to stomach what could be close to even money on a filly taking a precipitous drop like this. I’m taking a shot with V Inspired (#3) who is listed at 20-1 on the morning line, but even slightly less than half of that would be fair odds on her. This filly had no chance on debut racing in a mile dirt race, but took some money to be sent off at 9-1. She showed a touch of ability by being up with the vanguard early on before tiring badly. It’s a full makeover for this spot as she gets Lasix for the first time here, cuts back in distance, switches barns and surfaces. I see enough turf in her pedigree to be effective as sire V.E. Day is by turf champion English Channel and her dam won a MSW on grass. The Godsey barn points for this meet each year and the filly sports a bullet work on the tab.
#TheCheatSheet (Now With Fair Odds!)
Meet Statistics
All
Top Picks: 71-25-14-14 (35%, $2.26); Featured Horses: 21-6-4-6 (29%, $3.02)
Fair Odds Met
Top Picks: 33-12-9-5 (36%, $3.35); Featured Horses: 13-4-4-4 (31%, $3.80)
Grid
Percent of Races Won By: A’s: 52%; B’s: 30%; C’s: 14%; X’s: 4%
